MEPP: EU IS FOCUSED ON PA ELECTIONS TO GET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004936

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA - L.DIBBLE; NEA/IPA AND EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2009
TAGS: PREL KPAL EAID IS EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: MEPP: EU IS FOCUSED ON PA ELECTIONS TO GET
ROADMAP BACK ON TRACK


Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. In meetings with a wide range of EU
officials, NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble discussed next steps in
the Middle East Peace Process on November 16. The EU is
focused on the need to support Palestinian presidential
elections as a first step to getting the roadmap back on
track. The EU looks to Israel to ease restrictions on
movement in the territories to permit elections, and to
coordinate with the Palestinians on the economic aspects of
the Gaza disengagement plan. The EU looks to the U.S. to
work with Israel on both issues, and floated the idea of
articulating with the U.S. a more detailed vision of a
negotiated solution as a means to spur the roadmap forward.
End Summary.


2. (C) On November 16, NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble held US-EU
COMEP (Middle East Peace Process) discussions with EU
officials; met separately with EU Special Middle East Envoy
Marc Otte and EU High Rep Solana's Foreign Policy Advisor
Robert Cooper; and participated in an informal donors meeting
in advance of the December Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC)
meeting on assistance to the Palestinian Authority (PA).

EU Post-Arafat Priorities
--------------

3. (C) EU Special Envoy Marc Otte outlined three main
priorities for US-EU (and Quartet) coordination: Supporting
Palestinian presidential elections in 60 days; supporting PA
efforts to maintain and enhance law and order and national
unity; and providing economic assistance to keep the PA
solvent. He saw Abu Mazen as the likely winner of
presidential elections, and viewed him as the one candidate
who could bridge the old/young and inside/outside(Tunisia)
splits in the PLO. Otte said Abu Mazen told him and EU High
Rep Solana in Ramallah at Arafat's funeral that he, Abu
Mazen, now controlled security forces and was focused on
restoring law and order, has been in touch with Hamas, which
Abu Mazen said would support a Palestinian State in the West
Bank/Gaza strip if it is involved in the political process.
Abu Mazen asked for help in two areas: rebuilding the police
force, and forging a cease-fire leading to a political
process that would enable him to disarm militias. On the
economic front, PA Finance Minister Fayyad needs end of year
help and wants the international community to press Arab
states to deliver on their pledges to support the PA
financially.


4. (C) Commission Middle East Director Christian Leffler
reinforced the point that elections within 60 days are key,
but also stressed the need to support Fayyad and keep the PA
afloat financially. It will be difficult for the EU, he
said, to find additional money before 2005; one or two EU
member states may soon announce a contribution to the PA's
Trust Fund, but Fayyad is "running out of both ideas and
money now." Leffler urged "weekly" US-EU pressure on Arab
states, who are enjoying an enormous oil-price windfall, to
close the end-of-year PA budget shortfall. He also pointedly
called on the U.S. to make a donation to the Trust Fund. He
welcomed Israel's recent decision to transfer tax receipts,
which should be encouraged to continue as a gesture of
goodwill toward Fayyad.

Solana message to Israel: support elections
--------------

5. (C) Otte said Solana's message to the Israelis following
Arafat's funeral was that while there was no need of public
statements embracing Abu Mazen, there was also no need to
"test" the emerging Palestinian leadership; they were known
quantities. Israel needs to lift the closures, improve
living conditions in the territories, and allow movement to
facilitate elections, including in East Jerusalem. Solana
told the Israelis that the EU would do everything it could to
ensure the Palestinians do the right things. He said the
Israelis he met with (including Weisglass) responded
positively.


6. (C) Leffler noted that the EU had reviewed how election
observation was handled in 1996, and said that at that time
the EC spent 20 million Euros for all aspects of presidential
and parliamentary elections: preparation, technical
assistance, and observation. The fielded 300 out of a total
of 600 international observers. Otte said the Palestinians
want international observers on the ground "so the Israelis
will behave." Otte asked whether the Quartet should not soon
begin endorsing the concept of international observers. EU
officials said they agree with the U.S. that the PA should
focus on presidential elections now; municipal elections
should follow and not be held simultaneously. Leffler said
the EC strongly insisted on this point; under current PA
plans municipal elections would be fatally flawed. Leffler
said the PA has submitted an initial request for 5.8 million
dollars in assistance for the Presidential election. Leffler
noted that the EU would be able to provide the bulk of that
amount from existing funds, but that there would be a
shortfall of approximately 1 to 1.5 million dollars that
would have to come from other donors.

EU seeks more US engagement
--------------

7. (C) EU officials across the board stressed the need for
political and financial support for the emerging Palestinian
leadership, and for U.S. engagement to get the roadmap back
on track. Solana Foreign Policy Advisor Cooper said the EU
has been disappointed by past U.S. rhetoric that was not
matched by actions. Dutch Presidency MFA rep den Hond
pressed for the US and EU to articulate a more detailed
vision of the two-state solution that would clarify the end
state of final status issues. In response, DAS Dibble
commented that this was premature, given the need to get past
elections and give both parties time to build confidence.
Commission Middle East Director Leffler urged the U.S. to
provide direct assistance to the Palestinian Authority. All
EU officials noted the importance of Israel making gestures
and taking steps to support Palestinian elections by easing
restrictions on movement in the territories, facilitating
voter registration, releasing detainees, reducing its
military incursions and presence, and promoting Egyptian-PA
efforts for a cease-fire. They said they look to the U.S. to
work with Israel on these issues.

AHLC informal donors meeting
--------------

8. (C) Representatives from Norway, Canada, the
Netherlands, and the World Bank joined US and EU officials
for an informal meeting to -discuss the upcoming AHLC
meeting, which all agreed would be one of the most important
ever. Notwithstanding a sharp exchange between Leffler and
the Norwegian rep over a relatively minor scheduling issue,
general agreement was reached on an approach to the meeting.
Norway circulated a draft agenda, and agreed to draft and
circulate a framework chairman's summary. This would begin
with a preambular statement referring to previous Quartet
statements and laying out the political context of the
meeting that would make clear the agenda was broader than
just Gaza disengagement, but was linked to the objective of a
political process. The Summary would report donors'
assessment of the WB report on Gaza disengagement as useful
work, but will note the need for more to be done to ensure
the economic viability of Gaza. The summary will list
specific projects that need financing in Gaza, including the
port (a RO-RO facility),the airport/heliport, and water
projects. The chairman's summary would also address Trust
Fund/Budget issues, noting the needs of the PA and recording
what donors (especially Arab donors) intend to provide in
terms of end-of-year budget support in 2004 and in 2005. The
summary would note Israel's impressive effort to implement
disengagement and the importance of the AHLC reciprocating
with a program to support the process. Finally, the summary
should set a date for a follow-on pledging conference and
AHLC to demonstrate that a process is underway.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) The EU has high expectations that the U.S. will
increase its engagement following Arafat's demise to take
advantage of the resulting window of opportunity to move
ahead on the roadmap. They are, however, more focused on how
the U.S. can persuade Israel to take a list of steps to work
back to the roadmap than on how to ensure the new Palestinian
leadership takes action to curb terrorist violence and
demonstrate that it is a credible negotiating partner.

McKinley