CHAVEZ MAINTAINS POPULARITY, BUT STILL VULNERABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000012

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ MAINTAINS POPULARITY, BUT STILL VULNERABLE
ON RECALL

REF: A. 03 CARACAS 3977


B. 03 CARACAS 3768

C. 03 CARACAS 3800

Classified By: Richard Sanders, A/DCM, for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) President Hugo Chavez climbed one point to 45 percent
in approval ratings in December, according to two polls,
after hitting a popularity trough of 30 percent in May 2003.
Of the 59 percent of those likely to vote in a recall,
however, only 34 percent say they would keep Chavez, with 65
percent voting for recall. Opposition leader Enrique Mendoza
lags just behind Chavez for favorability at 44.9 percent, and
is the favorite among the field of opposition candidates that
might challenge Chavez in a new presidential election.
Convincing undecided and apathetic voters remain key
challenges for Chavez to win the referendum. In a
presidential election, however, the opposition will need to
field its single candidate in order to have a shot at
defeating the still popular president. End summary.

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Popularity Boost Continuing or Peaking?
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2. (C) Ref A reported that the favorability rating of
President Hugo Chavez had risen to 44 percent by November
2003, according to the polling firm Greenberg, Quinlan, and
Rosner. December figures from Greenberg show Chavez had
squeaked up to 45 percent. This corroborates data from
polling firm Consultores 21 (C21) showing Chavez at 45.3
percent favorability (among a stratified, urban sample of
1,500 and a margin of error of 2.58 percent). Chavez's
figures are a dramatic improvement over the 30 percent he
polled in May 2003, and up from his 37-percent showing in
September. The C21 poll was conducted Dec. 5-10, 2003, just
a few days after the opposition's signature collection drive
in support of a recall vote on Chavez. Among those polled by
C21, 52 percent thought Chavez should leave office; 43
percent thought he should stay. Similar figures for
September showed a wider margin of 60-34 in favor of Chavez's
departure (ref B). Those approving of Chavez's
administration reached 35 percent, a steady increase since
July's low of 23 percent.

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Recall Voters Still Likely to Boot Chavez
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3. (C) The polls suggest Chavez would lose a recall vote, but
by a shrinking margin. Only 59 percent of those polled said
they would participate in a presidential recall vote. Among
likely voters, 65 percent would vote to revoke Chavez's
mandate, a drop from September's figure of 76 percent. Of
those who said they would not likely participate, 57 percent
said they preferred to keep Chavez in office, while 32
percent were opposed. (Comment: This data suggests that
Chavez would need to tap into abstaining voters in order to
win the referendum. Based on the dismal performance of
Chavez's political machinery in the November signature drive,
this may prove difficult. End comment.)

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Opposition Fails to Excite
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4. (C) Miranda State Governor and opposition leader Enrique
Mendoza reached 44.9 percent favorability, just behind
Chavez. Mendoza also polls highest among the field of
opposition candidates (41 percent). Other presidential
front-runner Henrique Salas Romer polled 36 percent for
popularity. Asked whether they would participate in a
primary to elect a candidate to run against Chavez, 62.8
percent said they would not. Of those who would vote in a


primary, 35.6 percent prefer Mendoza. In a field of the five
leading presidential candidates -- including Chavez --
Mendoza polled 19 percent, well behind Chavez's 41 percent.
All potential opposition candidates either remained static or
dropped from their September poll numbers, while Chavez
climbed dramatically.

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Comment
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5. (C) It is difficult from December's data to explain
Chavez's popularity. While Chavez's whining over fraud in
the opposition signature drive may have hurt his image, the
flurry of holiday bonuses -- granted by Chavez to public
sector workers -- may have temporarily curbed people's angst
over the political situation in the country. For now, Chavez
holds clear public support that appears to be growing (or at
least not shrinking). Chavez's rise in popularity also
coincides with the launch of a series of high-profile social
programs aimed at the poor (ref C). Maintaining the
enthusiasm (and funding) for these programs until a
presidential referendum could prove challenging. The
opposition, however, still faces the problem of not offering
much -- let alone a single candidate -- in exchange for
Chavez's recall.


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