Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRUSSELS2368
2004-06-03 10:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

KEY TOPICS FOR EU FMS' MEETING AND SUMMIT, JUNE 14

Tags:  PREL PGOV EAID PINR EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002368 

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID PINR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: KEY TOPICS FOR EU FMS' MEETING AND SUMMIT, JUNE 14
AND JUNE 17-18


Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002368

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID PINR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: KEY TOPICS FOR EU FMS' MEETING AND SUMMIT, JUNE 14
AND JUNE 17-18


Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. The headline issues for the June 14 EU FMs' meeting and
the June 17-18 EU Summit will be the final round of
Constitutional Treaty negotiations and the nomination of the
next generation of key EU leaders (Commission President, CFSP
High Rep). But a substantial list of other topics will also
be on the meeting agendas. Likely topics include Iraq, Iran,
Afghanistan, counter-terror, WMD, the EU Arms Agency,
Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia (and possibly other Balkan topics
such as UNMIK and Serb elections),Russia, the European
Neighborhood Initiative, Sudan, Burma and Nepal. The Irish
are even pondering a "bland" reference to Transatlantic
relations. While few of these topics will actually receive
much substantive debate at ministerial or summit level, the
Irish Presidency is at work on draft Conclusions for nearly
all of these topics. END SUMMARY

A BIG WEEK FOR THE EU
--------------


2. (SBU) The week of June 14th will be the culmination of the
Irish EU Presidency, with Foreign Ministers meeting in
Luxembourg on June 14 for a General Affairs and External
Relations Council (GAERC) meeting, and gathering again with
EU Heads of State and Government for the EU Summit meeting in
Brussels on June 17-18. The headline issues for both
meetings, and -- at least within the EU -- the measure of
whether the Irish Presidency has been a success, will be if
the EU can successfully conclude its negotiations on a new
Constitutional Treaty and who they pick as the next European
Commission President and the next High Rep for the Common
Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). We believe the chances
are better than even that the Irish will be able to reach an
agreement on the Constitutional Treaty, although the specific
details of how some issues such as voting formulas will come
out are harder to predict. But in any case, it is unlikely
that significant changes will occur in policy areas of direct

interest to the US such as the European Security and Defense
Policy (ESDP). The possibility that CFSP could in some
circumstances be a matter of Qualified Majority Vote (QMV)
rather than unanimity remains an agenda item, but we doubt it
would be agreed. The Commission President race, however,
remains highly unpredictable. The fact that there are three
rumored "front runners" (Belgian PM Verhofstadt, Luxembourger
PM Juncker and Portuguese Commissioner Vitorino) from among a
very long list of possibilities means that in reality there
is no front runner and "none of the above" is as good a bet
as any. By contrast, it is almost guaranteed that Javier
Solana will be renominated as CFSP High Rep, unless he
emerges as a last-minute compromise candidate for Commission
President.


3. (SBU) While the above issues will be getting almost all
the attention during the big week, the GAERC and Summit
meetings will also have long agendas of other items, few of
which will get much substantive discussion by FMs or Heads,
but most of which will be discussed in the official
Conclusions of the meetings.

MIDDLE EAST, MEPP, IRAQ
--------------


4. (C) The Commission is due to send to the EU Member States
on June 9 a document outlining a "Medium Term Strategy" for
Iraq (septel). FMs and Heads will "welcome, review and
possibly endorse" this strategy, an Irish source told us. A
similar approach is possible for an anticipated "EU Strategic
Partnership for the Mediterranean and Middle East Regions."
Finally the Summit, and possibly the GAERC as well, will
issue Conclusions on the Middle East Peace Process, but our
sources indicate there is unlikely to be much substance
beyond what was discussed at the last Quartet meeting and
familiar statements underlining the need to implement the
road map. The EU on June 14 will also be holding its
inaugural Association Council meeting with Egypt, subsequent
to the recent signing of an EU-Egypt Association Agreement.

IRAN (POSSIBLY)
--------------


5. (C) Our Irish source told us that the EU will be primed to
respond to the most recent IAEA report and any implications
of it for Iran's relationship with the EU, and will almost
feel compelled to do so as earlier GAERC's have committed the
EU FMs to actively follow the issue. Our source confessed to
a secret hope, however, that the IAEA report, which is
scheduled to be presented to the IAEA Board of Governors on
June 14, might come out so late that the EU will not have to
offer any substantive response, since the crowded agendas of
the meetings will make any serious discussion of the issue
difficult.

AFGHANISTAN
--------------


6. (C) EU FMs at the GAERC are to discuss what EU role might
be possible in support of the upcoming elections. The
Commission, which usually organizes such activities for the
EU, has expressed concerns about the security situation and
burgeoning drug trade.

WMD, COUNTER TERRORISM, AND OTHER JHA MATTERS
--------------


7. (C) The GAERC should review the implementation of the EU's
WMD strategy and adopt a declaration on criminal sanctions on
WMD related material. The Summit is also likely to reiterate
EU support for the PSI statement of interdiction principles.
The EU Summit Conclusions should include a "substantial
section" on counter terrorism efforts, based on the work of
the EU's new "anti-terror czar" Gijs de Vries. The Summit is
also set to consider a Commission report (released on June 2)
on how the EU is doing on coordination and implementation of
other justice and home affairs (JHA) projects such as law
enforcement cooperation and immigration policies. This
report comes five years after the 1999 EU Summit in Tampere,
Finland set a lengthy agenda for such work.

ESDP
--------------


8. (C/NF) The meetings will conduct a traditional "end of
term" review of progress and activities in developing ESDP.
Among possible items for decision would be approval to move
ahead on the "battle groups" proposal. The Irish also remain
hopeful that the GAERC will approve a Joint Action on
establishment of the new EU Arms Agency. The Agency has been
a repeated subject of discussion just below the level of the
Political and Security Committee as Member States such as the
British and Dutch seek to ensure that agreed procedures
maintain some constraints over what the Agency can do,
particularly by ensuring that small groups cannot use the
agency to promote projects unless a majority of Member States
support the idea (even if they do not all choose to
participate).

ENLARGEMENT: CROATIA, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, BUT LITTLE ON TURKEY
-------------- --------------


9. (C) The next round(s) of EU enlargement will also figure
on the week's agendas. The Irish sound confident they will
be able to close all of the remaining negotiating chapters
for Bulgaria's accession. They also expect to conclude some
additional chapters with Romania, although the Irish focus
has been on Bulgaria to "allow the Dutch to focus on just one
country." Croatia, another Irish source told us, is
"virtually guaranteed" to be named an official candidate for
EU membership at the Summit. But it is still a pending
question whether the EU will fix a date for beginning
accession negotiations with Croatia. According to our Irish
contact, this has nothing to do with remaining question marks
over Croatia's ICTY cooperation, but are only related to
France's "enlargement fatigue" and the worries of several
Member States about setting a precedent for the December
decision on Turkey. The June Summit is expected to make at
most cursory mention of Turkey in its Conclusions.

RUSSIA AND EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD INITIATIVE
--------------


10. (SBU) The Summit will likely include positive language
about developments in EU-Russia relations over the past six
months. The Irish Presidency appears keen to highlight what
they see as one of their successes in "taking a clearer look
at identifying what we wanted out of the relationship and
creating a proper structure for handling it." They will
likely look to highlight the results of the recent EU-Russia
Summit. The Summit should also approve the Commission's
proposals for the European Neighborhood Initiative and
confirm that Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are potential
participants within the scope of the project, with Georgia
being the initial candidate for further interaction.

SUDAN
--------------


11. (SBU) The Summit is likely to issue language addressing
the Sudan crisis, according to one of our Irish sources, but
it was unclear what precisely the EU would include. One
possibility could be an offer of support for EU monitors for
a cease-fire in the country, but that is not yet decided.
(NOTE: Members of the EU Military Staff have reacted very
negatively to the prospect of being asked to undertake any
sort of ESDP mission in Sudan at a time when they are fully
engaged in Bosnia planning.)

BURMA/ASEM AND NEPAL
--------------


12. (C) The EU continues to struggle with how to respond to
the pending enlargement of ASEAN, including Burma as a
member. The GAERC should review the EU's approach to the
problem, including the question of whether the EU would show
up for a meeting where the Burmese regime attends (an EU-ASEM
Summit is scheduled for Hanoi in October, with lower level
meetings beginning under the Dutch presidency in July). An
Irish envoy (John Campbell) has been touring the region, but
reportedly heard little flexibility from ASEAN countries.
The EU FMs will likely confirm the EU's position that Rangoon
should release Aung San Suu Kyi, allow greater political
participation of her party, and improve the procedures for
the National Conference. At British request, the GAERC is
also set to discuss the current situation in Nepal.

TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS
--------------


13. (C/NF) Based on the principle, according to our Irish
contact, that "if we have mentioned all these other places in
the world, someone might ask us why we did not mention the
U.S." the EU Summit's Conclusions will likely include a
"bland" paragraph on transatlantic relations, that would do
little more than note the EU looked forward to the US-EU
Summit the following week. (COMMENT: As ever with EU
Conclusions, the fact that a topic is simply introduced
leaves open the possibility that one Member State or another
will try to introduce additional language, but we wouldn't
expect any such ideas to gain consensus. END COMMENT.)

BALKANS
--------------


14. (C) Beyond the discussion (see para 9) on Croatia's EU
application, the Balkans may not receive any ministerial
level discussion. GAERC Conclusions are likely, however,
that will note Solana's recent visit to KOSOVO, and perhaps
the resignation of UNMIK SRSG Holkeri, as well as the
previous weekend's presidential elections in Serbia.

OTHER TOPICS
--------------


15. (SBU) The meetings will also include standard "end of
term reviews" of EU action on conflict prevention;
implementation of the European Security Strategy in the four
chosen areas (counter terrorism, Bosnia, "effective
multilateralism" and the Middle East); and progress on the
EU's Lisbon agenda for economic reform. Finally, the EU
Summit should establish a calendar for reaching agreement on
the EU's 2007-2013 "financial perspective" or budget
envelope. This is set to become the EU's next big internal
debate.

SCHNABEL