EUR DAS TEFFT REVIEWS RUSSIA, UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003881

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/RUS, EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2009
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER RS EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EUR DAS TEFFT REVIEWS RUSSIA, UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND
BELARUS WITH EU OFFICIALS


Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. In meetings with EU officials on
September 10, EUR DAS Tefft discussed recent events in
Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. EU officials viewed
the Beslan attack as a failure of Putin's Chechnya policy,
expected him to respond by doing more of the same, and
predicted cooler EU-Russian relations as Putin moves away
from the shared values embodied in the OSCE. Free and fair
presidential elections in Ukraine would "change everything"
in EU relations with Kiev. The EU agreed to consider the US
draft text on Moldova's security pact initiative, both as a
means of blocking a possible "Kozak II" plan from Russia and
to spur a pentagonal meeting. Lukashenko's announced
referendum was a step backward for Belarus, and EU officials
suggested DAS Tefft explore with his Dutch counterpart the
timing and purpose of a possible joint demarche to Minsk in
October. EU officials in the Council and Commission
expressed firm commitment to coordinating policy and actions
in the region with the US. End Summary.


2. (C) On September 10, EUR DAS John Tefft met with Council
Secretariat and Commission officials to discuss recent events

SIPDIS
in and US-EU coordination on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and
Moldova. At the Council Secretariat, DAS Tefft met with
Robert Cooper, Solana's Foreign Policy Advisor; Stefan Lehne,
Cooper's Unit Chief for Balkan and CIS issues; Jukka Leskala,
Section head for Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus; and Carl
Hallergard, Ukraine desk. DAS Tefft met separately with Kees
van Rij, CIS Task Force head for Solana's Policy planning
unit, and with Hugues Mingarelli, Commission director for CIS
programs.

Cooper on Russia
--------------

3. (C) DAS Tefft provided a readout of his meetings the day
before in Moscow. Cooper said the EU had sensed Russia
taking a tougher line on foreign policy issues for some time,
and is concerned that the Beslan attack will reinforce
Putin's authoritarian tendencies. Cooper observed that every
18 months or so, Russia has a major disaster (Cooper referred
to the submarine incident),following which Russia goes
through a period of turmoil, but in the end nothing changes.
Cooper said the Beslan incident illustrates the complete
failure of Putin's Chechnya policy. What's worrisome, he
added, is that since what he's done has failed, Putin will do
more of it. Discussing how to persuade Putin that Beslan
demonstrates the need for Russia to resolve other frozen
conflicts (e.g. South Ossetia),Cooper said perhaps the EU
should offer to work with Russia to enhance border security.
The turmoil inside Russia would continue for some time, he
said, but it might be worthwhile to get some ideas in there
now. Maybe Russia could be persuaded of the benefits of
dealing "with the easy bits around the edges" of Chechnya.


4. (C) Lehne observed that Putin, in his speech after
Beslan, seemed to blame the incident on the breakup of the
Soviet Union. Hartzell observed that Russia feels weak after
Beslan, and won't want to make any deals on frozen conflicts
now. Russia prefers to negotiate from a position of
strength. Cooper agreed that Beslan would make it harder to
engage Russia productively on Transnistria, noting that Putin
may "win" Transnistria but, in the process, lose Moldova.
Hartzell commented that Russia always seems to support
yesterday's people; Cooper added that one never loses credit
in the Russian MFA for failing to reach a political
settlement.

CIS Summit will criticize OSCE
--------------

5. Van Rij informed Tefft that the CIS summit in Astana on
September 16 will adopt a "very bad" statement critical of
the OSCE. The CIS states want the OSCE to focus on terrorism
and security issues, rather than on democracy or human
rights. Van Rij, who has seen the draft text, believe an
increasingly nationalistic Russia, less interested in common
values with Europe, is behind the document. He said Russia
wants to use the CIS summit to bring Ukraine, Moldova and
Georgia "back into the fold" and predicted a difficult period
ahead in EU-Russian relations, should Russia continue to
distance itself from basic OSCE values.

Ukraine: Elections and Transnistria
--------------

6. (C) Following DAS Tefft's assessment of the upcoming
presidential elections in Ukraine, Cooper noted that free and
fair elections "would change everything" for the EU in terms
of its engagement with Kiev. Cooper said he tells the Poles,
who urge closer EU ties to Ukraine, "if the EU takes Turkey,
it can't say no to Ukraine." Van Rij said he was impressed
with new First Deputy FM Motsyk, who recently took a line
different from Kuchma -- even in talks with Smirnov -- and
said that Urkaine agreed with the EU on some things regarding
the recent school closings in Transnistria. Van Rij relayed
recent rumors, which he found eminently plausible -- that
Urkainian elites including Medvedchuk, Kuchma relatives and
even Chernomyrdin had recently acquired equity holdings in
Transnistrian steel. Thus, van Rij saw little hope that
Ukraine would take a tough stand on Smirnov in Transnistria.


7. (C) At the Commission, Mingarelli said the EU's
Neighborhood Policy goal for Ukraine is to integrate the
country into the EU's internal market. The EU will open up
its markets following Ukraine's WTO accession, help Ukraine
meet EU commercial standards, and wants to integrate Ukraine
into Europe's transportation network. The EU also plans to
ease the movement of people by introducing a short-term visa
for Ukraine, working to enhance border controls, and funding
exchanges in the areas of research, education, energy and
transport. EU assistance in these areas will be conditioned
on democratic reform, with initial focus on the Presidential
elections, where EU observers will work under an OSCE
mandate. Mingarelli said Kuchma complained at last July's
EU-Ukraine summit that the EU criticized Kiev for its
elections, but said nothing about Russia's presidential
elections.

Moldova/Transnistria
--------------

8. (C) DAS Tefft shared with Cooper and van Rij the US
draft text of a Stability Pact statement on Moldova. Cooper
saw merit in the exercise as a way to show Voronin the US and
EU took his initiative seriously, and to give the Moldovans
an alternative to a possible Russian "Kozak II" plan. Cooper
also thought the EU could use the text as an opportunity to
try and organize a pentagonal meeting as well, once the
school crisis is resolved. Van Rij agreed that the text
could be useful to block a Kozak II initiative from Moscow.
He expressed relief that Voronin would not be traveling to
Astana for the CIS summit; the EU was concerned Moscow would
use the event to press Voronin to accept a Kozak II plan.
Van Rij said the EU was working on a medium-term strategy
paper on Moldova that analyzes the potential roles of
Moldova's neighbors in resolving Transnistria.


9. (C) Cooper said Smirnov sees an opportunity -- due to
the changed mood in Moscow -- to "pinch out a salient" and
take steps toward Transnistrian independence. This explained
Smirnov's recent closing of Moldovan language schools and his
actions with the railways. The Russians are trying to smooth
things over, Cooper said, but in ways that help Smirnov
consolidate his gains. Cooper said the EU, in addition to
the visa ban on education officials in Transnistria, was also
looking at freezing bank accounts.

Belarus
--------------

10. (C) Cooper said Lukashenko's referendum annoucement
introduced a new element in the equation, and the US and EU
should think carefully about timing and purpose of a joint
demarche to Minsk. Lehne commented that Lukashenko would not
have announced the referendum without being confident he
would win. Both predicted Putin would not block Lukashenko;
Cooper said the Russians refuse to put Belarus on the agenda
with the EU -- at one point remarking, "soon Belarus will be
an internal issue."


11. (C) Van Rij said the EU would soon be ready to announce
a travel ban on three former Belarusian ministers (Cooper
noted Hungary had raised a point of concern that might delay
announcement). He said the EU was looking at further steps,
too, should the situation warrant them, and had included in
its recent statement on the referendum that it was
considering "possible further steps." DAS Tefft raised a
question about the timing of announcing an expanded visa ban.
He suggested that we have limited leverage with Belarus and
that perhaps we should consider holding off on the visa ban
for use at the most optimum moment.


12. (C) Mingarelli argued that Europe should engage Balarus
more actively and at higher levels than at present. In
response to DAS Tefft's arguments against this line of
reasoning, Mingarelli acknowledged that although he
personally wants to step up the dialogue, this is not the
prevailing view in Brussels.


13. (U) This cable was cleared by DAS Tefft.

SCHNABEL