COMMISSION PERSPECTIVE ON JULY 12 GAERC

1. (C) Commission officials tell us the July 12 General
Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting will
not see many serious decisions before the EU FMs. A featured
item would be a lunch discussion with Iraqi PM Allawi (which
we now understand may be cancelled or postponed). The
principal decision before the GAERC (as noted ref B) is how
the EU will handle Burmese pariticipation at the October ASEM
Summit. End Summary.

IRAQ


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2. (SBU) PolOff delivered ref A points on July 8 to Nick
Banner of External Relations Commissioner Patten's staff.
Banner indicated ("it may take a while") the Commission was
not likely to open an office in Baghdad soon, due to the
security situation. He said Patten expected some Member
States would push for the Commission to at least send an
"exploratory mission" to Iraq, and that Patten was prepared
to listen to the arguments for that. Regarding Iraqi PM
Allawi's planned lunch appearance, Banner said the EU FMs
would be particularly interested to hear Allawi's plans for
the national conference and the overall democratization
process, as well as how the IIG planned to address the
security situation. (NOTE: Subsequent to our meeting, we now
understand from The Hague - ref C - that Allawi may not make
the GAERC. It remains possible, but not at all certain, that
the Iraqi FM may appear in his place.)

AFGHANISTAN


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3. (C) Banner said the EU aimed to "do what we can to give
credibility" to the electoral process. The Commission is
working on plans for electoral technical assistance in Kabul.
But in the provinces, from the Commission's perspective, it
would "just not be safe enough to send long term election
observers." Banner stressed this was the Commission's
assessment regarding an EU mission; it is not meant to
prejudge what the OSCE would decide to do. He commented that
at least some EU member states were likely to push for an
OSCE mission (Commission South Asia Director Julian Wilson
has underscored - ref E - that while the EC's electoral
support would be more limited than originally hoped due to
security concerns, they had no intent to dissuade the OSCE or
others from doing what they could.)

BURMA/ASEM


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4. (C) Banner commented that back in March, at the ASEM
ministerial in Ireland, the EU had laid out its conditions
for accepting full Burmese participation at the EU-ASEM
Summit in Hanoi this October, including a credible structure
(with NLD participation) for the national conference and
release of Aung San Suu Kyi. At the recent ARF meeting, the
EU had been told by its Asian counterparts that ASEAN was
prepared to accept an EU-ASEM Summit format where Burma would
only attend at a much lower level than head of state or
government. The EU was now deliberating on whether it would
accept such an arrangement, with some still holding out for a
tougher line, refusing any Burmese participation until some
positive moves are made by Rangoon -- but that would almost
certainly mean cancellation of the Hanoi Summit. Banner
commented that one source of EU confusion on this issue was
that the Dutch Presidency itself appeared divided on the
proper course to recommend.

NEW ITEMS: SUDAN, HAITI, ISRAEL; ENP DROPPED


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5. (SBU) Banner said that the GAERC might endorse some
additional humanitarian assistance for the Darfur crisis in
Sudan. He did not have a figure, but per our discussions
with other EU officials (Ref D), we believe it could be 40
million euros. The EU FMs will also discuss Haiti, with
France pushing for the Commission to commit more assistance
funds, something Banner said was unlikely in the immediate
future. A final GAERC item (added on July 8, also at French
insistence) was the EU's response to a recent refusal by the
Israeli government to receive the Quartet envoys (ref F).
Banner said GAERC Conclusions regretting the Israeli stance
were possible, but little more than that.


6. (SBU) Banner also said that the European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP) Action Plans had been dropped from the GAERC
agenda, because the only one that was ready was with Moldova.
The Commmission preferred to postpone the discussion until
an autumn GAERC, when it hoped to have ready additonal Action
Plans with Jordan, Morocco, and possibly Ukraine, Israel and
the Palestinian Authority.

MINIMIZE CONSIDERED

MCKINLEY