VENEZUELA: POTENTIAL FRAUD IN THE APPEALS PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001507

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: POTENTIAL FRAUD IN THE APPEALS PROCESS

REF: A. CARACAS 1444


B. CARACAS 945

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Although the opposition has agreed to participate in
the National Electoral Council's (CNE) signature appeals
process ("reparos") on May 27-31, which if successful will
prompt a recall vote against President Hugo Chavez, most in
the opposition do not expect a fair and transparent process.
The CNE already rejected 375,000 signatures on questionable
grounds and will not permit the signatures to be appealed.
Chavez opponents also worry that the CNE will manipulate
other aspects of the process -- such as identity cards, daily
tally sheets, and on-site computers -- to knock out
signatures. They also fear the GOV will continue to convince
and otherwise intimidate signers to withdraw their names.
Combined, these efforts may be sufficient to whittle enough
signatures away from the opposition's potential thin margin
of victory. End summary.

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Fool Me Once...
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2. (C) The Carter Center and OAS released a statement April
30 stating that the National Electoral Council (CNE) had put
in place the "necessary guarantees" for citizens to reaffirm
or withdraw their signatures from the petition for a recall
referendum against President Hugo Chavez. While the
international observers naturally want to instill confidence
in the May 27-31 appeals process ("reparos"),most in the
opposition are convinced that the GOV will use every
available method to prevent the referendum. After watching
the CNE prune back the 3.4 million signatures collected last
year to 1.9 million, Chavez opponents are wary of this next
stage of the referendum process. The CNE's public approval
ratings reflect this suspicion, falling to 40 percent in
March while disapproval reached 56 percent, according to one
poll. Fifty-one percent of those polled believed the GOV had
too much influence over the CNE; only 27 percent believed the
CNE is operating independently.

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Rejected Without Appeal
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3. (C) Most difficult to swallow for the opposition is the
CNE's rejection of some 375,000 signatures outright, with no
chance of appeal, for a variety of reasons, some justified,
some not. The NGO Sumate told the Ambassador that about
250,000 of these signatures should have been eligible for
appeals. For example, a viewer called in during a news show
featuring Sumate to complain that her signature had been
rejected without appeal for an incorrect date of birth. The
Sumate reps pulled up a copy of the signature form and
compared the information with the electoral registry, which
matched perfectly. Another press report showed an identity
card of a man dead 25 years but whose name appears in the CNE
website as "rejected, with right to appeal." While the
signature was possibly entered fraudulently with the
deceased's information, how this signature passed to the
appeals category is a mystery.


4. (C) Coordinadora Democratica (CD) spokesperson Jesus
Torrealba told poloff May 3 these rejections are becoming a
"severe problem" for the CD, not just because of the
numerical loss of signatures but also because CD negotiators
had to agree to the figures to advance on the appeals
process. Torrealba said the CD is considering a nationwide
protest at the state offices of the CNE to protest the
exclusion of these signers. Also, he said, some opposition
members are considering legal action. Torrealba admitted
that these moves are a way to express frustration rather than

to force the CNE to accept the signatures.

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Similar Handwriting
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5. (C) During a CD briefing for the diplomatic corps on May 4
attended by the Ambassador and Polcouns, Alejandro Plaz of
the NGO Sumate highlighted that the CNE sent 956,388
signatures to appeal because the signature forms were filled
out, but necessarily signed, in the same handwriting (the
"planillas planas"). Sumate concluded that 54 percent of
these signatures were not made with similar handwriting and
should have been validated. Plaz said an independent audit,
reportedly carried out by an unnamed European firm, validated
Sumate's analysis. (Note: The audit reveals that,
regardless of the fairness of applying a new criteria after
the fact, the CNE did not apply it consistently. Validating
even half of these signatures would have put the opposition
just short of the necessary 2.4 million threshold.)

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National Identity Card Games
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6. (C) OAS chief observer Marcelo Alvarez told poloff April
22 he believed the verification of national identity cards
("cedulas") would pose a problem during the appeals process.
The pro-GOV campaign committee Comando Ayacucho announced it
was aware of an opposition attempt to falsify identity cards
to boost appeals. Ayacucho's Ismael Garcia announced May 3
that his organization will mount an "anti-fraud operation" at
the appeals centers. Rumors abound among Chavez opponents
that the GOV will, in fact, falsify identity cards
corresponding to valid signatures, substitute the photo with
a Chavez supporter, and then send the person in the photo to
withdraw the signature. Mere allegations of identity theft
like these could also disrupt the appeals process, especially
if the CNE were to react by changing procedures during the
three-day period.
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Counting As We Go
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7. (C) Opposition members are pleased the CNE agreed to
execute daily tally sheets ("actas") as a record of the three
days of appeals. The rules permit international observers to
collect one of the four copies of each tally sheet, which the
opposition hopes will reduce the chances for fraud. (Note:
There are nearly 2,700 appeals centers, far more than the
expected number of observers.) The opposition also plans to
use the tally sheets to monitor daily progress in the
appeals. The CNE, however, rejected 120,329 signatures
collected last year because of missing or incorrectly filled
out tally sheets. Chavez opponents also fear the CNE could
similarly reject appeals.


8. (C) CNE computers stationed at appeals centers with more
than 100 appeals are also a risk, according to CD reps. The
rules state the computers will only be used to check whether
signers appear in the database and not for counting appeals.
CD appeals center coordinator Amado Dounia told poloff April
26 he believes the computers will be used to keep the Comando
Ayacucho informed in real-time of the appeals results.

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Repent, Signer!
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9. (C) The Comando Ayacucho claims its supporters will scour
lists of signers to convince them to "repent" and retract
their signatures (ref a). National Assembly Deputy Nicolas
Maduro predicted publicly April 26 that 30 percent of the 1.9
million valid signatures would be retracted. Rumors persist
of intimidation and harassment of public workers, passport
applicants, and university candidates who signed the petition
(ref b). Torrealba asserted that health sector NGOs had
reported to the CD that public hospitals are denying
medication to those who signed. Confederation of Workers of

Venezuela (CTV) Executive Secretary Pablo Castro told poloff
April 30 the GOV may resort to cash payments to obtain
retractions.

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When The Cat's Away
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10. (C) CD representative Leonardo Carvajal told poloff April
28 he believed the CNE, the military units that support
electoral events, and Chavez would "behave themselves" during
the appeals process, specifically because of the presence of
OAS Secretary General Gaviria and former President Carter.
Once they leave, Carvajal asserted, the CNE would find a
pretext to disqualify enough signatures to sink the
referendum.

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Comment
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11. (C) The victorious appeals scenarios we have seen from
the opposition rely on close-to-ideal conditions. While any
one of the risks outlined above is probably not enough to
impede the process, a combination of them could whittle away
enough of the opposition's slim margin of victory. Chavez is
disposed to use any legal or quasi-legal means to avoid the
referendum. The opposition's strategy is based on a massive
turnout to demonstrate popular support and international
observation to rein in GOV excesses. Our message continues
to be support for a fair and transparent process open to
international scrutiny.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01507 - CONFIDENTIAL