Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRATISLAVA299
2004-03-26 16:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR LO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000299 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LO
SUBJECT: GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000299

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LO
SUBJECT: GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. Presidential candidate Ivan Gasparovic may
get a slight boost from the recent endorsement by top-polling
political party Smer. On the other hand, Slovaks are likely
to vote for the person they like best, and party endorsement
will most probably not mean much. The 25-30 percent support
in polls for Smer leader Robert Fico will probably translate
into only a few percentage points of support for Gasparovic.
Although polls have shown rising support for Gasparovic, and
he has overtaken incumbent Rudolf Schuster, he is still in
third place, which will leave him out of the runoff.
Political observers in Slovakia remain certain that the April
17 runoff will be FM Eduard Kukan versus HZDS leader Vladimir
Meciar. End summary.

Smer Supports Gasparovic
--------------


2. (SBU) Smer chairman Robert Fico surprised many on March 15
when he endorsed Ivan Gasparovic for president. Smer
consistently tops the polls with 25 to 30 percent voter
preference. However, support for Fico and Smer does not
necessarily translate to support for Gasparovic, even among
undecided voters.


3. (C) Speculation abounds about Fico's motives. Clearly an
opposition party could not support coalition leader SDKU's
candidate, Eduard Kukan. Many Smer leaders have a visceral
dislike of rival opposition party HZDS's chairman, Vladimir
Meciar. Initially it seemed certain that Smer would support
populist incumbent Rudolf Schuster, especially after he
scheduled the Smer-supported referendum on early
Parliamentary elections on the same day as the presidential
election. The tactical reason for the switch may have been
that Fico felt Schuster, with no political party of his own,
had nothing to deliver in return (in future Parliamentary
elections).

Background on Gasparovic
--------------


4. (SBU) Gasparovic is the chairman of Movement for Democracy
(HZD),which split from HZDS in July 2002 after Meciar did
not include Gasparovic on the HZDS candidate list for that
year's Parliamentary elections. HZD did not reach the
five-percent threshold to have members in Parliament. In a

recent discussion with poloffs, Gasparovic acknowledged that
his chances for making it to the second round of the
presidential election were slim. Gasparovic expects his
candidacy to bring more interested voters to his party,
re-energizing it for the next Parliamentary election.


5. (SBU) Besides Smer, Gasparovic supporters include leaders
of the Jan Slota strand of the Slovak National Party, HZDS
breakaway party People's Union (LU),and Slovak National
Union (SNJ). Factors that may contribute to Gasparovic's
appeal include his once high position in HZDS and Parliament.
He also represents a less-arrogant alternative to Meciar for
those inclined toward nationalist parties and HZDS.
Gasparovic aims to be a clean slate, a "man without
characteristics" attracting various disaffected voters.
Apart from a message espousing social rights and patriotism,
he doesn't have a message. His web page is
www.gasparovic.sk; it's more or less empty, with some photos
that present him as a "nice person."

Not a Saint
--------------


6. (C) There is more to Gasparovic. As one of Meciar's
staunchest supporters for a decade, he is sometimes referred
to as "Meciar Lite." His break with HZDS was over
personality conflicts with Meciar, not policy or principles.
Throughout his tenure as chairman of Parliament, Gasparovic
made sure Meciar's initiatives passed by any means necessary
-- relegating opposition politicians to the environment and
human rights committees. He presided over dividing the
spoils (government offices and properties) among HZDS and its
allies. It is unclear what Gasparovic gained from the
privatization process. Gasparovic staunchly defended Meciar
during the drama when President Michal Kovac's son was
kidnapped.

Comment: A Small Boost
--------------


7. (C) Comment. Embassy contacts suggest the Smer endorsement
might add a maximum of two to three percent to Gasparovic's
election results. With consistent ratings in the mid-teens
compared to Kukan's and Meciar's low-to-mid-20-percent
results, this would not be enough to get Gasparovic to the
second round. The best Gasparovic can hope for is to
strengthen his HZD party, possibly at the cost of Meciar's
HZDS, especially if Meciar loses the presidential election.

Should Meciar win the Presidency (a doubtful outcome),
Gasparovic told us he hopes to re-enter and reform HZDS,
taking leadership away from Meciar. He believes Meciar would
be too preoccupied with the presidency and protecting his
family and wealth to control HZDS any longer. End comment.

Biographic Basics
--------------


8. (U) Gasparovic was born in Poltar, Slovakia, on March 27,

1941. He is married with two children. Gasparovic has a law
degree from Comenius University in Bratislava and worked as a
Bratislava prosecutor before teaching at Comenius. He was
briefly chief prosecutor of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic
in 1990 before President Havel recalled him for inactivity on
former Communists' crimes. In 1992, Gasparovic became a
member of Parliament for HZDS, and was chairman of Parliament
from then until 1998, though he remained an MP until 2002.
WEISER


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