THE NEXT EU COMMISSION: A BRUSSELS PREVIEW

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TAGS: ELAB EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: THE NEXT EU COMMISSION: A BRUSSELS PREVIEW

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The EU rumor mill is already full of
possible candidates for the succession of Romano
Prodi as Commission President in November 2004. EU
leaders are expected to pick a President-designate
at their June 17-18 Summit (European Council)
meeting in Brussels, shortly after the June 10-13
elections to the European Parliament (EP). Powerful
voices in the EP insist Prodi's successor must come
from whichever political family emerges from the
June EP elections with the most seats. As things
stand, this could induce leaders to pick up a
candidate closely associated with the European
People's Party (EPP),thus giving Luxembourg PM
Juncker, former Belgian PM Dehaene or Austrian
Chancellor Schuessel the best chances to win the
nomination, though some (Juncker, in particular)
might hesitate to leave national politics. The
designation will be followed by the intricate
process of choosing the other 24 Commissioners from
each of the remaining Member States, and allocating
portfolios among them. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) This next generation of EU officials will be
key interlocutors for the U.S. on the whole range of
issues filling the US-EU agenda. Not just the new
Commission President, but also those Commissioners
who hold key portfolios such as Trade, External
Relations, Competition, Internal Market or others
will play central roles in our efforts ranging from
WTO negotiations to border security measures and
assistance coordination.

WHO WILL SUCCEED PRODI?
--------------


3. (U) The mandate of EU Commission President Prodi
and his colleagues in the college of Commissioners
will expire at the end of October this year.
President Prodi is expected to return to Italian
politics. The Brussels rumor mill is already full
of possible candidates for Prodi's succession, a job
that involves running the EU executive, initiator of
legislation in key economic areas and manager of EU
trade and competition policies, all areas of crucial
interest to the USG.


4. (U) The nomination of Prodi's successor is a
matter for the EU leaders, who will make their
choice at their June 17-18 Summit in Brussels, less
than a week after the elections to the EP. The
decision, in which the current Irish Presidency (PM
Ahern) is expected to play the role of honest
broker, will likely be made by consensus, although
Nice Treaty rules now allow it to be made by
qualified-majority voting. The EP must then confirm
the Commission President-designate. Thereafter, as
we move into the Dutch Presidency (starting on July
1),the President-designate will have contacts with
all EU governments to draw up the list of the other
members of the new Commission, based on proposals by
each government (one Commissioner per Member State,
including the President-designate). It will fall to
the new Commission President to allocate portfolios
in the new team.


5. (SBU) Powerful voices in the EP insist Prodi's
successor must come from whichever political family
emerges from the June elections with the most seats.
The largest EP group currently is the European
People's Party (EPP),made up of Christian-Democrats
and Conservatives. Based on the current grouping of
party affiliates, the only other group that might
win a larger number in the next Parliament is the
center-left Party of European Socialists (PES),
although there are possible candidates for top jobs
from smaller party groups, especially the Liberals.


6. (SBU) Nationality is another key factor: with de
Hoop Scheffer at NATO, no Dutchman can reasonably
set his hopes on the Commission; if Solana is
reappointed High Rep in the fall, Spain is unlikely
to win another EU top job, etc. It is not
conceivable that the new President would be chosen
from any of the ten new Member States, but there
might be interest in appointing someone from outside
the EU's "founding six" as only one previous
Commission President (UK's Roy Jenkins) has come
from outside this group of France, Germany, Italy
and the Benelux. Here is what we have gleaned in
the EU corridors, although the fluid nature of the
issue at this stage means the list cannot be
considered exhaustive:

TOP CONTENDERS:

--Jean-Claude Juncker (Luxembourg PM, EPP): veteran
of the EU leaders club, said to be favored by
France and Germany; chances weakened by Jacques
Santer's 1999 debacle as last Luxembourg PM to
serve as Commission President; has repeatedly
expressed preference for another term as PM
(national elections to coincide with the Euro-
elections);

--Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgian former PM, EPP): failed
to win the job in 1995 (due to UK veto); able to
master detail and to forge compromises; served as
Vice-President of the Convention that drafted the
EU Constitution;

--Wolfgang Schuessel (Austrian Chancellor, EPP):
his nationality and political affiliation may
prove assets; his coalition with Haider's party is
definitely a minus;

--Paavo Lipponen (Finnish former PM, PES): openly
interested in the job; strong defender of the
Commission and the small states;

--Costas Simitis (Greek departing PM, PES): managed
not to make enemies during Greece's EU Presidency
in 2003; soon to be available.

OTHER POTENTIAL CANDIDATES:

--Guy Verhofstadt (Belgian PM, Liberal): not willing
to admit his ambitions; may be tempted to take the
EU path if his coalition government gets into
trouble;

--Pat Cox (Irish, EP President, Liberal): very
effective speaker; would probably do well to bring
the EU closer to its citizens, but seen as lacking
government experience.

DARK HORSES:

--Antonio Vitorino (Portuguese, JHA Commissioner,
PES): efficient Commissioner with good knowledge
of the EU machinery, has received public support
from the current EPP-led Portugese government;

--Guenther Verheugen (German, Enlargement
Commissioner, PES): Chancellor Schroeder wants him
to stay in Brussels with another portfolio; his
handling of enlargement could make him a popular
candidate among new Member States;

POSSIBLY, BUT MAY NOT BE INTERESTED?

--Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Danish PM, Liberal): very
effective during 2002 Danish EU Presidency;

--Peter Sutherland (Irish, former Commissioner and
WTO Director-General, Chairman of BP and Goldman
Sachs);

--Joschka Fischer (German FM, Green): has European
vision; probably cannot leave Berlin;

--Jose Maria Aznar (Spanish departing PM, EPP): said
he was not interested.

THE NEXT COMMISSION: WHO IS IN, WHO IS OUT?
--------------


7. (SBU) As regards the subsequent task of
assembling a new Commission, among the safest
conclusions we can make at this point is that the
ten Commissioners who will join the Prodi team on
May 1 from the new Member States will all, or nearly
all, stay on in Brussels as part of the next
Commission for its 2004-2009 term. The ten, who
will serve with full voting rights but with no
portfolio of their own for the interim May-October
period, should be:

--Czech Republic: Milos Kuzvart, former Environment
Minister;

--Cyprus: Marcos Kyprianou, Finance Minister;

--Estonia: Siim Kallas, former PM, Foreign and
Finance Minister;

--Hungary: Peter Balasz, Ambassador to the EU,
formerly State Secretary and representative in the
Convention on the Future of Europe;

--Latvia: Sandra Kalniete, Foreign Minister;

--Lithuania: Dalia Grybauskaite, Finance Minister;

--Malta: Joe Borg, Foreign Minister;

--Poland: Danuta Huebner, Minister for European
Integration;

--Slovenia: Janez Potocnik, Minister for European
Affairs;

--Slovakia: Jan Figel, Parliament Foreign Affairs
Committee chair, former chief EU negotiator.


8. (SBU) For the other 15 Member States, things are
less clear:

--Austria: Franz Fischler (Agriculture and
Fisheries) has said he will leave Brussels. If
Schuessel is not named Commission President, one
possibility is FM Ferrero-Waldner;

--Belgium: Philippe Busquin (Research) would be
interested in another term, but his fate depends
on a decision by Francophone Socialist party
leader Di Rupo. An EP seat would be a second
choice;

--Denmark: Poul Nielson (Development and
Humanitarian Assistance),a Socialist, is not
expected to be re-nominated by the Liberal-led
government in Copenhagen;

--Germany: Chancellor Schroeder would like
Enlargement Commissioner Guenther Verheugen (also
a dark horse candidate for President) to stay on,
possibly with an internal economic portfolio such
as Competition or the Single Market. Verheugen's
own interests more likely to be in Trade or
External Relations. Budget Commissioner Michele
Schreyer (Green) will not stay on, as Germany and
other big states will only have one, rather than
two Commission seats;

--Greece: Anna Diamontopoulou (Employment and Social
Affairs) is leaving Brussels to join the PASOK
campaign for March 7 Greek elections (septel). If
PASOK wins upcoming elections, she might join new
government in Athens, if PASOK loses she will not
be nominated by the new Greek government. Who
might replace her must await the outcome of the
Greek elections;

--Finland: Erkki Liikanen (Enterprise and Info
Society) will likely leave Brussels, as he is not
seen as close to the current Finnish government;

--France: Michel Barnier (Regional Policy) is said
to be interested in another term, but in a higher
profile job than his current one. As France is
one of the countries losing its second Commission
seat, there is no chance Pascal Lamy (Trade,
Socialist) will be staying in the Commission;

--Ireland: David Byrne (Health and Consumer
Protection) might be interested in another term;

--Italy: Mario Monti (Competition) may be willing to
stay if assured of the Economic and Monetary
Affairs portfolio. A possible replacement is
Rocco Buttiglione, Italian Minister for European
affairs;

--Luxembourg: Viviane Reding (Education and
Culture),whose name is not on any of the
candidate lists for upcoming national or EP
elections in Luxembourg, would be interested in
another term. Her future is uncertain, however,
due to possible candidacy of PM Juncker for
Commission President;

--The Netherlands: Frits Bolkestein (Internal
Market) is openly interested in another term;

--Portugal: Antonio Vitorino (Justice and Home
Affairs) is a dark horse candidate for Commission
President. Even if not in that job, he could
still be Portugal's Commissioner, although he is a
Socialist coming from a country with a center-
right government;

--Spain: Both Loyola de Palacio (Transport and
Energy) and Pedro Solbes Mira (Economic and
Monetary Affairs) are expected to leave the
Commission;

--Sweden: Margot Wallstroem (Environment) is
reportedly on the outs with Socialist PM Persson
and thus considered unlikely to be renominated.
One rumored replacement might be Carl Bildt,
former center-right PM. However, given
Wallstroem's popularity back home with Swedish
Socialists, some in Brussels think Persson might
see it as convenient to keep her Brussels;

--UK: Both Neil Kinnock (Administration) and Chris
Patten (External Relations) will be leaving the
Commission. Britain's lone Commissioner in the
next term could be Blair-confidant Peter
Mandelson.

SCHNABEL