CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE TRAIAN BASESCU WINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 003421

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SOCI ECON RO
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE TRAIAN BASESCU WINS
PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF IN SURPRISE UPSET; NASTASE CONCEDES

REF: BUCHAREST 3416 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Political Section Chief Robert S. Gilchrist for Reasons
1.4 B and D


1. (C) Summary: Center-right National Liberal-Democratic
(PNL-PD) alliance candidate Traian Basescu has won Romania's
presidency, according to official results released early
afternoon December 13. PNL-PD leaders tell post that the
alliance is still absorbing the surprise win, but will soon
begin efforts to form a parliamentary coalition. Cheering
supporters crowded Bucharest's University Square late
December 12 and early hours the next day to hear Basescu
predict a clear victory; similar spontaneous rallies took
place in other cities. Throughout the campaign, Basescu
advocated strong trans-Atlantic relations. His alliance has
promised to combat corruption and to undertake more rapid
economic and political reform. Post has begun hearing names
of potential cabinet members, but much remains in the sphere
of speculation. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Defying predictions in the media and by political
insiders from all political persuasions, center-right
National Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) alliance candidate and
Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu has emerged as the winner of
Romania's December 12 second-round presidential run-off
elections. With 99 percent of the vote counted, the Central
Electoral Bureau (BEC) announced early afternoon December 13
that Basescu held 51.23 percent of the vote compared to 48.77
percent for ruling Social Democratic-Humanist party (PSD-PUR)
union candidate Prime Minister Adrian Nastase. PSD insiders
tell post that the party leadership is coming to terms with
what they see as a clear defeat. Nastase conceded at 2:10 PM
local time December 13, noting that the vote indicated a
broad urban-rural split in Romania and leaving open the
possibility of political cohabitation.


3. (C) Meanwhile, the PNL-PD leadership is meeting in a
closed session to discuss options for forming a possible
parliamentary coalition. Given that most in PNL-PD were
surprised at Sunday's result, the alliance has not engaged in
serious discussions with other parties -- unlike the PSD-PUR
-- since November 28 parliamentary elections and first-round
presidential elections. Senior PD leader Cosmin Gusa
confided to PolChief -- "We are just waking up to all of
this."

Possibilities for a Coalition
--------------

4. (C) Gusa also cautioned the morning of December 13 that it
remained too early to determine how the PNL-PD will attempt
to form a coalition. Nonetheless, he conceded that there is
much speculation both inside and outside the alliance. The
possibilities are numerous. Analysts note the first option
may be a minority coalition with the ethnic Hungarian party
(UDMR),the 18 Chamber of Deputies members reserved for
ethnic minorities, and support from individual MPs from other
parties, including defectors from the extreme nationalist
Greater Romania Party (PRM) (Note: Basescu has repeatedly
publicly and privately ruled out a coalition with the PRM.
However, analysts note that this would not negate the
possibility of many PRM MPs declining to vote against a new
PNL-PD led government. End Note.)


5. (C) A second option would be co-opting the Humanist Party
(PUR),which holds 18 positions in the Chamber of Deputies
and ten in the Senate. With the UDMR and ethnic minority
seats, this would provide a clear majority. The PUR released
a communique early afternoon December 13 expressing the
party's political independence, indicating that this might be
a path PNL-PD could pursue. A third option would be to call
elections as allowed by the constitution if the parliament
meeting in joint session fails to form a government after
three votes. Basescu could decide that PNL-PD could build
upon momentum generated by the December 12 results to achieve
a commanding parliamentary majority by holding new elections.
A final option would be cohabitation, allowing the PSD the
possibility to form a government. This last option is viewed
as the least likely, as it would deny Basescu the capacity to
implement PNL-PD's platform.

Possibilities for a Cabinet
--------------

6. (SBU) Throughout the campaign, Basescu repeatedly stated
that PNL-PD's prime minister would be PNL acting president
Calin Popescu Tariceanu. This reflects the longstanding deal
between PNL and PD that one party would hold the presidency
while the other would be accorded the prime minister
position. Tariceanu remained at Basescu's side during
celebratory comments made late December 12 and was the only
other PNL-PD leader to share the microphone with the press.
Beyond Tariceanu, Embassy contacts say the composition of a
possible PNL-PD cabinet remains unclear. Party insiders and
reliable media sources bruit several well-known political
figures for the top positions.


7. (SBU) Leading PD member Adriean Videanu is touted as a
potential Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy.
Videanu is one of PD's richest politicians and currently
heads the Romanian-American Investment Fund. He was one of
the few parliamentarians to voluntarily leave office in
accordance with new conflict of interest legislation. His
managerial skills and discretion are widely respected across
PNL and PD ranks. PD's Sorin Frunzaverde appears to be a
frontrunner for Minister of Defense. He briefly held the
position in 2000 and is well known by the Embassy. PNL's
Valeriu Stoica is a possibility for Minister of Justice, and
PNL's leading female deputy Mona Musca will likely be
appointed either as Minister of Culture or Minister of Labor.
PNL economic advisor Ionut Popescu, a well-known journalist
and economist is a wildcard. However, given his position as
the chief proponent of PNL's liberal economic strategy, he is
likely to receive a key position in a future alliance
government.

Comment
--------------

8. (C) Basescu's win is seen here as a new beginning in
Romanian politics, with many hopes and expectations.
Upcoming days will focus on coalition building to include
frenzied horse-trading for leadership positions in the
parliament and senior government slots. We expect PSD will
emerge as a tough opponent, with popular outgoing President
Ion Iliescu taking over party leadership and with the PSD
still highly influential -- through formal and informal bonds
-- over state institutions, including the judiciary and
intelligence services. Events are evolving quickly in
Bucharest. The only certainty is that Basescu and his allies
have pulled off an unexpected victory with likely sweeping
repercussions on Romania's economic and political life


9. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams, as well as
daily press summaries, are available on the Bucharest SIPRNet
website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest
CROUCH