Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS1134
2004-04-01 21:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

ROPE A DOPE

Tags:  PREL PGOV VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001134 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TOM SHANNON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: ROPE A DOPE


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR
REASON 1.4 (D).

--------------------------------------
GREENBERG POLL: CHAVEZ DOWN 10 POINTS
--------------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001134

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TOM SHANNON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: ROPE A DOPE


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR
REASON 1.4 (D).

--------------
GREENBERG POLL: CHAVEZ DOWN 10 POINTS
--------------


1. (C) I HOSTED A MEETING THIS MORNING IN WHICH MARK
FEIERSTIEN, PROJECT MANAGER FOR POLLING FIRM GREENBERG
QUINLAN ROSNER RESEARCH, BRIEFED THE AMBASSADORS OF BRAZIL,
CANADA, CHILE, MEXICO, AND PORTUGAL AND MYSELF ON THE RESULTS
OF THE POLL HE COMPLETED ON MARCH 27. (HE PROMISED TO SEND US
THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION WHICH WE WILL FORWARD TO
WHA/AND.) IN GENERAL, THE RESULTS ARE THAT SINCE NOVEMBER,
CHAVEZ HAS DROPPED AROUND 10 POINTS ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT
INDICATORS TO THE LOW TO MID-30S, DEPENDING ON HOW THE
QUESTION IS PHRASED. ON THE REFERENDUM, LIKELY VOTERS FAVOR
RECALLING CHAVEZ BY A MARGIN OF 62-31. THOSE POLLED -- 1000
LIKELY VOTERS -- OVERWHELMINGLY WANT THE OPPOSITION TO
EXHAUST ALL LEGAL MEANS TO ACHIEVE A RECALL REFERENDUM.

--------------
CHAVEZ TO BLAME FOR BAD RELATIONS WITH U.S.
--------------


2. (C) ONE ADDITIONAL CONCLUSION STRUCK ME AS KEY:
VENEZUELANS OVERWHELMINGLY BLAME CHAVEZ FOR THE POOR STATE OF
U.S.- VENEZUELAN RELATIONS. ONLY 24 PERCENT APPROVE (7
PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY, 17 PERCENT APPROVE) OF CHAVEZ'S
HANDLING OF THE RELATIONSHIP, THE LOWEST APPROVAL SCORE OF
ANY OF THE ISSUES POLLED. IN CONTRAST, 44 PERCENT APPROVE OF
HOW HE IS DEALING WITH POVERTY. TO PUT THE ABOVE IN A
DIFFERENT CONTEXT, WHILE 25 PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY OF
CHAVEZ OVERALL, ONLY 7 PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY OF HIS
HANDLING OF U.S-VENEZUELAN RELATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, EVEN
HARD-CORE CHAVISTAS DISAPPROVE OF HOW CHAVEZ IS MANAGING
RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. FEIERSTEIN ADDED THAT IN SIX FOCUS
GROUPS CONDUCTED, CHAVISTAS OBJECTED TO CHAVEZ,S INCENDIARY
LANGUAGE AND THEY OBJECTED MOST OF ALL TO LANGUAGE USED WITH
REGARD TO THE U.S.

--------------
ROPE A DOPE
--------------


3. (C) CHAVEZ IS HURTING HIMSELF WITH HIS CONSTANT ATTACKS ON
THE U.S. AMBASSADOR MAISTO DID A SUPERB JOB OF MAINTAINING
THE HIGH GROUND IN REPLYING TO CHAVEZ,S BIZARRE ACCUSATIONS
IN THE OAS PERMANENT COUNCIL. CHAVEZ WOULD LOVE FOR US TO
ENGAGE IN A MUD-SLINGING CONTEST WITH HIM. THE WORST OUTCOME
FOR HIM IS FOR US TO REFUSE TO STOOP TO HIS LEVEL. BY
IGNORING HIM, OUR MESSAGE IS THAT HIS OUTRAGEOUS TRASH TALK
DOES NOT EVEN MERIT A RESPONSE.
SHAPIRO

NNNN
2004CARACA01134 - CONFIDENTIAL