ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF SEPTEMBER 13 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003840

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014
TAGS: PREL IZ IR BK SU EAID BU CY EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF SEPTEMBER 13 GAERC

REF: A. STATE 193154

B. BRUSSELS 3822

C. USEU TODAY 09/08/2004

Classified By: Kyle Scott, PolMinCouns, Reasons 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) We have discussed reftel A points on the EU FMs'
General Affairs and
External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting on Sept. 13 with a
variety of EU
officials. EU Conclusions on Sudan should dovetail with the
main elements of
our draft UNSC Resolution. On Iran, we understand the EU
will issue a
statement (although perhaps not formal Conclusions) calling
on Iran to comply
with its IAEA obligations. For Iraq, EU officials expect
that EU Member State
contributions will cover a substantial part, if not all, of
the funds needed
for the UN force, and are talking to the UN about additional
support for
elections. Iraqi PM Allawi will be invited to the EU's
November 5 Summit. The
GAERC will also formally approve, without discussion, the
Concept of Operations
(CONOPS) for the upcoming EU force in Bosnia. Other issues
that should be
covered at the GAERC are Burma, Belarus, the Great Lakes and
(possibly) Serbia.
END SUMMARY.

Sudan/Darfur
--------------


2. (C) Council officials shared with us the draft conclusions
on Sudan being
prepared for the September 13 GAERC. Although minor
adjustments may still be
made, we were told the main elements are already agreed.
They dovetail with
the main elements of our draft UNSC resolution, including:
-- a call for a moratorium on all military air operations;
-- a statement of dissatisfaction with Sudanese
implementation of its
commitments to disarm militia groups;
-- concerns about "continuing reports about massive human
rights violations,
including systematic rape of women;
-- support for creation of an international commission of
inquiry;
-- willingness to further support an expansion of the AU
observer mission; and
-- a warning of possible sanctions against the GoS if no
tangible progress is
made.
The EU will also dispatch a fact-finding mission to see where
additional EU support
may be needed.

EU will issue statement on Iran
--------------


3. (C) While Dutch PermRep de Bruijn has told a background
press briefing that
Iran will be discussed in restricted session at lunch, and
lead to no formal
Conclusions, according to Council Secretariat officials
Sophie Kisling and
Andreas Strub, who work respectively on Iran and
Non-Proliferation issues, EU
ministers will issue a statement on Iran on the margins of
the GAERC. The
statement, which Strub had just drafted, will call on Iran to
comply with IAEA
guidelines and its international obligations, consistent with
the EU's
long-standing policy on Iran's nuclear program. Ministers
will seek to agree
on a common press line on Iran, which will express support
for the EU-3
efforts, and which will coincide with the start of the IAEA
Board meeting.
Strub said he understood that the EU-3 continue to work on a
common text for a
proposed IAEA Board resolution on Iran, and will brief
ministers at the GAERC.


4. (C) On the issue of referring Iran to the UNSC, Strub
said the recent IAEA
DG's report "could have been worse" for Iran. It shows, he
said, some Iranian
responsiveness to the IAEA. For example, the issue of
contamination, he said,
may never be clarified without Iran's suppliers coming clean
on what they
provided Iran -- and moving the issue to the Security
Council, where Russia is
a member -- won't necessarily help. In Strub's view, moving
the issue to the
Security Council will require carefully defining what Iran
must do to comply
with the IAEA: exactly which dual-use activities will the
UNSC insist Iran
halt, which will be permitted, and will these standards apply
to other
countries (e.g. Israel)? How the UNSC frames these issues
will influence
Iran's response, Strub said, and this should be carefully
considered before
moving to the UNSC.

Iraq: Funding UN Security Force
--------------


5. (C) The GAERC Conclusions on Iraq have already been
agreed at PermRep level
and will endorse the EU's plan to meet with the Iraqi Interim
Government in New
York during UNGA week, as well as an invitation to PM Allawi
to attend the
November 5 EU Summit in Brussels. A discussion of the
Italian and French
hostages in Iraq is also expected. Kisling, who also covers
Iraq at the
Council, said that the legal basis for funding Iraq does not
allow funding for
military operations, although the Commission, Council and
member states are
looking carefully at this issue. She said a legal brief is
being prepared, but
she has not seen it. At present, the best option is for
funding to come from
member states, as Dutch FM Bot has asked them to do. She
said the Dutch have a
contribution in mind, and the Germans are willing to use some
of their pledge
for election support to fund the UN protection force. Other
member states are
working in capitals to see what they can pledge, and this
will be discussed at
the GAERC. Kisling commented that the sum in question -- $26
million -- was
not huge; she did not know if member states would make up the
full amount but
thought it likely they would cover a substantial part of this
sum.

Iraq: UN Election Appeal
--------------


6. (C) Kisling said the Commission has pledged 15 million
euros, and is
talking to the UN and the Iraqi Election Commission. The EU
is not likely to
fund the entire shortfall, she said, but the Commission was
talking to the UN
about reallocating some of its 2004 80 million euro
contribution to the UN
Trust Fund (under the International Reconstruction Fund for
Iraq) for election
support.

Iraq: Election Observation -- maybe a lite version
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Kisling said that Iraq is on the EU's list for
possible observation,
but all is contingent on the security situation.
Commissioner Patten is dead
set against sending EU personnel to Iraq, so she did not
foresee an election
observation mission under the current Commission (whose
tenure ends November
1). She thought perhaps the EU could send election experts
and, at the most,
possibly offer the kind of monitoring that it has undertaken
in Afghanistan,
but this was her personal opinion. A parliament contact told
us security
concerns would result in few MEP volunteers for an
observation mission.
Operation Althea: Bosnia Handover
--------------


8. (C) The CONOPS has been finalized by the PSC and should be
approved at the
September 13 GAERC as an "A point" (adopted without any
discussion). We have
been assured by planners within the EU Military Staff that
things are moving
forward as anticipated. A force generation conference is
scheduled for
September 15, and an OPLAN should be completed shortly. The
EU Military
Committee should sign off on the OPLAN by the end of
September. While there
remains some uncertainty about the date for the Transfer of
Authority, the EU
Military Staff (EUMS) is aware of US plans to depart MNB
North on November 30,
and they are keen to avoid any gaps in on-the-ground
presence. A formal
decision by the EU to launch the operation is expected in
November. That
decision will establish an official takeover date.

Other Issues: Burma, Belarus, Great Lakes, and Serbia
-------------- --------------


9. (C) PermRep de Bruijn said the Presidency "expects that
(the Gymnich)
conclusions will be confirmed" on EU consideration of tougher
measures against
Burma (Ref B),despite reports of French objections (French
FM Barnier was
unable to attend the Gymnich meeting) in particular to
proposed restrictions on
EU companies investing in named Burmese state-owned
enterprises. A Council
staffer told us that bilateral discussions between Barnier
and Dutch FM Bot
would likely continue over the weekend, and that a last
minute PermRep
Committee (COREPER) meeting early in the morning on Sept. 13
was still
possible. But the UK and others have signaled clearly they
have no margin for
flexibility to back down vis-a-vis Burma at this point.


10. (C) Due in particular to the insistence at least one of
the Baltic states,
the GAERC will also consider how the EU should respond to
Belarusian President
Lukashenko's announcement of an impending referendum there.
A Dutch Presidency
source told us that the Political and Security Committee has
prepared a forceful
message to be issued as Council conclusions. As reported REF
C, the EU's Political
and Security Committee has agreed the EU should impose travel
restrictions on Belarus
officials, although we are told the final list will likely be
decided after the GAERC.


11. (SBU) The FMs' luncheon on Sept. 13 will also cover the
situation in the
Great Lakes region in Africa, in particular the government
crisis in Kinshasa,
but no decisions or Conclusions are anticipated. EU member
states are still
seeking an agreed approach on MONUC renewal. The key
question is whether to
extend the existing mission, or seek to reinforce it.
Finally, the Hungarian
government was pushing add the treatment of the Hungarian
ethnic minority in
the Serbian province of Vojvodina to the GAERC agenda.
According to our
source, there was no enthusiasm from other EU Member States
for raising the
issue to the ministerial level at this point, but Budapest
"appeared intent" on
forcing a discussion of the issue.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

SCHNABEL