VENEZUELA: TWO POLLS CONFIRM POLARIZATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001539

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: TWO POLLS CONFIRM POLARIZATION


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) President Chavez would lose a recall referendum,
though his support remains strong amidst increasing
polarization, according to two polls conducted in March. One
poll suggests Chavez would be revoked 59-41 percent, while
the other suggests he would be revoked 53-40 percent. Both
polls show Chavez' overall support is steady at 41 percent,
and thus suggest Chavez would be a very strong contender in a
post-referendum presidential election. End Summary

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Datanalisis - Situation Stable
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2. (U) Datanalisis conducted its poll, published in the
Caracas daily El Universal on May 6, from March 17 to 21 with
a sample of 1,290. President Chavez has a personal approval
rating of 41.5 percent, which has been steady in Datanalisis
polls since November 2003. The number of people describing
themselves as Ni-Ni (in favor of neither the opposition nor
Chavez) declined from 38.2 percent in December 2003, to 30.2
percent, while self proclaimed Chavistas rose from 24.5 to 28
percent, and opposition from 32.8 to 37.4 percent.


3. (U) The poll shows 76.9 percent of those asked were
somewhat or very disposed to vote in a recall referendum. Of
these, 59 percent would vote to recall President Chavez, and
41 percent would vote to retain him. Datanalisis shows a
steady decline in disapproval for Chavez from 57.2 to 54.8
percent between November 2003 and March 2004.


4. (U) According to Datanalisis support for the CNE has
fallen from 67 to 44 percent from December 2003 to March

2004. Support for the armed forces has fallen from 61 to 44
percent. Chavez and the judicial system have held steady at
41 and 43 percent respectively. The Catholic church was the
most respected institution, at 73 percent.

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Consultores 21
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5. (U) Consultores 21 poll, which was obtained by the
Embassy, was taken from March 19 to 30 with a sample of
1,500. It shows that Chavez would be recalled 53-40 percent,
compared with 52-43 in December 2003. Chavez would also be
the first choice in a hypothetical presidential election for
37.5 percent of the voters, followed by Enrique Mendoza, at
17 percent. The Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) was the
first choice of 31 percent of those polled, while opposition
parties were chosen by 40 percent and 29 chose neither or
none.


6. (U) 15 percent of those polled said they agreed with
Chavez, whatever he said, while 26 percent agreed with him,
but admitted that he could be mistaken. nine percent agreed
with the opposition, whatever they said, while 30 percent
supported them, but admitted they could be mistaken. This
poll gives a 41 to 39 percent majority for Chavez, while 17
percent declared themselves Ni-Ni.


7. (U) 35 percent of those polled indicated that someone in
their household had benefited from one of the GOV's social
plans. The acquisition of goods of primary necessity was
cited by 42 of those who had received help, while 55 percent
cited one of the educational programs. Those polled were
evenly divided on whether these plans are meant to help
people, or control and indoctrinate them, 48 to 48 percent.


8. (U) 41 percent of those polled said that the opposition
should keep fighting if the recall referendum did not take
place, while 53 percent said they should wait until the 2006
presidential elections. Of those who wanted to keep
struggling, 39 percent indicated taking the streets and
protesting as the best tactic. Only four percent favored

armed rebellion. Overall, 85 percent of respondents thought
there was political violence in Venezuela, and 82 percent
said defending ones beliefs did not justify violence, against
14 percent who thought it did.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) President Chavez's popularity rating in these two
polls constrasts with earlier polls that suggested Chavez'
support was slipping to around 30 percent. In both polls
Chavez is at 40 percent, while the opposition is still
divided. The polls indicate that Chavez would lose a recall
referendum if one were held, but would be formidable if
Presidential elections were held instead (and if Chavez were
a candidate in a post-referendum election.) The MVR has the
most support of any one party by far, though in theory an
alliance of all the opposition parties could defeat it.


10. (C) We suspect these and other polls may underestimate
to some extent Chavez' support among the poor and very poor.
In addition, in a dynamic, media-driven electoral situation,
Chavez's charisma and tactical smarts -- and control of
government -- would help him.
SHAPIRO


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