CHAVEZ LOSING SUPPORT AMIDST SHIFT IN VOTER MOOD.

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001270

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ LOSING SUPPORT AMIDST SHIFT IN VOTER MOOD.

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D
)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A poll and a focus group study on Venezuelan
politics published at the end of March highlighted President
Hugo Chavez' job approval rating falling from 44% to 36%. The
poll suggests that the National Electoral Council,s handling
of the signature verification process for the Presidential
recall referendum may be costing Chavez support. The focus
group study shows growing frustration with the opposition
leaders, and a desire on all sides for a more inclusive
politics, aimed at forging national unity, solving future
problems, and preventing instability. The poll was done by an
American consulting firm for a group of Chavez opponents. An
Argentine consultant, working under the auspices of the
National Democratic Institute, did the focus groups. END
SUMMARY

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Chavez losing support
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2. (C) U.S. consultants Greenberg, Quinlan and Rosner
Research, working for a group of Venezuelans opposed to
President Hugo Chavez, polled 1,000 likely voters in the
middle of March. Mark Feierstien briefed the Ambassador on
the results of the poll on March 27. PolOff obtained
additional poll information reported here separately on the
condition it not be disseminated broadly. (Please protect.)


3. (C) The poll shows that President Chavez, approval
numbers have declined from 51% opposed-44% in favor in
October to 60% opposed-36% in favor now. Additionally, the
percentage of the population willing to vote in favor of a
presidential recall has risen from 52% in October to 62% now,
while those who would vote against has dropped from 42% to
31%. 52% of those polled declared they had voted for Chavez
in 2000. March,s negative numbers closely resemble those of
summer 2003, when Chavez, support was at its lowest. 62% of
respondents disapprove of how Chavez is handling the economy,
while 37% approve. In the government,s handling of crime,
71% disapprove and 27% approve. This is significant, as 57%
of respondent's said unemployment was one of their top
concerns, and 34% put crime at the top, both far above any
other factor.

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CNE line backfiring?
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4. (C) Overall support for the CNE has also declined since
October from 63% to 40%, with disapproval rising from 24% to
56%. When asked why the CNE had ruled against the validity of
so many signatures, 64% of those polled said it was for
political reasons, while 31% said it was for technical
reasons. There is a strong correlation between respondent,s
evaluation of the nature of the CNE,s decision, and their
intention to vote in a recall referendum. This suggests
Chavez, perceived intervention in the process may be
alienating voters.

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Referendum still has support
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5. (C) The Greenberg poll shows 60% of respondents continue
to favor the recall process, while 30% think Venezuelans
should give up. A close correlation exists with the 58% who
fear the failure of the process will lead to violence and
instability, and the 30% who think things will settle down if
the process fails. The OAS and Carter Center enjoy the
support of 69% of those polled, while 25% disapprove.

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Little support for anti-US rhetoric
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6. (C) 70% of those polled blamed the Venezuelan government
for the poor state of U.S.-Venezuelan relations, while 76%
disagreed with President Chavez' threat not to sell oil to
the U.S. General attitudes about the U.S. were divided,

according to a part of the poll that measured feelings
towards various institutions and leaders. The lowest levels
of support were for members of the government such as Vice
President Jose Vicente Rangel, CNE President Francisco
Carrasquero, Supreme Court Ivan Justice Rincon, and former
Infrastructure Minister Diosdado Cabello.

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Shift in political culture?
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7. (U) Caracas daily El Universal reported April 4 the
results of Graciela Romer & Associates focus group study
conducted in February 2003. (Romer has been conducting the
focus groups under the auspices of the National Democratic
Institute) The study shows signs of an easing of political
tensions, and demands for a more inclusive politics, capable
of bringing the nation together, and solving problems. There
was a recognition that the present government,s anti-poverty
agenda was legitimate, and worth saving, and a recognition
that whatever the outcome of the referendum process, the
Chavistas are here to stay.


8. (U) Those questioned seemed increasingly worried, as the
prospect of an actual referendum grew, of the likely
long-term result. They stressed the need for the next
government to have real solutions to the problems of the
country, and for there to be some way of including the
political losers of the process in the future political
consensus. The zero sum game of pro or anti Chavez politics
is seen by many participants as a dangerous fantasy, which
fails to account for he fact that both positions have
entrenched supporters.


9. (SBU) The Romer study indicates there may be a political
center space in public opinion that is currently not
represented in the political leadership of the opposition,
the government, or the media. (In the poll, 44% of
respondents identified with no political party.) Opposition
supporters and independents recognized the value of some of
the government,s anti-poverty programs, and its political
mobilization of the country. Meanwhile supporters of the
President acknowledge corruption and intolerance in the
government. The study points to an increasing desire for
national unity, and a tolerant inclusive dialogue on both
parts.


10. (U) The focus groups saw the referendum as an
opportunity to resolve the political impasse peacefully . The
referendum was not, however, seen as a panacea. Many viewed
the opposition with suspicion, as having too many links to
the past, and being unable to present any vision of the
future beyond getting rid of Chavez. The danger of the
referendum simply reversing the roles of the opposition and
the Chavistas, but not stabilizing the political situation,
worried many of the focus group participants on both sides of
the political divide.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The two studies reinforce one another. The GQR study
indicates Chavez is being punished for undermining the
referendum and exacerbating polarization since the signature
verification process started. The Romer study suggests that
the opposition is failing to generate strong positive support
among the public, due to its inability to produce a unified
positive and inclusive message, and the dominant position of
political holdovers from the pre-Chavez era. The two studies
are the only measures of public opinion we've seen so far
this year. They present an important snapshot of the
political situation as Venezuelans continue to toil to find a
peaceful solution to the country's political impasse.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01270 - CONFIDENTIAL