ARGENTINA: POLLING THE POLLSTERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 002866

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC AND INR/RA
NSC FOR TOM SHANNON AND MIKE DEMPSEY
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: POLLING THE POLLSTERS

REF: BUENOS AIRES 02817

Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: Poloff recently met with several of the
leading Argentine pollsters to discuss their views on the
image of the United States, public support for Kirchner, and
the current political situation in Argentina. Included in
these meetings were Graciela Romer, Manuel Mora y Araujo,
Marita Carballo, Enrique Puceiro, Hugo Haime, and Analia del
Franco. The polling experts ascribed the comparatively
negative public opinion of the United States to past history
and current policy disagreements, but argue the views are
more a knee-jerk reaction than a deep-seated dislike of
America and Americans. Kirchner's approval ratings vary from
pollster to pollster, but all agree he has lost a significant
level of support over the past year. They view the political
situation as being in flux, with a divided opposition and a
ruling Peronist Party (PJ) that has become more of a culture
than a party. Some pollsters see the traditional party
system eventually being replaced by new center-left and
center-right coalitions. End Summary.

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Public Opinion of United States Multifaceted
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2. (C) All of the pollsters attributed the poor image of the
United States in Argentina to historical trends, a reaction
to the policies of former President Carlos Menem, and
disagreement with current US policy. However, they feel
these negative views do not translate into a rejection of US
values or anger towards Americans. They discussed at length
with Poloff the reason the recent Latinbarometer poll found
that only three in ten Argentines had a positive view of the
United States, well below the regional average. The
pollsters pointed to Argentina's past trend of competing with
the United States for regional leadership, the lack of
knowledge of the U.S. in a country traditionally focused on
relations with Europe, an association in the public's mind
between the U.S. and the IMF's role in the 2001-2002 economic
crisis, and a reaction to the "carnal relations" between the
two countries associated with the now widely disliked Menem
administration. They argued that disagreements with current
US policies in areas such as Iraq are also a source of
negative feelings toward the United States, but are not as
important as historical factors. It is interesting to note
that positive views of the U.S. only dropped eight points--38
percent to 30 percent--between the 2002 Latinbarometer,
completed before the Iraq war, and the 2003 Latinbarometer,
taken after the war began. However, the number of Argentines
saying they had a good opinion of America dropped from 53
percent just before the crisis in 2001 to 38 percent the
following year, showing the impact of the economic crisis on
the Argentine image of the U.S.. Marita Carballo of
TNS-Gallup mentioned that throughout the economic crisis, her
polls showed that Argentines blamed their own government
primarily for the crisis, although the IMF and the U.S. were
viewed as contributing agents.


3. (C) When asked how to improve opinion of the U.S., all
of the pollsters recommended an increase in exchanges,
particularly at the non-governmental level, involving both
countries' academic, scientific, business, and cultural
communities. The opinion experts felt that increasing the
frequency of these exchanges, and the publicity they
generate, would help break down the wall of ignorance that
exists about the United States and demonstrate the positive
aspects of the bilateral relationship. Graciela Romer
recommended a program to teach the best practices from the US
Congress to assist the Argentine Congress in its current
efforts to be more transparent. The pollsters generally
complimented the Embassy's efforts to build a stronger
relationship between the two countries and felt these efforts
would be reflected in improved polling numbers for the U.S.
over time.

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Kirchner's Approval Rating Depends on the Question
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4. (C) President Nestor Kirchner's support level varies
widely among the pollsters, depending on how they ask the
question, but most have Kirchner's approval ratings between
50 and 58 percent. Kirchner tends to poll at least ten
points higher on his personal image than on his performance
as president. Kirchner also does better when the question is
asked as a two-option, approve or disapprove question, than
he does if the question is asked with a more standard
four-point or five-point scale. For example, Puceiro's
latest polling shows that 58 percent of Argentines think
Kirchner is doing a good or very good job as president, with
33 percent saying he is doing an average job. However, when
asked whether respondents approve or disapprove of Kirchner's
job performance, without the option of a middle category, 78
percent said they approved. Graciela Romer had Kirchner's
positive personal image at 55 percent, with 28 percent giving
him an average personal rating. For job performance, Romer's
polling came in lower than the other pollsters, with 42
percent saying Kirchner was doing a good job and 35 percent
giving him an average rating. Kirchner has higher ratings on
his performance with the economy and foreign relations than
he does with controlling crime and dealing with the
piqueteros. The pollsters lamented how their polls are
frequently misquoted in the press, causing a great deal of
confusion on Kirchner's actual approval rating. Both Enrique
Zuleta Puceiro and Analia del Franco vehemently denied the
allegations made in the 21 August Noticias article that
accused them of biasing their polling in favor of Kirchner.
They argued the numbers used in the Noticias article were
either wrong, or taken out of context. (See Reftel)


5. (C) The pollsters explained Kirchner's comparatively
high approval rating as being a result of an improving
economy, a favorable comparison with past presidents, a lack
of viable alternatives, and the fact that he is seen as an
individual seeking to change the system. As Mora y Araujo
put it, Kirchner is viewed by many as the man on the white
horse in western movies that rides into town to take over for
the corrupt and incompetent men that have been mismanaging
things. Kirchner's biggest challenges are the economy and
crime and security issues. Most of the polling experts were
optimistic in the short term on the economy, although they
generally attributed the economic improvements to a more
favorable international situation than to Kirchner's decision
making. On crime and security, they felt the GOA lacked a
clear strategy and was more focused on short-term strategies,
rather than long-term needs, such as the complete overhaul of
the Buenos Aires provincial police force. Puceiro felt that
Kirchner's support level would likely drop in the coming year
because he would be forced to accept the PJ presidency in
order to get the support from the PJ provincial party
structure to make the gains he wants in the 2005 elections.
By finally tying himself to the traditional Peronist
structure, he will do permanent damage to his image as an
outsider trying to clean up the system. Most of the other
pollsters agreed that Kirchner's approval ratings would
continue to erode over the coming year, although they all
felt there currently was no opposition leader on the horizon
that could challenge Kirchner's top spot in the arena of
public opinion. Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna is
the individual with the next highest approval rate, with 49
percent of the population approving of the job he is doing in
Puceiro's latest poll.



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A Political System in Transition
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6. (C) The pollsters described the political opposition as
being in disarray, with some seeing an eventual end to the
traditional party structure in Argentina. All of the opinion
analysts felt there currently is no well-organized political
opposition outside of the PJ party. Opposition figures like
ARI leader Elisa Carrio, Recrear leader Ricardo Lopez Murphy,
and Compromise for Change leader Mauricio Macri are merely
figures without a national party structure, nor enough
national appeal to directly challenge Kirchner. The Radical
Civil Union (UCR) party has a national party structure, but
is too weak and divided to act as a real check on the GOA.
Some pollsters, such as Graciela Romer, felt the PJ and UCR
no longer represent the Argentine electorate. For Romer,
these traditional parties have become fractured, loose
groupings that encompass individuals from mutually exclusive
political points of view. As Rosendo Fraga recently put it
in a meeting with DCM and POLCOUNS, the PJ has become more of
a culture than a political party. The UCR has faced the
brunt of these political changes over the past few years, as
leading members of the party have left to form their own
political organizations. Romer felt the eventual fracturing
of the PJ was also inevitable. What she thought would
replace the current political structure is a center-right and
a center-left coalition. (Comment: Dr. Ruben Octavio
Villan, who works with Mauricio Macri, recently gave Poloffs
a similar prediction. He felt what has happened in the
Buenos Aires city politics, with leaders breaking off of the
UCR and PJ to form their own political organizations, is a
foreshadowing of what will eventually happen on a national
stage. It must be noted that none of our contacts, nor the
Embassy, feel this scenario is likely to happen anytime in
the near future. End Comment) The pollsters felt the main
obstacles that impeded the formation of new opposition
grouping are the egos of the opposition leaders, the negative
association Argentines have with political alliances
following the disastrous experience with former President de
la Rua's coalition government, and Kirchner's high approval
ratings. Puceiro felt it was also impossible for leftist
parties to develop because there was little political space
between Kirchner and the piqueteros, who have high negatives
among the public.

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Comment
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7. (C) Argentina has a well developed polling community,
with several firms associated with major international
research groups, such as TNS and Research International. The
pollsters are also excellent analysts of the Argentine
political system and have proved to be an invaluable source
of political reporting for the Embassy. All of them are
doing work for one or more political parties or figures,
giving them access to interesting information on political
strategy and negotiations. We will continue to maintain
close contact with them as we look toward the 2005 election.
GUTIERREZ