NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE ON TERMS FOR CROATIAN EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 005215

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014
TAGS: PREL EAID HR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE ON TERMS FOR CROATIAN EU
ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. BRUSSELS 5125

B. THE HAGUE 3133

C. BUDAPEST 3181

D. VALLETTA 1099

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Dutch text on Croatia that will be presented to EU
FMs at the GAERC on December 13 should be unchanged from
their original proposal (ref B). But Austria, now with
support from Luxembourg, can be expected to push alternative
language that gets ICTY conditionality the wrong way around.
A key factor would be getting those Member States who have
been non-commital, or waffling, to reaffirm the EU's
commitment to conditionality. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Luxembourg, wearing its hat as the incoming EU
Presidency, on December 8 suggested to the EU Permanent
Representatives Committee (COREPER) unhelpful amendments to
the Dutch-proposed text for the December 17 European Council
(EU Summit) Conclusions on Croatia. Rather than the Dutch
proposal, where the EU would set a date to begin EU accession
negotiations with Croatia "provided that full cooperation
with ICTY has been confirmed by the Council", the Luxembourg
PermRep proposed to "switch the key" so that the EU would
begin negotiations on the date fixed UNLESS the Council finds
that Croatia is not fully cooperating with ICTY. Luxembourg
coupled these proposal with the announcement that they have
already invited ICTY Prosecutor Carla del Ponte to attend the
February 2005 GAERC, and therefore argued this would provide
a reliable trigger for a Council decision, if required.


3. (C) Member States favoring strict ICTY conditionality
expressed some surprise, and annoyance, at the Luxemborg
initiative. They told us they had expected such a tactic
from Austria and/or Germany, but were not pleased to see the
incoming Presidency land so solidly in that camp.


4. (C) COREPER briefly debated the Luxembourg proposal on
December 9 during an extended and restricted COREPER session.
Sources told us the chair, Dutch Ambassador Tom De Bruijn
opened the discussion saying there were "bigger fish to fry"
(i.e., Turkey),and the Presidency had no intention revising
the text further, and so would stick with its original text
on Croatia. The UK and others who have suggested not
including a date in the Conclusions said they would desist,
if the Presidency's approach was adopted. Luxembourg,
supported by Austria and Germany, however, raised their
proposal, but there was no consensus. The Dutch text,
therefore, will be that presented to the GAERC on December
13, and the Dutch are unlikely to invite further debate on it
there (although at some point a date needs to be inserted).
A UK source said, however, that most Member States expect the
Austrians to raise the issue.


5. (C) A Belgian contact told us the GOB very much hoped to
reach consensus on the Croatia text at as low a level as
possible. FM de Gucht has taken a strong stance on ICTY
conditionality after being personally persuaded by del Ponte
that the Croatians were hood-winking the EU; but the Belgian
position could weaken if the Croatia issue is debated fully
at Heads level, where German and Austrian Chancellors
Schroeder and Schuessel continue to campaign actively for
weak conditionality. Our British contact noted that,
whatever might be agreed at among Ambassadors or even FMs,
there would always remain a good chance of an Austrian or
German "ambush" at the Summit on December 17.


6. (C) Assuming the Dutch will not be able to avoid any
further re-opening of the text, the position taken by some of
the uncommitted Member States will be important. The UK,
Sweden, Belgium, and Latvia are definitely among those
clearly favoring conditionality. Slovenia has been waffling,
apparently as it evaluates how best to advance its own
bilateral issues with Croatia. But FM Rupel is almost
certain to speak up, and at length, if the issue gets opened
a the GAERC, and it would be helpful to know which way he
will go. A contact here also indicated they had heard Madrid
was considering coming out in support of the Dutch text as
the best way forward. If FM Moratinos would do so at the
GAERC it would give the conditionality camp a big boost. In
the other direction, we note that some other Member States
such as Hungary and Malta (Refs C and D) are moving more
solidly into group favoring an easing off on conditionality.

MCKINLEY