SIGNATURE TALKS ADVANCE AT CNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001169

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: SIGNATURE TALKS ADVANCE AT CNE

REF: A. CARACAS 1159


B. CARACAS 1054

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge
Rodriguez announced April 5 that talks between the opposition
and the GOV are "well advanced" on an agreement over the
appeals process for the signatures collected in support of a
recall vote on President Hugo Chavez. Rodriguez said the CNE
would consider, as a sign of good faith, delaying elections
for governors and mayors to September 19, to permit a
possible presidential referendum as early as August 8 (The
date would conflict with the August 1 date envisioned for the
regional elections). Opposition negotiators expressed their
willingness to go to the appeals process if it is transparent
and practical. The situation, however, is quite fluid. End
Summary.

-------------- --------------
CNE: Progress on Talks, Willing to Delay Regional Elections
-------------- --------------


2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge
Rodriguez announced on April 5 that talks between the
opposition and the pro-GOV parties (the "Comando Ayacucho")
are "well advanced" toward an agreement over the appeals
process ("reparos") for the signatures collected to petition
for a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.
Rodriguez also said the CNE is considering postponing
regional elections for governors and mayors to September 19
as "a sign of good faith" that the CNE is trying to address
opposition concerns. Rodriguez admitted the original
regional elections date of August 1 would complicate the
logistics of a possible referendum, which Rodriguez suggested
could be August 8. Rodriguez noted that the postponement
still needs the approval of the CNE board (Note: Four of the
five directors must agree on decisions affecting dates of
elections.). Rodriguez said he hoped to conclude talks with
both the opposition and the pro-GOV parties on April 5.

--------------
The Opposition's Three Conditions
--------------


3. (C) Opposition representatives told to Polcouns April 2
that talks indeed are advancing. Opposition negotiator
Enrique Naime said the number of signatures the CNE could
consider valid would increase above 1.8 million, though Naime
claimed the CNE was tinkering with the numbers on the
municipal level to give the GOV the advantage. Naime said
they had compared CNE data, and found that the number of
invalid signatures had increased by more than 100 percent in
states where Chavez enjoys greater sympathy. The opposition
would thus face greater difficulty in revalidating signatures
there. Ambassador confirmed progress on the talks with
Carter Center representative Francisco Diez on April 4, who
said the two sides were still see-sawing on final details of
the appeals process. Press reports, though varied, say that
the sticking points are closing certifications, tallying
process, number of tables in each center, and the presence of
witnesses and international observers.


4. (U) Opposition negotiators held a press conference on
April 5 giving three conditions to going to the appeals
process. First, the process must be transparent, with clear
rules and auditable results. International observers should
be able to take "quick counts" as well, opposition leaders
said. Second, the process must be efficient, with an
infrastructure sufficient to avoid bottlenecks. Results
should be released daily. The opposition negotiators added
that they had demanded that the referendum take place at the
beginning of August, before the appeals process for the
pro-GOV signature drive against National Assembly deputies.

(Note: August 19 marks the beginning of the final two years
of Chavez's term, after which a recalled Chavez would be
replaced by the vice president instead via new elections.)

--------------
Comando Ayacucho Opposes Delay
--------------


5. (U) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara,
speaking on behalf of the Comando Ayacucho, subsequently
denounced Rodriguez's proposal to delay the regional
elections. Lara said the CNE's decision to do so would
unconstitutionally lengthen the terms of mayors and
governors. Lara complained that the CNE was giving favorable
treatment to the presidential referendum at the expense of
the Comando Ayacucho's recall referendum against opposition
deputies.

--------------
Comment
--------------


6. (C) Rodriguez's announcement is part of the negotiating
process and is therefore subject to revision. We take it as
a sign that talks are progressing. As Venezuela is headed
into a four-day weekend for Holy Week, time is running out to
get agreement on the appeals process before then. The best
case scenario of holding the presidential referendum by
August 8, we note, still carries a risk of delays beyond
August 19 -- and Chavez could find a way to make that happen.

SHAPIRO


NNNN

2004CARACA01169 - CONFIDENTIAL