COMMISSION'S POSITIVE "AVIS" ON CROATIA'S EU

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001783

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID NL KAWC HR ICTY EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: COMMISSION'S POSITIVE "AVIS" ON CROATIA'S EU
MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION

REF: A. STATE 84033


B. USEU TODAY 4/20/2004

C. THE HAGUE 975

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 B/D

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In issuing its positive recommendation April 20 for
opening of accession negotiations with Croatia, the
Commission has tried to stress that Croatian cooperation with
ICTY "must continue" and the Croatia must "take all
necessary steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located
and transferred to ICTY." EU officials also note that
further progress reports from ICTY on Croatia will be due in
May and June. The Irish Presidency has told fellow member
states it does not plan to put the issue on a GAERC agenda
until June 14. End Summary.


2. (U) On April 20, the European Commission issued a
positive opinion ("Avis") on Croatia's application to begin
membership negotiations with the EU, recommending to the
Council that "negotiations for accession to the EU should be
opened with Croatia." The avis does not comment on when such
negotiations could or should begin. As forecast in REF B,
one key conclusion of the Commission's "avis" was to note
that "in April 2004, the ICTY Prosecutor stated that Croatia
is now cooperating fully with ICTY. Croatia needs to
maintain full cooperation and take all necessary steps to
ensure that the remaining indictee (Ante Gotovina) is located
and transferred to ICTY."


3. (C) The EU's Western Balkans Working Group (COWEB) on
April 22 was given a brief presentation from the Commission
on its avis. There was no debate in COWEB on the avis. The
Irish Presidency chair simply noted it would not prejudge the
eventual decision by the Council on the Commission's
recommendation. Commissioner Patten will likely present the
avis to EU FMs at their April 26 meeting (GAERC) in
Luxembourg, but the Irish did not intend to have any
discussion of the issue at either the April or May GAERCs.
Croatia would be on the agenda only of the June 14 GAERC.
(NOTE: Discussion of the issue at lower levels, beginning
with COWEB, would have to begin some weeks before that. End
Note.) Expectations are that the June 17-18 European Council
will take a decision on whether to begin Croatia's
negotiation, but the Irish are not absolutely committed to
that calendar.


4. (S) We have spoken with COWEB representatives and
Commissioner Patten's staff about the avis. They have all
noted the EU shares our surprise (REF A) at the report from
ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte that Croatia was "now fully
cooperating." Both the Dutch COWEB rep (protect) and Patten
advisor Patrick Rock were keen to stress that the EU believes
"Croatia is not off the hook yet." EU pressure had helped
produce the improved Croatian cooperation with ICTY cited in
Del Ponte's letter, but the EU has stressed Croatia "must
continue its cooperation." The EU will pay close attention
to further reports from ICTY that will include coverage of
Croatia's behavior. (According to Rock these include a May 7
report by the ICTY President -- not Del Ponte -- to the
Council of Europe, a May 31 written report from Del Ponte to
the UNSC, and a June 15 -- immediately preceding the EU's
decision -- oral report by Del Ponte to the UNSC.) Our Dutch
contact noted that EU monitoring of Croatian cooperation with
ICTY would still continue even after negotiations might
begin, with a negative report at any time potentially
derailing Croatia's progress.


5. (S) In response to REF A points arguing Del Ponte's
assessment was insufficient, Rock said that all the
Commission knew about Del Ponte's justifications for her view
was what she put in her letter. He suggested the USG push
Del Ponte harder to "spell out in terms" the basis for her
change of position and lay out any evidence we might have
indicating the Croatians are providing less than full
cooperation. "But that is the kind of conversation the
Commission can't have with her," Rock added, since the
Commission does not have access to any intelligence on the
issue. Our Dutch contact (protect) said that in his
conversation with ICTY Special political Advisor Ruch, he had
been given much the same report on ICTY-GoC interaction as
reported REF C, with the additional note that the Office of
the Prosecutor was now pushing the GoC on implementation of
an "action plan" that has a "timeline of 2 to 3 months." Our
contact observed that timeline would appear to extend beyond
the EU's own decision-making calendar. He noted that the
Dutch "would love to believe Del Ponte has assurances of
results" in the coming weeks, but are not at all confident
that is the case.


6. (C) COMMENT: The key now will be to leverage the
Commission's positive avis as best we can with Croatia. Our
sense is that the EU is primed to respond if Del Ponte should
reverse or revise her assessment of Croatian cooperation over
the course of the next two months. While the Commission avis
notes that "additional efforts" will be needed by Croatia in
a variety of policy areas (notably minority rights, refugee
returns and judicial reform),the key message to the GoC
needs to be that the path is clear to opening EU membership
negotiations: the only thing that could trip them up between
now and June would be if they fail to "take all necessary
steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located and
transferred to ICTY." End Comment.

SCHNABEL