VENEZUELA PREPARES FOR REGIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001054

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014

TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA PREPARES FOR REGIONAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. CARACAS 949

B. CARACAS 922

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(b).

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Summary
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1. (C) Opposition and pro-government candidates are
registered for the August 1 regional elections as the
registration period closed March 25. At stake are 23
governors, the high mayor of the metropolitan Caracas
district, 336 mayors, and hundreds of municipal council
positions -- in sum, the last part of state administration
not totally controlled by President Hugo Chavez. The
National Elections Council (CNE) has already appointed some
190,000 poll workers to support the 10,580 election tables.
The CNE next publishes the candidate lists and rules on
objections to candidate applications by May 5. Given the
CNE's track record on the presidential recall referendum,
whether a fair and transparent electoral process is possible
is a prime question for the opposition. End summary.

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609 Elected Positions Up For Grabs
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2. (U) Political parties are engrossed in the candidate
selection process for the August 1 elections for governors,
mayors, and other state and municipal officials. In all, 609
elected positions will be filled: 23 governors, the mayor of
the Caracas federal district, 336 mayors, and 269 state and
federal district council members. Governors and mayors are
elected by plurality to a four-year term and may be
re-elected once. The seven- to fifteen-member state
"legislative councils," which have limited legislative powers
and budgetary oversight, are elected to four-year terms
through both direct and proportional elections. The Caracas
federal district also elects a 13-member council. States
with indigenous populations are required to have one
indigenous person on their respective councils.


3. (C) The CNE plans to mount 8,344 voting centers throughout
Venezuela (see ref b). These centers will represent 10,580
tables, 7,689 of which will be automated using 19,000
election machines. Jorge Tirado, whose U.S.-based company
Smartmatic is helping the CNE organize the elections, told
poloff March 24 that the CNE will try to consolidate tables
so that some will use up to three machines. About 90,000
poll workers will be selected for election duties, Tirado
said, with six or more workers assigned to a table, depending
on size.


4. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) reported on March
26 it had received applications from 140 gubernatorial
candidates and thousands of mayoral candidates. After a
period for objections and appeals, the CNE will finalize the
candidate list on May 5. Currently, the CNE plans to print
the ballots on June 15, according to Tirado (Note:
Electoral laws do not specify a date by which a gubernatorial
or mayoral candidate may withdraw. Presumably, candidates
who plan to pull out and throw their support to another would
have to do so prior to June 15 to withdraw their names from
the ballot.). Election laws limit the campaign period from
60 days before the election (in this case, June 2) to 48
hours before the opening of the polls on August 1.

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On International Observers
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5. (C) The CNE has not announced publicly whether they will
invite international observers for the regional elections.
Accion Democratica (AD) official Luis Emilio Rondon told
poloff March 24 the opposition will request the presence of
observers. OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo told the
Ambassador on March 24 that Rodriguez wants OAS/TCC as well

as UN observers for the regional elections.

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CNE Working Hard
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6. (C) Rodriquez described the candidate registration process
to reporters as "absolutely normal" with no reports of
irregularities in the registration process. Smartmatic's
Tirado claimed to poloff that his consortium is "running" all
aspects of the election. Tirado asserted that he regularly
advises Rodriguez on the elections, though he admitted
Rodriguez does not always follow the advice. (Note: Tirado
mentioned he plans an election simulation for June 27.)

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Comment
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7. (C) The GOV is focusing on regional elections not so much
as an alternative to the referendum, but rather to
consolidate its power in the one area where it still lacks
full control. We expect the CNE, therefore, to dedicate its
full attention to organizing the regional elections. We also
expect the CNE to show the same kind of pro-GOV biases during
these elections as it has demonstrated with the referendum.
International observation will be critical to ensuring a
reasonably fair and transparent election.


8. (C) Regional elections are linked to national issues, but
local conditions intervene as well. For the opposition, the
key questions are can they winnow out competing opposition
candidates to truly contest Chavez's candidates, and will the
CNE play fair. The MVR's challenges are the strength of some
of the opposition candidates, and the extent to which Chavez
can transfer his strength to the candidates, many of whom are
old military colleagues.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01054 - CONFIDENTIAL