HZDS AND MECIAR: CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT HIM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000761

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: HZDS AND MECIAR: CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT HIM?


Classified By: CDA Scott N. Thayer for reason 1.4(b).


1. (C) Summary. When former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar
lost the presidential election in April, internal criticism
by other members of his Movement for a Democratic Slovakia
(HZDS--see footnote) came out into the open. Analysts and
journalists began to speculate about whether party leaders
would challenge Meciar,s top position. In meetings with
poloffs, HZDS MPs Sergej Kozlik and Eduard Kolesar expressed
different opinions about the direction of the party, but they
both affirmed its future lies with Meciar. Rumors abound that
the minority government, particularly the SDKU party, wishes
to cooperate more closely with HZDS leaders other than
Meciar. Nonetheless, HZDS representatives said emerging new
leaders are not popular enough to replace him. End summary.

Meciar Maintains Party Support
--------------


2. (U) After former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar lost the
presidential election in April, he refused to shake hands
with winner Ivan Gasparovic, the speaker of parliament during
his last government. That spurred negative statements from
within HZDS about Meciar's behavior and ability to lead the
party after a second unsuccessful bid at the presidency.
Some analysts and journalists speculated that other party
leaders would challenge Meciar,s position as chairman, but
HZDS quickly labeled press stories about problems within the
party as exaggerated.


3. (C) Sergej Kozlik, a veteran HZDS MP and former Deputy
Prime Minister, denied that Meciar had lost the support of
the party hierarchy in Bratislava or in the regions. He told
poloffs that a change in leadership was impossible before the
next elections simply because voters would not accept a HZDS
ticket without Meciar as the top candidate. Kozlik added
that Meciar,s staunch supporters expected such antics (as
the handshake refusal) from him. Though a Meciar loyalist,
Kozlik stated that Gasparovic,s win was the best outcome for
the country, claiming Meciar,s presidency would have been
&disruptive.8 He expressed hope that HZDS participation in
the European Parliament would help rehabilitate Meciar,s
reputation and the image of the party, without the need to
replace Meciar.

New Leaders in HZDS Lack Appeal
--------------


4. (SBU) Over the past two years, HZDS split twice over the
direction of the party and Meciar,s leadership style. After
these defections, the politicians surrounding Meciar were
less experienced and less appealing to voters. At the last
party congress in June 2003, party Vice-Chairman for Foreign
Relations and current Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Viliam
Veteska was elected leader of the party caucus. The congress
elected Tibor Mikus the &shadow8 prime minister. Several
MPs from coalition parties have told us that both are gaining
more influence within the party and maintain good working
relationships with coalition parties.


5. (C) Even though he is one of the more visible HZDS
politicians, Veteska ranks low in polls surveying popularity
and credibility. Kozlik stated that Veteska does not have
the natural charisma to lead HZDS. He added that Tibor
Mikus, who openly criticized Meciar after the election,
displays more leadership ability and has stronger potential
to become Meciar,s rival. As the &shadow8 prime minister,
he reads government reports daily, while Meciar appears
disinterested in current government and parliamentary
activities. This year the Speaker of the Parliament withheld
a portion of Meciar,s annual salary due to poor attendance.
However, Kozlik stated that at this time no politician could
garner the needed support to successfully campaign against
Meciar.

You Can,t Live With Him, You Can,t Without Him
-------------- -


6. (C) According to Olga Gyarfasova, Senior Research Fellow
of the Institute for Public Affairs, HZDS is in a dilemma.
The party is irrevocably linked to Meciar's populist appeal
and his past scandals. Although HZDS seems to be steering
away from nationalistic politics, Gyarfasova said, without
Meciar HZDS would not win the five percent of the vote needed
to enter parliament. She commented that HZDS has never
established a solid doctrine or platform to keep or attract
voters without Meciar.

Future of the Party Lies with Meciar
--------------


7. (C) Political analysts such as the daily SME's Marian
Lesko and Christian Democratic Movement's (KDH) Michal
Dyttert have told us PM Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and
Christian Union (SDKU) is pursuing closer cooperation with

HZDS leaders other than Meciar, with the ultimate goal of a
SDKU-HZDS coalition after 2006 parliamentary elections.
However, SDKU central office director Kamil Homola insisted a
SDKU alliance with Meciar was out-of-the-question, and he did
not foresee Meciar ceding control of his party. He also
pointed out different core values, such as SDKU's strident
pro-American stance versus HZDS's isolationist, nationalist
tradition. Pavol Haulik of the MVK polling agency told
emboffs that SDKU leaders had been leaning toward Meciar in
the second round of presidential elections, but got the clear
message that he is still unacceptable for the majority of
Slovak voters.


8. (C) HZDS MP Eduard Kolesar, a former HZDS youth leader and
first time MP, told poloffs that the future of party still
lies with Meciar, but also includes closer relations with
coalition partners. He mentioned that in Banska Bystrica,
the regional capital of central Slovakia, the Hungarian
Coalition Party (SMK) withdrew from its cooperation agreement
with Robert Fico's Smer ("Direction") party and plans to work
with HZDS in December 2005 regional elections. He added this
was unimaginable five years ago. Kolesar stated that he was
representative of those in HZDS who believed a more cordial
relationship with the coalition was necessary, even if HZDS
lost a section of its electorate. He predicted that HZDS
would continue to lose popularity, but would win between 12
and 15 percent of the vote in 2006 parliamentary elections.


9. (C) Regarding future alliances, Kozlik said &everything
is open8 for discussion. He envisioned HZDS as a centrist
party that could form a government with Robert Fico,s Smer
or with the parties on the right. He explained that a
coalition government with Smer would require a third party,
without which the two leaders, Meciar and Fico, would always
be locked in discord. On the other hand, Kolesar opposed
entering government with Smer, stating that its leaders do
not play by any rules. For example, Smer most likely
double-crossed President Schuster by pressing for the
referendum for new elections to be called on the same day as
the April presidential election. After Schuster complied,
Smer surprisingly endorsed Gasparovic for president instead.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Since the 2002 parliamentary elections, all attempts
at cooperation between the largest opposition parties HZDS
and Smer have failed, both because of ideological differences
and personality conflicts between Meciar and Fico. HZDS has
voted with the coalition on a number of important domestic
and foreign policy issues, including maintaining a military
presence in Iraq. Party leaders seem to see their chance to
get back into government with the right-of-center parties,
not with Smer. They understand that having Meciar as party
chairman and top candidate is both a liability and an asset.
Certainly Meciar will head the HZDS ticket in 2006; as HZDS
declines in popularity, he is their only hope to deliver
votes in the next regional and national elections. The
question is whether he will then be willing to step aside so
that others can make a deal for a government role.

Footnote: The official name of Meciar's party is now People's
Party - Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (LS-HZDS). The
"LS" was added after the now-extinct off-shoot People's Union
(LU) formed. For simplicity's sake we continue to use the
acronym HZDS.
THAYER


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