FICO PREPARED FOR CRITICISM DURING WASHINGTON VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000490

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR-CONLEY
NSC FOR FRIED

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: FICO PREPARED FOR CRITICISM DURING WASHINGTON VISIT


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for reason 1.4(b).


1. (C) Summary. Robert Fico, the most popular politicaian in
Slovakia, will visit Washington May 17-19. Fico has a major
influence on public opinion and has told the Ambassador on
several occasions that he wants good relations with the U.S.,
but his public statements are often unhelpful. Fico hopes
his visit to Washington will help policy makers get to know
"Slovakia's future Prime Minister." He should hear a tough
message about how the U.S. views the limits of discourse
between friends and allies. End Summary.


2. (C) Robert Fico's Smer ("Direction") party consistently
leads popularity polls with 27-30 percent voter support.
Leading Smer members include businessmen and professionals,
but the party's main support is found among young voters and
less-educated voters. Fico is in a permanent campaign as
leader of the main opposition party to discredit the Dzurinda
government by criticizing foreign policy and domestic
reforms. One Smer MP told us that his party was happy with
many of the current government's economic reforms. He said
the situation Smer will inherit after 2006 elections will
have greatly benefited from all the tough measures. Then he
smiled and added, "But now we're an opposition party so, of
course, we oppose everything." Therefore, it is important to
keep in mind that the "populist" line Fico uses in public
often differs greatly from what Smer MP's and Fico himself
tell us in private.

Foreign Policy
--------------


3. (C) Because Fico's public statements are not always
reflective of what he says privately, and because as an
opposition leader he needs certain political space to
maneuver, we don't take everything he says at face value, or
as indicative of the policy he might adopt if he becomes
prime minister. That said, sometimes he goes too far. For
example, on private TV JOJ on May 8, 2004 Fico said that
&the attack on Iraq was about natural resources and that was
the main reason why force was used in Iraq.8 He also
claimed that PM Dzurinda was lying about Iraq having barrels
full of weapons of mass destruction and links with terrorism.
The Ambassador spoke to him on these remarks, noting that
even in opposition there was a line between what is
acceptable criticism and what is simply spreading lies. The
Ambassador warned Fico that his visit to Washington would not
be a mere exchange of pleasantries, but that he should be
prepared for some constructive criticism about how "friends
of the U.S." behave. Fico has called for a parliamentary
debate on examining the performance of Slovak troops in Iraq
and discussing the possibility of their withdrawal absent a
UN mandate. This debate was originally scheduled for May 12,
but President of Parliament Hrusovsky postponed the
discussion until June.


4. (U) On April 10, when parliament debated the ratification
of NATO accession treaty, Fico stated: 8I do not perceive
any kind of festive atmosphere. There are many reasons for
that. NATO as an organization preferred to adhere to
international law, instead of sanctioning unilateral military
action against Iraq by the United States. In spite of that,
the citizens of Slovakia tend to connect NATO primarily with
that great superpower and with its style of asserting its own
national interests...In our opinion, the assault on Iraq is a
gross violation of international law, which was also espoused
by the Government of Slovakia. The background of the assault
needs to be seen as being motivated by narrow economic
interests. I wish to express my regrets that the GOS did not
even find the courage, although the war in Iraq provided many
opportunities for that, to sharply condemn the killing of
civilians, mostly women and children, as a result of allied
attacks.8


5. (SBU) Fico is generally favorable to America and wants
good relations with the United States, but he does not always
have pro-U.S. instincts. He also gives heavy consideration
to Russian economic opportunities. Fico started studying
English five years ago; before that his only foreign language
was Russian. He knows English is the language of Slovakia's
future, but he also values strong ties to Russia and other
former USSR states.


6. (C) An example was his controversial June 2003 trip to
Belarus. Belarusian state television used the visit for
propaganda, claiming that the country is not isolated. Fico
neither met opposition representatives nor discussed human
rights issues. He later defended the visit by explaining that
he concluded interesting business contracts during his trip.
Fico learned a lesson from the criticism, and vetted his
upcoming trip to Libya with the U.S. before firming plans.

He wants to resume traditional business ties between Slovakia
and Libya.

Domestic Policy
--------------


7. (U) Fico represents the center-left in Slovakia, and as
such publicly opposes all of the Dzurinda government's
economic reforms as too harsh on ordinary people. Smer
endorsed the candidacy of Ivan Gasparovic, who will be
inaugurated as President June 15. Both Gasparovic and Fico
insist they have no longer-term political agreement.


8. (SBU) Fico generally supports greater social benefits for
Slovak citizens, but capitalizes on anti-Roma sentiment by
proposing to limit benefits. In January 2004 he recommended
urgent measures because by 2015 there would be more than 1
million Roma living in Slovakia, out of which 800 thousand
would be dependent on social benefits. In February 2004 Fico
protested against the measures implemented by GOS to help
Roma, saying &The rules have to be clear for Roma: First of
all obligations and then rights. We are very much aware of
who the Roma are who want to do nothing for the state and who
simply ask for social security.8


9. (U) In April 2004 the Confederation of Labor Unions (KOZ),
claiming to have 600 thousand members, announced that it had
made an agreement on cooperation with Fico,s SMER. KOZ
leader Saktor said they will strive to integrate the left of
center political parties and that KOZ would support SMER in
the next parliamentary elections.

Management Style
--------------


10. (C) Many Smer MP's have told us that the reason they were
attracted to join the party is that they knew Fico and had
been personally persuaded to enter politics with him. They
say he is an open person who lets everyone express his/her
ideas before making a decision. Others tell a different tale
of rigid, top-down management. SDKU MP Vavrik, who co-chairs
the defense committee led by SMER MP Kalinak, told us that
before agreeing to anything, Kalinak goes into the hallway to
call Ficoand get his blessing. Kalinak has also privately
expressed surprise to embassy officers when told of certain
Fico public statements.


11. (C) It is no secret among the political class that the
man behind Fico, wealthy businessman Fedor Flasik, develops
the public message and orchestrates the series of press
conferences and media appearances to keep Fico's name in the
headlines. Flasik's strategy is to be outrageous in order to
attract media attention and stay at the top of the polls.
While it has its intended effect with potential voters, the
disconnect between what Fico says publicly and privately have
earned him the reputation of being unreliable, or at least
unpredictable, among possible coalition partners. This is
also considered by many political analysts to be the
explanation for his surprise defeat in the September 2002
parliamentary elections, as doubts about where he really
stood on the issues caused voters to be cautious once they
got into the voting booth.

Themes for Discussions
--------------


12. (C) Fico is articulate and clever, and should be given
the opportunity to present himself. He should also hear the
U.S. point of view along the following lines:

-- We respect the role of an opposition politician, and
believe it is important in a democracy to foster healthy
debate on issues.

-- Nonetheless, there is a line of responsibility that a
friend of the U.S. and NATO ally should not cross.

-- Perpetuating myths such as "the invasion of Iraq was only
for oil" and calling leaders who feared Iraq's WMD capacity
"liars" is crossing that line.

-- It is true that "actions speak," but words matter too. We
register everything you say. Speaking against the U.S. as
part of a populist political platform will damage your
credibility with us. You will note that even at the height
of disagreements with our European friends we -- and they --
do not question motives and principles.

-- Being a true leader doesn't mean just polling voters and
repeating their sentiments. It also means taking a
principled stand and convincing your supporters to go along

with it. This is especially relevant in foreign policy areas.
WEISER


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