Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRUSSELS87
2004-01-09 10:53:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

OUTLOOK FOR THE IRISH EU PRESIDENCY: KEEPING

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR EFIN ETRD EAID EI EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000087 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR UNDERSECRETARY LARSON, EUR A/S JONES AND
PDAS RIES, AND EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR EFIN ETRD EAID EI EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK FOR THE IRISH EU PRESIDENCY: KEEPING
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS ON COURSE

REF: 03 DUBLIN 1744

SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000087

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR UNDERSECRETARY LARSON, EUR A/S JONES AND
PDAS RIES, AND EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR EFIN ETRD EAID EI EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK FOR THE IRISH EU PRESIDENCY: KEEPING
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS ON COURSE

REF: 03 DUBLIN 1744

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) As our engagement with the Irish Presidency picks up
momentum with next week's Task Force and Political Directors'
meetings in Dublin, it is important to keep in mind the
political and institutional changes that will buffet the EU
during the next several months. The Irish have a fuller
plate of largely unwanted internal issues (IGC, Stability
Pact) to lead on than they had planned (REFTEL),and both the
European Parliament and the Commission are increasingly lame
ducks. A looming round of elections (including Greece, Spain
and EU-wide for the EP) could also limit the EU's appetite
and ability to focus on many new initiatives. While the
lengthy Task Force and PolDir agendas underscore the breadth
of our transatlantic ties, it will be important to quickly
sort out our most important priorities for concerted work
between now and the June US-EU Summit. Our short list would
include: developing a joint approach to the Greater Middle
East and sustaining EU support for reconstruction in
Afghanistan and Iraq; keeping the ESDP-NATO relationship on
an even keel as the EU prepares for a follow-on to SFOR in
Bosnia; harnessing Ireland's self-proclaimed emphasis on
sustainable development to develop broader cooperation with
the EU on Africa; containing potential trade and economic
strains caused by a strong euro, slow growth, and pending WTO
actions; improving coordination on counterterrorism and
homeland security measures; and pressing for a solution on
Galileo. One new initiative that could get some traction is
exploring the possibilities for launching a Transatlantic
Research Area. END SUMMARY.

2004 - A YEAR OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE EU
-------------- --


2. (U) Despite its professed emphasis on transatlantic ties,
the Irish Presidency will be judged within the EU on two or

three principal tasks -- whether or not it decides to attempt
resolution of the EU's Constitutional Treaty debate; the
selection of the next generation of EU leaders (President of
the European Commission, High Representative for Foreign
Policy, and Deputy Secretary General of the Council); and
what might be done to pick up the pieces of the Stability and
Growth Pact. While the U.S. has interests in how all of
these debates turn out, none will directly impact on the
US-EU agenda for the semester.


3. (U) At the same time, 2004 is a year of institutional
turnover for the EU. The Union will grow to 25, and the
Council itself will officially incorporate the ten new Member
States with full voting rights on May 1. The European
Parliament will end its term the first week of May. Until
then, the focus on trying to finish outstanding legislative
work will be buffeted by pre-election posturing by all the
major parties. Parliament will then spend considerable time
after the June elections organizing itself, choosing its
leadership, and focusing on confirmation of a new Commission.
The Prodi Commission's term ends on October 31, and much of
that body's legislative activity is already beginning to wind
down. The deal-making and horse-trading involved in
composing a new Commission (with one Commissioner from each
Member State) and divvying up portfolios, will go on all
summer. Looming over all of this (and potentially
complicating the Constitutional debate in particular) will be
the beginnings of the EU's battles over it's 2007-2013 budget
framework, which will determine the broad outlines of the
EU's spending priorities for that period.


4. (SBU) Further, after something of a hiatus in 2003,
electoral politics, beginning with Greece and Spain in the
spring, and followed by June EP elections in all 25 Member
States, will distract leaders from any initiatives needing
high-level political attention and could impinge on effective
EU decision-making.


5. (SBU) All of the above means that the Irish, and the EU as
a whole, are not seeking out opportunities to begin any other
major initiatives during the coming six months. But while
the EU's internal calendar is full of distractions, there are
a number of key events in the transatlantic calendar over the
next six months where we will need to demonstrate progress on
key issues. These begin with the US-EU Ministerial on March
1, and continue through to the G-8, NATO, and US-EU Summits,
all in June. Given the many distractions, it will be
important to quickly whittle down the impressively long
agendas for the Political Directors and NTA Task Force
meetings to focus on a few key deliverables. Our short list
includes:
COORDINATING ON THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST
--------------

6. (SBU) At the working level the EU is in the throes of
developing its thinking on a more comprehensive approach to
the issues in the Middle East and the broader Muslim world.
Certain Member States still cling to the Barcelona Process,
but there is an emerging consensus that more must be done.
We will begin a process of engagement on this next week with
the visit of Alina Romanowski of NEA and, we hope, NEA DAS
Satterfield soon thereafter. Ideally, we should follow these
up with Policy Planning talks in February as promised by the
Secretary last fall, with the goal of both influencing the EU

SIPDIS
process as well as seeing what might be done together in the
Summit context. These efforts will also provide a context
for our continuing work to sustain and deepen EU support for
reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq.

KEEPING ESDP ON AN EVEN KEEL
--------------


7. (SBU) After a rough patch, ESDP developments have taken a
more positive turn in the past months. We believe the Irish
are determined to, and capable of, keeping things headed in a
good direction. But important decisions will need to be
worked on during the Irish (and Dutch) Presidencies. Most
important will be ensuring that planning for an EU follow-on
mission to SFOR goes smoothly, an issue where the UK, as the
EU's lead nation, should play the central role. Other key
developments will include work on setting up the EU Armaments
Agency to meet the target date of end 2004, and
implementation of the EU's paper on strengthening of planning
capabilities including an EU cell at SHAPE and NATO liaison
office at the EU Military Staff.

BROADENING COOPERATION ON AFRICA
--------------


8. (SBU) The Irish have indicated they will make
sustainable development a priority of their presidency, with
a focus on Africa. This provides opportunities for synergies
with initiatives we are pursuing on the continent, including
African peacekeeping, and HIV/AIDS.

CONTAINING ECONOMIC AND TRADE TENSIONS
--------------


9. (SBU) While the vast economic relationship has been an
important stabilizer, managing U.S.-EU economic issues this
year will continue to require high-level political attention.
With the depreciation of the dollar against the euro,
macroecomic issues could become more contentious than they
have been for over a decade. Further appreciation of the
euro could threaten the eurozone,s fragile economic
recovery, prompting more strident European criticism of U.S.
budget and current account deficits as the root cause of
global imbalances.


10. (SBU) Without the possibility of real progress on the
Doha round, the trade agenda risks being dominated by an
array of contentious disputes. Our immediate focus should be
on preventing the EU from retaliating on March 1 if Congress
fails to act on a replacement for the FSC. We need to work
with the Irish Presidency to ensure the EU flexibly
interprets its internal directive to retaliate.


11. (SBU) Containing the potential damage from trade disputes
would enable the EU and the United States to focus on the
important areas where we can make progress on our
&positive8 economic agenda. These include liberalizing
transatlantic aviation, deepening financial market
integration, and strengthening the dialogue among ourregulatory agencies. We
also need to pay attention to
discussion within the Transatlantic Business Dialogue (TABD)
on building a business consensus on areas that we think can
move ahead.

INCREASING THE DIALOGUE ON CT AND HOMELAND SECURITY
-------------- --------------


12. (SBU) Direct negotiations between Secretary Ridge and
Internal Market Commissioner Bolkestein have largely resolved
differences over airline passenger data and container
security. They have also built some trust between the U.S.
and EU. Nonetheless, we will continue to see U.S. action
like recent decisions on placing air marshals on
transatlantic flights that could generate intense opposition
here absent careful groundwork and prior consultation. In
this context, exploration of launching a broader, more
comprehensive dialogue on counterterrorism and homeland
security concerns, which would bring in relevant Commission
directorates, the Council and the Presidency to discuss
issues like biometrics, exchange of watch lists, exchange of
information on stolen passports, and border management, could
smooth EU cooperation. At the same time, we should be
prepared for possible complications related to accession by
ten new member states, who could use Commission mechanisms to
challenge our differentiated treatment of EU nationals under
the visa waiver program.

RESOLVING GALILEO
--------------


13. (SBU) The Europeans continue to negotiate assuming they
must launch the first satellite by early 2005, and the EU
position on Galileo is unlikely to change with the new
Commission. We have tabled a win/win scenario on frequency
placement for the Open System, and it is important that we
use the Summit deadline to drive this deal to closure.

EXPLORING A TRANSATLANTIC RESEARCH AREA
--------------


14. (U) Cooperation on science and technology tends to be an
orphan in the US-EU relationship. Yet better science is the
key to resolving some of our most contentious disputes in the
energy and environmental area. The Department's Science
Advisor has been laying the groundwork for a program of
enhanced exchange between our universities and research
centers. Financial and intellectual property issues need to
be worked out, but this is exactly the kind of new initiative
that can capture the public imagination and provide some
practical benefits.

FOSTER