EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: RESHUFFLING OF PARTY GROUPS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002360

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: RESHUFFLING OF PARTY GROUPS?

REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1090

B. B) BRUSSELS 1094

C. C) BRUSSELS 1736

D. D) BRUSSELS 2107

E. E) BRUSSELS 2196

Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Since the European Parliament (EP) "party
groups" are coalitions of member-state parties, their
membership is somewhat fluid; some realignment is likely to
result from the June 10-13 European elections. Despite
persistent rumors, the probable departure of some national
parties from the Christian Democrats and Conservatives group
(EPP-ED) is unlikely to threaten the EPP-ED's plurality. The
coalition of Socialists and Social Democrats (PES) will
likely hold together and remain the second largest EP group.
The Liberal Democrats (ELDR) may increase their clout if they
succeed in forming a new centrist group. An expected poor
showing in the elections may move the Greens to try to join
another party group. In these complex Europe-wide elections,
only one result is certain: the EP's new balance of political
forces will remain a mixed bag for the U.S. -- it will be up
to us to find effective ways to engage the EP on the
important issues. END SUMMARY.

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SERIES OF PRE-ELECTION REPORTS
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2. (U) This is the final message of a series of reports on
the European elections. Ref A provides general background on
the European Parliament (EP) and the European elections; ref
B is a broad analysis of expected campaign issues and
election outcomes; ref C analyzes the possible impact of MEPs
from the 10 new EU member states; ref D discusses the role of
U.S.-EU relations in the elections campaign; and ref E
describes key MEPs who have good re-election prospects.

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EPP-ED: WILL DIVERSE PARTIES STAY TOGETHER?
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3. (C) David Fieldsend, an expert NGO lobbyist at the EP,
succinctly summed up the ever-present possibility of party
realignment: "the EP may have only 8 party groups, but those
groups are made up of over 100 parties." According to
Fieldsend and other interlocutors, the center-right EPP-ED
could change in two major ways: it could lose centrists (see
para 5),or the euroskeptics (especially the UK
Conservatives) could leave and form a separate group. Which
party group some of the new-member-state parties will join
also remains uncertain. In the EPP-ED's case, German
Christian Democrats (especially the Bavarian CSU) might
oppose inclusion of the Czech Civic Democratic Party (ODS) in
the EPP-ED because of its opposition to the revocation of the
post-war Benes decrees, under which Sudeten Germans were
expelled after WWII from what is now Czech territory.


4. (C) Despite the likelihood of some change in membership,
though, it appears that the pragmatic desire to remain the
EP's largest party group will carry the day. Klaus Welle, a
long-time top adviser of EPP-ED Chairman Hans-Gert
Poettering, told us that Poettering's "big tent" strategy
would take precedence over ideological purity. So far, this
has been confirmed by events. Earlier this year, amidst
rumors of a possible split between the pro-EU-integration
Christian Democrats and the euroskeptic UK Tories, Poettering
and UK Tory leader Michael Howard negotiated a deal keeping
the Tories in the EPP-ED. On March 31, EPP-ED members
approved the bargain by a large majority. How tough the
EPP-ED's post-election negotiating strategy will be with
euroskeptic or center-left parties will thus depend on
whether the EPP-ED comes out of the elections with a large
plurality.

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NEW FEDERALIST "CENTER" PARTY?
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5. (C) ELDR leader Graham Watson, European Commission
President Romano Prodi, and French Union for French Democracy
(UDF) leader Francois Bayrou have announced the possible
formation, after the June elections, of a new centrist,
"EU-federalist" EP party group. The group would aim to
include the ELDR, members of the French UDF, Prodi's Italian
center-left Marguerita Party, and several regional parties.
Although some of the pronouncements of the players involved
give the impression of a done deal, our interlocutors differ
on how solid the agreement actually is. Welle told us, for
example, that Bayrou, a "tough negotiator," was demanding
that the word "liberal" not be included in the party name,
something hard for ELDR members to accept. Also, the Prodi
party, made up of Italian former Liberals, Socialists and
Christian Democrats, may also find it difficult to unite
under the "liberal" label. Summing it up, ELDR MEP Cecilia
Malmstroem cautioned that "nothing is certain" until after
the elections.
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WHITHER THE GREENS?
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6. (C) Because virtually no Greens candidates will be elected
from the new member states -- several reports forecast a
single Latvian aspirant will be the only one -- the Greens
may end up in fifth place behind the far-left EUN/NGL (even
though polls predict that the EUN/NGL will also lose seats).
Malmstroem went so far as to speculate that the realist wing
of the Greens might be forced to seek a coalition with the
ELDR. Greens MEP Joost Lagendijk (strictly protect) also
told us that the Greens, in the event of a poor showing in
the elections, might make overtures to either the PES or the
ELDR.

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FAR RIGHT BEARS WATCHING
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7. (C) Among the small party groups, the far right bears
watching. During the current term far-right parties such as
the French National Front, the Belgian Vlaams Blok and the
Austrian Freedom Party were non-aligned. If they succeed in
working together and are strengthened by allies from the new
member states, they may form their own party group (which by
EP rules must include MEPs from at least 5 member states) and
thus become participants in the EP's committee and leadership
structure.

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COMMENT: EP TO REMAIN A MIXED BAG
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8. (C) Assuming the British Conservatives stay in the EPP-ED
and it keeps its plurality, the biggest change in the
party-group balance would probably result from the formation
of an ELDR/centrist group. In that case, the additional
seats for the centrists/liberals and the probable losses of
the Greens and the EUN/NGL would combine to enhance the ELDR
successor's weight as a kingmaker between the EPP-ED and PES.
If this new group does come into being, we expect the
addition of the Prodi party and others to exacerbate the
ELDR's tendency to vote against U.S. interests. In both
legislation and "sense of Congress" resolutions, an ELDR
successor would form frequent majorities with the PES and the
far left in opposition to U.S. policy on issues such as Iraq,
data privacy, climate change, Guantanamo, and the ICC. One
additional question mark is whether new member state parties
will noticeably change the dynamics within EP party groups,
rendering them more diverse and perhaps more open to U.S.
input (ref C). Regardless of the elections' outcome, one
result is certain: the EP will remain a mixed bag from the
U.S. perspective. It will be up to us to find effective ways
to influence party groups and individual MEPs on each of the
important issues. END COMMENT.

SCHNABEL