COURT BATTLE CLOUDS CNE SIGNATURE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001267

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: COURT BATTLE CLOUDS CNE SIGNATURE TALKS

REF: A. CARACAS 1169


B. CARACAS 1133

C. CARACAS 923

D. CARACAS 908

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Two chambers of the Venezuelan Supreme Court (TSJ)
issued conflicting decisions on April 12 regarding the recall
referendum against President Hugo Chavez. The Electoral
Chamber issued its definitive decision nullifying the
National Electoral Council's (CNE) disqualification of
876,000 signatures in support of the recall for similar
handwriting ("planillas planas"). The Constitutional Chamber
issued on the same day its decision that it is the only
chamber competent to rule on the referendum. Opposition
negotiators had asked the Court to delay the decisions
because of possible interference with the talks at the CNE
and are close to an agreement on the process for appealing
individual signatures ("reparos"). CNE Director Jorge
Rodriguez said April 6 that if an agreement can be reached by
April 17, the appeals process could take place as early as
May 13. While deadlines never have much bearing in
Venezuelan politics, we believe that if talks collapse this
time, the chances of a referendum by August 19 are greatly
reduced. End summary.

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Supreme Court Zig Zags
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2. (C) On April 12, the Electoral Chamber issued renewed its
order to the National Electoral Council (CNE) to validate
876,000 signatures collected in support of the presidential
recall referendum that the CNE had originally sent to the
appeals process due to similar handwriting on the signature
forms ("planillas planas"). The Electoral Chamber gave the
CNE five days to comply with the decision. Just hours
before, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court (TSJ)
affirmed its earlier declaration that it is the only chamber
competent to hear cases related to the CNE because it relates
to the constitutional question of the roles of separation of
powers. Constitutional expert Tulio Alvarez told poloff
April 13 the stage is now set for the two chambers to square
off in the Plenary Chamber, which consists of all justices
from the TSJ's five chambers. Tulio Alvarez said it could
take two months for the Plenary Chamber to make a decision.


3. (C) The CNE released a statement on April 13 saying that
the Constitutional Chamber's decision effectively nullifies
that of the Electoral Chamber, which the CNE accused of
attempting to "co-administrate" electoral matters with the
CNE. Speaking to reporters, CNE Counsel Andres Brito
rejected the Electoral Chamber's authority, saying the CNE is
an independent branch of government. Movement to Socialism
(MAS) President and opposition negotiator Felipe Mujica told
poloff April 13 that the opposition had asked the TSJ
chambers last week not to issue their decisions because an
agreement was forthcoming. Mujica blamed TSJ President Ivan
Rincon for ignoring the opposition and moving ahead with the
Constitutional Chamber's decision. Mujica noted Primero
Justicia President Julio Borges' comment that it is now clear
the judicial path will remain blocked and that the opposition
now had to finish the negotiations with the CNE.

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CNE Talks Reach Make-or-Break Point
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4. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge
Rodriguez announced on April 6 that if the CNE and the
opposition can agree by April 17 on an appeals process
("reparos") for the signatures collected in support of a
recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez, it can be

held as early as May 13. Chief OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez
told poloff April 12 that it would be impossible to hold the
presidential referendum before August 19 if an agreement is
not reached in the next few days. Rodriguez stated publicly
that if an agreement is forthcoming, the presidential
referendum might be held by August 8. Alvarez warned,
however, that "nothing is fixed" and that Rodriguez's
comments were negotiating tactics.


5. (C) Mujica said the negotiations are like trying to
"disarm a time bomb" due to the risk for the opposition of
going to the appeals process. Negotiating the appeals
process amidst so many uncertainties, he said, is like not
knowing whether to cut the "blue wire or red wire on a bomb."
He predicted that the opposition would go through a wave of
convulsions as each opposition group expresses their opinion
once a decision is reached. This would be the greatest test
of opposition unity, he said. Mujica predicted that only
Proyecto Venezuela (Henrique Salas Romer) would not
participate in the reparos, if the final agreement is
workable.

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GOV Negotiating Position
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6. (C) Alvarez said that CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez is
under intense pressure from the pro-GOV campaign committee,
the "Comando Ayacucho," not to yield to the opposition.
Comando Ayacucho members routinely remark to the press their
dissatisfaction with the CNE's alleged conciliatory attitude.
Mujica dismissed this as pure theater, suggesting that
Rodriguez is taking orders directly from Vice President Jose
Vicente Rangel. Mujica said the GOV's tactic is to reach an
appeals process that is contentious enough to divide the
opposition over whether to participate. Mujica predicted the
GOV would underestimate the opposition's cohesion and
therefore give more concessions than they ought.

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Devil in the Details
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7. (C) Alvarez criticized opposition negotiators for
soft-pedaling on the numbers of signatures eligible for
appeals. Mujica said the opposition hoped the CNE would
declare 1.96 million signatures valid and that 1.3 million
would go to the appeals process (leaving some 500,000
signatures to be validated by appeal to reach the 2.4 million
threshold). Mujica also said the CNE had agreed to 2,700
centers for "five days," as stated in the rules, though the
first and last days would be devoted to set-up and
dismantling the centers. The sticking point is the number of
tables at each center: some centers would require only one
while others more than five. The opposition would like to
have a formula based on the number of signatures to be
appealed, but the CNE has in the past imposed a fixed number.



8. (C) Alfredo Lazarrabal, of the NGO Sumate, highlighted how
the numbers are being manipulated by electoral districts.
When the CNE gave the opposition a revised database of the
signatures, some 250,000 signatures had been shifted out of
opposition strongholds in Caracas to remote states where
Chavez has more support. Lazarrabal said there is no logical
reason for the shift other than a concerted effort by the GOV
to increase the challenge of the appeals process. Opposition
negotiator Enrique Naime told PolCouns April 2 that he had
brought the apparent shift in where rejected signatures
occurred to CNE Director Rodriguez. The review of the
numbers, he said, indicated that the CNE had upped the number
of invalid signatures by more than 200 percent in some states
while decreasing them by nearly 50 percent in the capital.
Naime later noted that the alleged manipulation of the
numbers, more problematically, was being done at the
municipal level.

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Comment

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9. (C) These are not win-win negotiations. Each side is
hoping the other will miscalculate what it will take to win
or lose the appeals process. The opposition is convinced
this will be their final attempt to salvage the presidential
referendum. While deadlines never have much bearing in
Venezuelan politics, we believe that if talks collapse this
time, the chances of a referendum by August 19 are greatly
reduced. If an agreement is struck, we will need to continue
pressing the various opposition groups to keep working toward
the referendum.

SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01267 - CONFIDENTIAL