SPURRING SADC ENGAGEMENT ON ZIMBABWE: EC RESPONSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001177

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USAID FOR D/AA WOODS AND DIRECTOR
AFR/SA FLEURET; DCHA/OFDA FOR HALDRAST-SANCHEZ; DCHA/FFP
FOR LANDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF EAID ZI EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: SPURRING SADC ENGAGEMENT ON ZIMBABWE: EC RESPONSE

REF: STATE 53747

Classified By: PRMOFF MARC MEZNAR. REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. The European Commission (EC) is skeptical
that pressure
through SADC or any other channel can reverse the
deteriorating situation in
Zimbabwe. The members of SADC have disparate agendas and
circumstances that
hinder them from coming together forcefully on Zimbabwe.
Although official
development assistance to Zimbabwe has been frozen, the EC
has stepped up its
humanitarian efforts to respond to the food, health and
education needs of
the Zimbabwean people. End Summary.


2. (C) On 3/18, PRMOff delivered reftel talking points to DG
DEV Zimbabwe Desk
officer Joan Pijuan regarding SADC engagement to address the
deteriorating
humanitarian and political situation in Zimbabwe. As noted
during DAS Pamela
Bridgewater's discussions about Zimbabwe with senior EU
officials on 3/10
(septel),the EC is skeptical that any leverage on the GoZ
will be effective.
Pijuan said that the EU had clear benchmarks with regard to
democracy and
governance issues, but did not want to seem to be imposing
them from the
outside. Ideally, he felt that SADC, for its own sake,
should convey to Mugabe
the importance of reform. However, Pijuan thought it was
unlikely this would
happen because many of Zimbabwe's neighbors have no real
incentive to pressure
Mugabe. Pijuan stated that the key player, South Africa, has
its own agenda
and will only give a token push when necessary to satisfy
western concerns.
Namibia shares the land reform issues as Zimbabwe and cannot
be forward
leaning. Other neighboring states are worse off economically,
so the situation
in Zimbabwe does not seem dire by comparison. In fact,
Pijuan said that some
neighbors benefited economically from the trouble in Zimbabwe
and might prefer
to continue reaping advantages from these problems. Even the
spillover of
migrant laborers was welcomed, to a degree, as professional
and educated classes
were among those leaving Zimbabwe.


3. (C) Pijuan concluded that Mugabe, far from feeling
isolated, actually has
become more arrogant and disdainful of international
pressure. Pijuan signaled
two worrying developments vis-a-vis the international
community: the
withdrawal of Zimbabwe's request for UNDP to assist with
elections and the
decision to stop accepting food aid from WFP. According to
Pijuan, Mugabe will
not show any pretense of conducting "fair and free"
elections. He said the
government has food stocks available which it will freely
distribute in the
run-up to the election for political gain. Pijuan concluded
his analysis by
saying that "perhaps doing nothing is the best plan. The
international
community should monitor and be ready, but should not push
too much. Let
Zimbabwe find its own way."


4. (SBU) Pijuan gave an overview of current EC assistance to
Zimbabwe. He
noted that despite the freezing of 9th European Development
Fund (EDF),the EC
has actually reinforced its office in Harare since other
funding sources are
being utilized to assist vulnerable people. Approximately 89
million euros
will be available this year, as follows:
-- 25 million euros in remaining funds from the 6th through
8th EDFs
administered by DG DEV: All development assistance in the
pipeline has been
reprogrammed to meet the current humanitarian needs, mainly
in the areas of
health and education. Although the assistance programs had
been mainly in
these same sectors, they are now being applied to meet the
direct needs of the
population (such as purchasing medicine) instead of
supporting the
institutional structures.
-- 19 million euros from envelope B of the 9th EDF. The B
envelope can be used
for unforeseen emergencies and does not require a signed
agreement with the GoZ
(as does the A envelope, which consists of 127 million euros
in frozen funds).
-- 25 million euros for humanitarian work: ECHO aims to meet
pockets of hunger
through school feeding, nutritional surveillance,
agricultural rehabilitation,
water and sanitation, therapeutic feeding and logistical
support for
distribution. An initial funding decision for 15 million
euros will be
forthcoming (with funds likely to go to UNICEF, WFP, UNDP,
ICRC and WHO).
ECHO expects that later in the year additional funds will be
made available
to match their 2003 funding level of 25 million euros.
-- 20 million euros for food aid administered by EuropeAid:
These funds are
being used to meet food needs through May 2004. (Note. This
amount is half the
total allocated in 2003. Of the combined 2003-2004 amount,
52 million euros will
be channeled through WFP and the remaining 8 million euros
through NGOs. End
Note.)

FOSTER