EU FM TALKS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT JUNE TARGET

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002181

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU FM TALKS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT JUNE TARGET
FOR CONSTITUTIONAL TREATY

REF: DUBLIN 737

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) EU Foreign Ministers in the May 17-18
session of the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) -
the first since the collapse of the December 2003
Summit - made little progress on the draft EU
Constitutional Treaty. Irish FM/IGC chair Cowen
nevertheless remained confident the Treaty will be
agreed at the June 17-18 European Council. But
several FMs, including UK Foreign Secretary Straw,
Belgian FM Michel and Polish FM Cimoszewicz, gave
gloomier predictions. Cimoszewicz complained that
nobody was prepared to listen to his proposals for
resolving the key dispute over voting rights in the
Council ("If it goes on like that, I would not bet
on an agreement"). IGC negotiations will continue
on May 24. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) Cowen cited progress on "a number of
issues," but only pointed to a few. One was
apparent agreement on a proposal for teams of three
countries to share duties over 18 months as chairs
of ministerial level Councils (other than the
External Relations and ECOFIN Councils, which would
have longer term chairs). COMMENT: Although one of
the Constitutional Treaty's purported aims is to
make the EU easier to understand, this formula
strikes us as no simplification of EU structures.
END COMMENT.

SCOPE OF QUALIFIED MAJORITY VOTE: DIFFERENCES REMAIN
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3. (SBU) As anticipated by the Irish (reftel),
agreeing on the scope of how far to extend qualified
majority voting (QMV) in the Council continues to
pose real problems. Sources involved in the
discussions told us the only additional clarity
after this week's IGC meetings was that QMV would
not be extended to foreign and security policy
(CFSP),where countries such as the UK, Denmark,
Latvia, Slovakia and Malta all spoke out in favor of
retaining a requirement on consensus. For other
areas under debate, the Presidency refrained from
making new proposals at this stage. The UK restated
its "red lines," in particular for retaining the
consensus requirement on taxation and social
security, but also continued concern about judicial
cooperation in criminal matters. Luxembourg and
several new members (Poland, Estonia, Slovakia, and
Malta) backed the UK's call for a continued veto
right on the tax and social security issues.


4. (SBU) While no agreements were reached, FMs did
reportedly discuss in some detail a possible
"emergency brake" procedure that could apply to some
areas. This would allow a member of the Council who
considers that a draft European framework law would
infringe the fundamental principles of its legal
system to request that the piece be referred to the
European Council. The leaders could decide to
request a new proposal from the Commission or go
ahead with the legislative process under QMV.
Supporters of extending QMV to as many areas as
possible (reported to include governments such as
Belgium, Greece, and Spain) argue this might be a
way of introducing QMV in more areas while still
giving due deference to national interests.

COMMISSION SIZE DEBATED
--------------


5. (U) Another lengthy topic of debate was the size
of future Commissions. The Irish tabled "ideas" for
retaining the one Commissioner per country principle
until a given date (such as 2014),after which a new
system would take effect, based on equal rotation.
Belgium, France and Germany were most vocal in
calling for a reduced Commission to allow for its
effective functioning. The most likely option would
be a Commission of two-thirds the number of EU
members, but other possibilities exist. At the
other end of the spectrum, many new Member States as
well as Denmark, Austria and Greece, stuck to the
one Commissioner per country formula. The UK argued
the newly-created EU FM position (who would also sit
on the Commission) should not be counted against a
Member States rotation.

FRANCE CALLS FOR MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
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6. (U) French FM Barnier publicly called on the
Presidency to produce a global compromise package:
"We need a moment of truth. It's time for the
Presidency to take a risk." The call was perceived
as aimed at countering efforts by the UK to broaden
the unanimity rule in order to secure public support
in a prospective referendum. Speaking at his final
press conference, Cowen politely rebuffed Barnier:
"It's not a question of taking risks. It's a
question of having sufficient discussion that will
allow the Presidency to put forward proposals that
will meet with agreement." Cowen said the Irish
would offer a global package when the time was
right. He also announced an extra IGC ministerial
on May 24.

COMMENT
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7. (SBU) This week's negotiations did not make the
hoped-for progress, casting doubts about the
leaders' chances to meet their self-imposed target.
This is not necessarily fatal for the draft
Constitutional Treaty: the IGC's unofficial motto
("Nothing has been agreed until everything has been
agreed") indicates how difficult it can be to assess
what flexibility exists in various Member State
positions. The final litmus test of the Irish
negotiating tactics will come at the June 17-18
Summit. But with the Euro-elections just a few days
earlier, the stated intention of many countries to
consider any concession on the institutions only as
a part of a final overall package, the added
pessimism that even a deal agreed in the IGC might
not survive the ratification process in all 25
Member States, and the continued uncertainty over
the domestic political situation in Poland are all
factors that complicate the betting and the search
for a Constitution deal.

SCHNABEL