Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRUSSELS4346
2004-10-08 13:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

EU: PARTING THOUGHTS FROM RELEX COMMISSIONER CHRIS

Tags:  PREL EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004346 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2014
TAGS: PREL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU: PARTING THOUGHTS FROM RELEX COMMISSIONER CHRIS
PATTEN


Classified By: Political Counselor Kyle Scott. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004346

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2014
TAGS: PREL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU: PARTING THOUGHTS FROM RELEX COMMISSIONER CHRIS
PATTEN


Classified By: Political Counselor Kyle Scott. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. Ambassador held a reflective October 6
farewell meeting with RELEX Commissioner Patten, whose term
expires at the end of the month. Patten called the
Commission's decision earlier that day to recommend in favor
of starting accession negotiations with Turkey "the most
important decision I've been a part of" at the Commission.
Patten suggested that Atlantic powers "have two decades to
shape the world" -- after that, economic and demographic
trends argue in favor of India and China. Patten doubted
whether the EU Constitution will ever be ratified, and
worried about growing French disaffection with the EU that
could lead Paris to "bring the temple down." He believes
incoming Commission President Barosso has several advantages
over his two immediate predecessors, but said Barosso is
mistaken in trying run the Commission in presidential style.
Patten suggested Commissioners Verheugen, Wallstrom, and
Mandelson bear watching as future Commission heavyweights.
He worried that the US and EU may split on Iran, and urged
more visible US activity on the Middle East peace process.
End summary.

Turkey
--------------


2. (C) Over drinks at the end of a long day, Patten was
clearly pleased with the decision announced earlier in the
day to recommend in favor of launching accession negotiations
with Turkey. He called it "the most important decision I
have taken part in during my entire tenure on the
Commission." Patten noted that at the beginning of the Prodi
Commission, only he and Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen
were in favor of Turkish enlargement. He stressed that the
EU has proven very successful at reform, and that Europeans
will increasingly come to realize the advantages of having
Turkey inside the EU.


3. (C) In particular, Patten said that Turkish membership
would make the EU a more serious player in defense, and also
give it strategic weight in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
He also pointed to the disturbing demographic trends in
Europe, and the contribution that Turkey's large population
could make in this regard. He predicted that smart
investors will begin to pour money into Turkey (at times at

the expense of other newer EU members in Central and Eastern
Europe). Patten also expressed the view that the Erdogan/Gul
duo was the "most impressive" leadership team in all of
Europe today.


4. (C) Patten thanked the U.S. for its low-key approach to
Turkish accession over the last few months, and encouraged US
leaders to keep "piano" as well through the crucial Council
decision in December.

EU - Amazing, But It Actually Works
--------------


5. (C) Patten expressed his own amazement that EU
institutions, "pieced together with rubber bands, chewing gum
and blue tack" actually perform. He refuted arguments that
Europe has become sclerotic and unable to compete, but said
he does have long-term concerns about basic demographic
factors, and Europe's long-term competitiveness vis-a-vis
rising powers in China and India. He suggested the Atlantic
countries have two decades to shape the world. Beyond that,
and he predicted economic and demographic trends favor a rise
in power for India and China. He was particularly
enthusiastic about India's future, noting that -- in contrast
to China -- India's democratic system means it will not have
to cope with new political structures as its economy rapidly
expands.


6. (C) In the meantime, the EU will "continue to lumber along
-- against all odds." The EU of today is neither the one
envisioned by Monet and Schumann, nor the Europe managed by
Adenauer and De Gaulle in years gone by. With the most
recent enlargement, the Franco-German engine can no longer
drive the Union, Patten said, and he was especially concerned
that France was getting nervous about its waning influence.
The lingua franca of the EU is now english, and countries
appear increasingly willing to stand up to France and tell
them "no." Barosso's decision to give France the minor
Transport portfolio was a major blow, and Patten worried that
there is a growing feeling in Paris that it might be better
to "bring the temple down."


7. (C) Patten also predicted that the EU Constitution would
not be ratified, suggesting that it may fail to gain
ratification in three or more countries.

The Barosso Commission
--------------


8. (C) Patten judged the incoming Commission President to be
a "smart, cautious politician." He starts his tenure with
several advantages over his two most recent predecessors,
Patten suggested. First, he is extremely articulate in
several languages. Secondly, he has been selected without
any political obligations. This offered him additional room
for maneuver, which he had used decisively in forming his
Commission. Third, Barosso does not face any European
leaders who are serious competitors in putting forward a
vision for the future of Europe. (On the flip-side, Patten
noted that there are also no political leaders in Europe who
are prepared to make difficult decisions to pursue a
visionary policy.)


9. (C) Still, Patten suggested Barosso was mistaken if he
believed he could manage the Commission in presidential
style. He said Barosso "should have begged" to keep either
(outgoing Italian Commissioners) Monti or Vitorino, and then
established a structure with three senior Vice Presidents:
Monti/Vitorino, Verheugen, and Wallstrom. As it now stands,
Patten predicted that Verheugen, Wallstrom, and incoming UK
Commissioner Mandelson will be the centers of gravity in the
Commission below Barosso. He suggested, however, that
Wallstrom might in fact leave in the near future to pursue
politics back in her home country.

On US-EU Relations
--------------


10. (C) Patten said managing transatlantic relations will
remain a challenge no matter who wins in the US elections in
November. Patten said many Europeans disagree with US
policies, but not American values -- but posited that even
this could not be guaranteed in the long run. In the post
9/11 world, every European now has a horror story about US
visa/border entry hassles -- either personally or someone
they know. The world's best and brightest, who traditionally
went to the US to study and then stayed, are increasingly
reluctant to do so -- a fact Patten said he hopes to
capitalize on in his next job at Oxford University. Besides
border policies, Europeans simply don't understand American
attitudes about guns. For many of his countrymen in England,
Patten suggested, Athens, Ohio is now more foreign than
Athens, Greece. And yes, Patten admitted, there are many
European elites who resent the United States precisely
because America did Europe so many favors over the preceding
decades.


11. (C) Still, Patten remains convinced that the EU will need
to devote increased attention to transatlantic relations.
That is why he pushed so hard to have a political appointee
Ambassador selected for Washington (vice a Commission
functionary). Patten noted that it took 15 months to get
John Bruton's nomination through the bureaucracy -- and
suggested in the end it only happened because Bruton is a
close personal friend of Manuel Barosso.


12. (C) He advised the US to also re-think its relations with
Europe. In so doing, Patten suggested the US should tell the
EU that America will only listen to European views if Europe
is also ready to play a serious role in implementing the
policies adopted. He suggested the next US Administration
approach Europe openly and say: we need this relationship,
but what are you (Europe) going to contribute? If the US
goes down the multilateral road Europe wants, will there be
any Europeans at the end of the path if the bullets begin to
fly? In a nutshell, he suggested the US should ask Europe
("courteously, of course") to ante up. Iran, he suggested,
will be the next major test for the relationship. The West
needed carrots to offer the Iranians, but also needed sticks.
The Middle East is another area for more work, and Patten
suggested the next US President needs to "look a little moreenergetic" in
working the peace process.

Scott