EU-15 UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED AT 8.0 PERCENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001431

SIPDIS

DOL FOR BLS AND ILAB
TREASURY FOR IMI
STATE FOR DRL/IL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ELAB EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU-15 UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED AT 8.0 PERCENT


1. SUMMARY. Aggregate unemployment in the EU-15
was 8.0 percent in February 2004. The rate was
unchanged compared to the seven previous months and
the February 2003 rate. The ten acceding countries
showed a 14.2 percent average unemployment rate for
February 2004, also unchanged for the past five
months. END SUMMARY.


2. With seasonal adjustment and compensation for
differences in national statistical methods, the EU-
15 unemployment rate stood at 8.0 percent in
February 2004, according to estimates released by
the Commission's Statistical Office (EUROSTAT) on
April 1. The aggregate rate was unchanged compared
to the seven previous months and the corresponding
month of 2003.


3. The unemployment rate for the euro zone (the
twelve EU countries participating in the euro) was
also stable at 8.8 percent in February 2004, again
unchanged since July 2003 and showing a marginal
increase from 8.7 percent in February 2003.


4. The lowest rates among the EU-15 (February 2004
rates unless otherwise indicated) were recorded in
Luxembourg (4.0 percent),Austria (4.4 percent),
Ireland (4.5 percent) and the Netherlands (4.5
percent, January 2004). Spain (11.2 percent) still
showed the highest unemployment rate among the EU-

15.


5. EUROSTAT noted that among the EU Member States
that contributed data for at least one month in the
period December 2003 - February 2004, nine showed an
increase in their unemployment rate over the past
twelve months, four a decrease and one recorded no
change. The most significant increases in
unemployment rates were recorded in the Netherlands
(from 3.2 percent in January 2003 to 4.5 percent in
January 2004),Sweden (from 5.1 percent in February
2003 to 6.4 percent in February 2004),Denmark (from
5.1 percent in January 2003 to 6.1 percent in
January 2004),and Luxembourg (from 3.3 percent in
February 2003 to 4.0 percent in February 2004). By
contrast, Italy's rate decreased from 8.9 percent in
January 2003 to 8.5 percent in January 2004, the
UK's decreased from 4.9 percent in December 2002 to
4.8 percent in December 2003, Spain's rate decreased
from 11.4 percent in February 2003 to 11.2 percent
in February 2004, and Finland's from 9.0 percent in
February 2003 to 8.9 percent in February 2004.
Ireland's rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent in a
February-to-February comparison.


6. EUROSTAT estimated male unemployment for the EU-
15 to have increased from 7.2 percent in February
2003 to 7.3 percent in February 2004 (from 7.7
percent to 7.8 percent for the euro zone). The
female rate over the same period remained the same
(8.9 percent) for the EU-15 and increased from 10.1
percent to 10.2 percent for the euro zone.


7. Unemployment rates among young people under 25
ranged from 7.2 percent in Austria (February 2004)
to 27.1 percent in Italy (January 2004). The rate
for this age group in February 2004 was estimated at
15.5 percent for the EU-15 and 16.8 percent for the
euro zone, compared to 15.6 percent (thus down 0.1
percentage point) and 16.8 percent (unchanged)
respectively in February 2003.


8. EUROSTAT estimated that 14.2 million were
unemployed in the EU-15 in February 2004 (12.4
million in the euro zone). Following is the
breakdown of unemployment rates for the individual
EU Member States:

(Seasonally-adjusted)

FEB 2004 JAN 2004 CHANGE

Belgium 8.5 8.4 plus 0.1
Denmark N/A 6.1
Germany 9.3 9.2 plus 0.1
Greece N/A N/A
Spain 11.2 11.2
France 9.4 9.5 minus 0.1
Ireland 4.5 4.5
Italy N/A 8.5
Luxembourg 4.0 3.9 plus 0.1
Netherlands N/A 4.5
Austria 4.4 4.5 minus 0.1
Portugal 6.8 6.8
Finland 8.9 8.9
Sweden 6.4 6.0 plus 0.4
UK N/A N/A


9. While no combined figures are offered (yet) for
the EU-25, EUROSTAT publishes monthly rates for the
ten "acceding countries" expected to join the EU on
May 1, 2004. The average rate for the "ten" was
14.2 percent in February 2004, unchanged for the
past six months and down from 14.4 percent in
February 2003. The ten's rate remains heavily
influenced by the situation of the labor market in
Poland (19.1 percent unemployment) and Slovakia
(16.7 percent). The country-by-country breakout was
as follows:

FEBR 2004 JAN 2004 CHANGE

Czech republic 8.2 8.2
Estonia 9.4 9.5 minus 0.1
Cyprus 4.8 4.8
Latvia 10.6 10.5 plus 0.1
Lithuania 11.6 11.7 minus 0.1
Hungary 5.9 5.9
Malta N/A 8.8
Poland 19.1 19.1
Slovenia 6.4 6.4
Slovakia 16.7 16.6 plus 0.1


10. NOTES. The monthly rates and numbers of
unemployed are estimated and based on data from the
annual EU labor force survey. The estimated rates
may differ from national unemployment rates due to
differences in methods and definitions of
unemployment. Unemployed people according to ILO
criteria are those aged 15 and over who:

-- Are without work;

-- Are available to start work within the next two
weeks; and

-- Have actively sought employment at some time
during the previous four weeks.

SCHNABEL