Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRUSSELS2107
2004-05-14 16:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND U.S.-EU RELATIONS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER TU EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002107 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TU EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND U.S.-EU RELATIONS

REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1090


B. B) BRUSSELS 1094

C. C) BRUSSELS 1736

D. D) LISBON 481

E. E) MUNICH 159

F. F) BRUSSELS 2061

Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002107

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TU EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND U.S.-EU RELATIONS

REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1090


B. B) BRUSSELS 1094

C. C) BRUSSELS 1736

D. D) LISBON 481

E. E) MUNICH 159

F. F) BRUSSELS 2061

Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Although most voters in the June 10-13
European elections will focus mainly on bread-and-butter
themes such as employment, health care and the like,
transatlantic issues will also attract attention. Brussels
observers expect Iraq to feature more prominently in EU
member states whose governments supported U.S. military
intervention. Other war-on-terrorism issues, such as
Passenger Name Record (PNR) and Guantanamo, are also expected
to resonate with some voters. Some candidates have already
indicated they will also address a more fundamental question:
is Europe America's equal partner or a follower? Another
issue of key interest to the U.S. -- Turkish EU accession --
will play a major role in campaigns in some member states,
such as Germany and France. With tensions on Iraq and
perceptions of U.S. unilateralism running high throughout
Europe, U.S. Embassies in member states will face a constant
challenge in getting the public to look at positive
achievements in transatlantic relations in addition to the
obvious U.S.-EU differences. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Series Of Pre-Election Reports
--------------


2. (U) This is the fourth in a series of reports on the June
10-13 European elections. Ref A provides general background
on the European Parliament (EP) and the European elections;
ref B is a broad analysis of expected campaign issues and
election outcomes; and ref C analyzes the possible impact on
the EP of newcomers from the 10 new EU member states.
Subsequent telegrams will examine the reelection prospects of
key parliamentarians (MEPs),and possible post-election
realignment of EP party groups.

--------------
Iraq: Problem for Some U.S. Supporters
--------------


3. (C) Local Brussels commentators expect Iraq to loom large

in the political campaigning for the European Parliament.
Center for European Policy Studies scholar Ben Crum told us
that campaign debate about Iraq would be most important in
the EU member states whose governments supported the U.S.
military intervention despite opposition among voters (see
also ref D). Latvian EP observer Boriss Cilevics of the
Party of European Socialists (PES) agreed, opining that Iraq
would cause difficulties for pro-U.S. candidates in some of
the new member states whose governments supported the U.S.,
mentioning specifically the Baltic states and Poland. EP
observer Toomas Ilves (PES, Estonia) echoed those sentiments,
claiming somewhat bitterly that he had "bought all the
arguments" on Iraq only to find now that the U.S. had "run
roughshod" over him during the past year.


4. (C) Our interlocutors tell us that in Germany, Iraq may
spell trouble for the Christian Democratic opposition
(CDU/CSU) that supported the U.S. effort. Klaus Welle, EP
Director-General of Internal EU Policies and an active CDU
official, said the CDU would try to avoid the Iraq issue. As
Welle explained, talking about Iraq "can only get us into
trouble." German Chancellor Schroeder's Social Democratic
Party (SPD) apparently agrees: an SPD poster for the EP
campaign carries a slogan giving the SPD credit for helping
make Europe a "Power for Peace." An SPD campaign website,
www.europakampa.de, names "strengthening Europe as a power
for peace" as the first of eight reasons to vote SPD, adding,
"if the CDU had had its way, there would be German soldiers
in Iraq today." MEP and EP Vice President Ingo Friedrich, of
the Christian Social Union (CSU),the CDU's Bavarian sister
party, told us that transatlantic relations come up "first
thing" at almost all of the events he attends with voters.
His voters' interest, he implied, has been magnified several
times over by the German-American discord over Iraq.


5. (C) Despite the above, it bears repeating that much will
vary depending on the candidate and the country. EP observer
Magda Kosa Kovacs (PES, Hungary) opined, for example, that
Iraq would not be a huge campaign issue in Hungary because
all major parties had agreed on military intervention.
Similarly, and not surprisingly, UK Conservative MEP Geoffrey
Van Orden told us the Tories would not criticize UK
involvement in Iraq, but rather highlight PM Tony Blair's
lack of openness and trustworthiness in managing UK Iraq
policy. Swedish MEP Cecilia Malmstrom of the European
Liberal Democrats affirmed that Iraq would be a campaign
issue in the EU, but said that MEPs whose governments had
been against the war would have difficulty leveraging Iraq
for vote gains -- especially in France and Germany, she said,
MEPs of the governing parties were likely to lose votes in
the European elections for domestic reasons.
--------------
Europe as Equal of U.S.
--------------


6. (C) It has become a catchphrase among EU elites in
Brussels -- on both sides of the political spectrum -- that
the transatlantic relationship, in order to thrive, must be a
partnership between equals. Some candidates plan to make
that idea a major component of their foreign-policy stance
during their campaign. German Socialist MEP Helmut Kuhne
(SPD) told us that a central issue of his campaign will be a
"question to Europe": does the EU have the political will to
be an equal partner of the U.S. rather than a follower? On
May 7, as part of the kickoff to their campaigns, Dutch
Greens MEP Joost Lagendijk and his compatriot Jan Marinus
Wiersma (PES) presented their book, "After Mars Comes Venus:
A European Answer to Bush." This book deals with the same
question that Kuhne asks of Europe, urging the EU to realize
its potential to become a "civil superpower." As Lagendijk
told us, their objective is not to compete with the U.S., but
to make the EU its equal partner and "critical counterpart."
Despite assurances to the contrary, the "equal partner"
slogan often implies the need for Europe to counteract an
allegedly unilateral and arrogant U.S.

--------------
War on Terrorism/U.S. Unilateralism
--------------


7. (C) Some of our interlocutors, such as Swedish MEP
Malmstrom, tell us that some narrower U.S.-EU issues will
also be part of EP campaigns. Two examples our interlocutors
mention are the PNR agreement (International Agreement on
Transfers of EU Passenger Name Records to the U.S. -- see ref
F) and Guantanamo. In both areas, many MEPs have been in
vocal opposition to U.S. policy on human rights grounds --
the right to personal data protection (PNR) and the right to
a fair trial (Guantanamo). Voters who notice will likely
place their views within the larger context -- the war in
Iraq, the fight against terrorism and their perception of
U.S. unilateralism. Brussels contacts tell us the Guantanamo
issue will resonate much more strongly since the Abu Ghraib
prisoner abuse scandal.

--------------
Turkish EU Accession: An Issue with Momentum
--------------


8. (C) The issue of Turkish EU accession could be
particularly prominent in Germany (where, for example, the
Bavarian CSU has made opposition to Turkish EU membership its
central campaign theme; see ref E). But it is expected to
play a role in other countries as well -- including in
France, Austria and Italy where we are told center-right and
conservative parties also intend to campaign against Turkish
membership. Both Klaus Welle of the CDU and PES MEP Erika
Mann (SPD) told us the question of Turkish EU membership
comes up at virtually every grassroots meeting with voters
that they attend. Welle said German voters are worried about
the implications of Turkish EU membership not only for the
cohesiveness of the EU, but mainly for the identity of Europe
as a historically Christian culture. Although interest in
the Turkish issue will certainly be mixed and, again, vary
from country to country and candidate to candidate, its
possible association in voters' minds with unease about
immigration, EU enlargement, a clash of cultures with
Muslims, and the Cyprus problem provides the Turkey issue
with noticeable staying power and high emotional content.

--------------
COMMENT: TRANSATLANTIC FOCUS LARGELY NEGATIVE
--------------


9. (C) According to most of our interlocutors and judging
from party manifestos, polls and press, the deciding issues
for most voters will be their domestic government's
performance on jobs, health care and other bread-and-butter
issues. With the focus on what affects voters' everyday
lives, even the major "European" issues of the season, such
as the EU constitution or the future of the Stability and
Growth Pact, are not expected to be central in this European
elections campaign. Despite the domestic focus, the question
of relations with the U.S. will be the single most important
foreign-policy issue for most Europeans. With U.S.-EU
differences over Iraq, and a growing emphasis on the EU as
"an equal partner," and thus implicitly a counterweight of
the United States, European voters may focus more on U.S.-EU
tensions than on positive examples of transatlantic
cooperation. Finally, the Abu Ghraib scandal will increase
attention to the U.S. in a manner that is certain to
exacerbate ill will. In this campaign environment until the
elections at the end of June, U.S. Embassies in member states
will face a constant challenge in getting the public to look
at positive elements in transatlantic relations in addition
to the obvious U.S.-EU differences. END COMMENT.


10. (C) See USEU website on classified State Intranet at
http://useu.brussels.state.gov

FOSTER