THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS CANDIDATES FOR REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001083

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS CANDIDATES FOR REGIONAL
ELECTIONS

REF: A. CARACAS 00949

B. CARACAS 1054

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Opposition political parties have registered their
candidates for the August 1 gubernatorial and mayoral
elections (ref b) despite criticism from opposition NGOs that
see the elections as a distraction from the recall referendum
against President Hugo Chavez. Opposition parties largely
portray their participation in the elections as a plebiscite
against Chavez, asserting that defeat of the pro-Chavez
candidate will be their priority. The opposition reached
agreement on 10 of 23 gubernatorial candidates, and
opposition representatives expect front-runners, behind which
opposition forces will coalesce, will emerge in most races
once the campaigns begin. A win for the opposition in these
races would set the stage for the 2005 National Assembly
elections, and, of course, for the 2006 presidential
elections. For the opposition, the key questions are can
they winnow out competing opposition candidates to truly
contest Chavez's candidates, and will the CNE play fair. End
Summary.

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Referendum As Campaign Issue
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2. (C) The candidate registration process for the August 1
gubernatorial and mayoral elections strained opposition
unity. NGOs within the Coordinadora Democratica (CD),most
notably Gente de Petroleo, disagreed with the parties'
decision to present candidates, according to CD
representative Daniel Thiman. The NGOs argued that the
elections would distract the opposition from the recall
referendum against President Hugo Chavez. Parties countered
that the opposition could not risk surrendering the field to
Chavistas in state and local governments, which are valuable
assets to any political or electoral activities. The parties
registered their candidates despite serious reservations
about the ability or good faith of the National Electoral
Council (CNE) to administer the elections in light of the
CNE's handling of the recall referendum.


3. (C) Accion Democratica political secretary Luis Emilio
Rondon told poloff March 24 that opposition parties were
given no choice by the GOV but to move forward on the
regional elections. He said the opposition will continue to
push for the referendum, noting that a recalled Chavez would
damage the chances of pro-Chavez candidates. Thiman told
poloff March 25 the opposition would ramp up its referendum
efforts shortly, though he did not have details on how the
opposition would do this. CD Spokesperson Pompeyo Marquez
told reporters "the referendum is to revoke Chavez and the
regional elections are to defeat Chavismo."

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All Politics Is Loyalty
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4. (C) Rondon asserted that the deciding factor in the
regional elections would not be good governance or
competency, but rather by devotion or opposition to Chavez.
If opposition groups are able to make the elections about
Chavez's administration, Rondon reasoned, it could be a
powerful plebiscite against his rule. He predicted the
opposition could see a net gain in the number of governors
and mayors. Pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy
Ibrain Velazquez agreed the GOV could lose the regional
elections in light of growing opposition strength in the
states.

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Electoral Darwinism
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5. (C) Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Leopoldo
Puchi told poloff March 26 the opposition had agreed on
common candidates in ten states. Puchi said even in states
where the CD had negotiated common candidates, additional
candidates registered to run. Union President Francisco
Arias, for example, registered for the governorship of Zulia
state, where the opposition has backed sitting Governor
Manuel Rosales. Surprisingly, Union's board of directors
withheld support from their party president (and founder) in
the name of unity. Gossip columns are replete with
intimations that Arias is running at the behest of Chavez in
order to divide the opposition vote. Thiman said the CD
expects the competition between opposition candidates will be
short-lived as the campaigns gear up. Venezuelan political
culture does not favor underdogs, he said, and voters will
rally behind the opposition front-runners against the
pro-Chavez candidate.

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Key Races: Metropolitan Caracas A Must Win
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6. (C) One of the most important races for the opposition is
the metropolitan Caracas mayoralty, currently held by former
Chavez ally Alfredo Pena. Rondon noted the importance of
winning the Metropolitan Mayoralty as it controls the
Metropolitan Police and grants permits for opposition
marches. Pena has the CD's support for a second term, though
AD's Claudio Fermin is also running. With the MVR candidate,
National Assembly Deputy Juan Barreto, reportedly polling 30
percent (he says 43 percent),having two opposition
candidates weakens the opposition's chances.


7. (C) Rondon calculated that a victory for the opposition
would be measured in a net gain of governorships. He
highlighted Miranda State, where Governor Enrique Mendoza
will face former Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello
(who stepped down March 23 to run for office as dictated by
election laws). Carabobo is also key, where Henrique Salas
Feo is taking on former National Guard Gen. Luis Felipe
Acosta Carles. Rondon was pessimistic over the opposition's
chances in Aragua state east of Caracas, where moderate
Chavista Didalco Bolivar enjoys substantial popularity.

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Comment
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8. (C) The opposition political parties are behaving like
political parties in their enthusiasm over the regional
elections. For them, the referendum and the regional
elections are not mutually exclusive goals. In fact, the
referendum -- or lack of one -- will be a prime issue. The
major concern, of course, is whether the CNE, that for the
opposition has shown it cannot be trusted, will be able to
conduct a free and fair contest.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01083 - CONFIDENTIAL