MANIPUR: INDIAN ARMY PRESSURE NEAR BURMA BORDER

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000449

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS, EAP/IMBS AND INR
NEW DELHI FOR POL AND DAO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MOPS PINS PGOV BM IN GOI
SUBJECT: MANIPUR: INDIAN ARMY PRESSURE NEAR BURMA BORDER

REF: A) CALCUTTA 0337, B) CALCUTTA 0294, C) CALCUTTA 0135 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) On October 26, the Indian Army launched a
counter-insurgency exercise in the Chandel and Churachandpur
districts of Manipur, a Northeast Indian state bordering Burma.
Remaining initially tightlipped, an Army spokesman finally
announced on November 6 that more than 100 rebel bases had been
attacked and that the Army had re-established control over Sajik
Tampak, where about 2,000 rebels had been camping. The Manipuri
separatist insurgent camps bordering Burma belong primarily to
the United National Liberation Front (UNLF),the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Peoples' Revolutionary Army of
Kangleipak (PREPAK). On the Burmese side of the border, these
and other Northeast Indian insurgent outfits are believed to
have bases. Press reports suggest that Burmese troops are
maintaining a heightened state of vigilance on their side of the
boundary, to check militants from entering the country.


2. (SBU) A leader of the Manipur Congress, the ruling party in
Imphal, Manipur's capital, told post that the Army operation
aims at "cleansing" the border area by driving away or detaining
militants, while keeping casualties to a minimum. Officials
estimate about a couple of dozen militants killed, although some
contacts said the tally may be even less. On November 9, the
UNLF issued a statement dismissing Army claims as propaganda.
The outfit said that insurgents had successfully fought off
attempts by the military to infiltrate their bases. The UNLF
also claims to have inflicted heavy casualties on security
forces in Churachandpur on November 13, killing 12 Army
personnel. In turn, the Army has denied this.


3. (SBU) On November 20, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is
scheduled to visit Manipur, a state torn by insurgency and
popular resentment against the GOI. Singh's program includes
formally vacating the historic Kangla Fort in Imphal, occupied
since 1949 by the Assam Rifles forces, and handing it over to
the state government. The occupation of the fort has been a
source of much popular anguish, and Singh's move is intended to
engender goodwill. (Septel will report in greater detail on the
ongoing internal problems in Manipur.)


4. (SBU) COMMENT: Although highly detailed information is
difficult to come by, so far the Army exercise appears low-grade
despite the "propaganda war" by both the security forces and the
militants. Army personnel first moved into the forested,
mountainous Sajik Tampak area as long ago as April, on the eve
of Parliamentary elections (Reftels). Significantly, the
launch of the current operation coincided with Burmese General
Than Shwe's October 25-29 India visit. The exercise also
precedes PM Singh's scheduled tour, as well as the Indo-ASEAN
car rally -- to be inaugurated on November 22 -- with as many as
60 teams competing on a route that starts in Guwahati, Assam,
exits India through Manipur's border checkpoint at Moreh, and
continues through Southeast Asia to the finish line in
Singapore. The GOI is hoping this rally will showcase a
significant new trade route into the northeast, and they
recognize that any security incidents could be a severe setback
to these ambitions. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY