THE SDKU DIVORCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000161

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: THE SDKU DIVORCE


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for reason 1.4b.


1. (C) Summary: Former Defense Minister Ivan Simko's new
"Free Forum" party is the product of both a personality
conflict and a struggle for power with PM Dzurinda. However,
Simko's indecision about making a complete break from the
SDKU and its government program lost him momentum. Coalition
parties were ready to accept him as a partner, but he threw
away the opportunity with his demand that Dzurinda step down.
Simko is no longer a strong competitor on the political
scene.


2. (C) Dzurinda did not extend an olive branch to Simko.
This political calculation was clever in one way, but
counterproductive in another. Simko is no longer a threat to
Dzurinda within the SDKU, nor is Simko with his fledgling
party a threat to Dzurinda on the larger political scene.
However, Dzurinda now leads a minority government, and it
will be much harder to get legislation passed through
parliament. Dzurinda made political mistakes in late 2003,
but seems to have learned from his errors. The coalition
government will likely stay in office to the end of its term,
and continue to push through its aggressive reform agenda.
End summary.

A Brief History of the SDKU and Recent Events
-------------- -

3. (C) As told to P/E Chief by SDKU insider Frantisek Stano
(who managed the 2002 parliamentary election campaign and has
known Simko and Dzurinda for a decade since they were in KDH
together),the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU)
party was the brainchild of Ivan Simko. Dissatisfied under
the leadership of the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) in
the mid-1990's, he envisioned an enlightened modern party
that would meld strong values with modern business
principles. Simko's intellectual capacity and organizational
ability were matched by Mikulas Dzurinda's charisma, and when
the group split from KDH, it was clear that Dzurinda would be
the public face and billboard "leader," and Simko would run
the party behind the scenes. This arrangement worked well
for several years. According to Kamil Homola (Director of
SDKU's central office, presidential campaign manager for FM
Kukan, and 25-year old nominee for "young politicians" IV
program in 2004),the trouble between Dzurinda and Simko
began at the 2002 party congress, when Simko "shocked"
Dzurinda by tossing his hat into the ring for leadership of
the SDKU. Dzurinda won, but was miffed, and there has been
tension ever since.


4. (C) Simko told DCM and P/E chief that the trouble began
only in the fall of 2003. He said Dzurinda's announcement of
the "skupinka" or little group harming Slovakia's interests
made clear his misuse of the Slovak Information Service
(SIS). Furthermore, Dzurinda's decision to fire National
Security Office (NBU) chief Jan Mojzis without consulting
cabinet members and party leaders showed a new leadership
style unpalatable to many in the SDKU. To summarize four
months of press stories, Simko refused to support the sacking
of Mojzis, was fired as Defense Minister and Deputy SDKU
chairman, formed the "Free Forum Platform" as a movement for
a "return to values" within the SDKU, and in January
finalized the divorce with Dzurinda by registering "Free
Forum" as a new political party with 7 MPs. He was invited
to join the coalition, but refused to do so as long as
Dzurinda remained Prime Minister. However, he vowed to
support the government program of reform.

What Motivates Simko?
--------------

5. (C) Both Stano and Homola characterized Simko as a
respected politician who had a grand vision, but was growing
frustrated with his relative lack of power in what he viewed
as "his" party. Stano said that Simko can't stand to be
number two, but doesn't have the stamina or charisma to be
number one. He has good ideas, but doesn't know how to work
hard, for example pounding the pavement for votes. Homola
professed admiration for Simko, his former political science
professor who got him his SDKU job, but said his ego blocked
his judgment in this case. Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK)
Secretary General Peter Voros and SMK Spokesperson Livia

SIPDIS
Pokstaller lamented that Simko's primary motivation at this
point is his personal feud with Dzurinda, which he puts ahead
of national interests.


6. (C) Simko's indecision on how cleanly to make the break
lost him momentum. He astounded leaders of the KDH, SMK, and
ANO, who were fully prepared to offer him a seat as the fifth
member of the governing coalition, by refusing to join as
long as Dzurinda remains prime minister. On the other hand,
he has said both publicly and privately that he will support
the government's reform agenda. (He recently back-tracked by
opposing the coalition's proposed education reforms.) He
disappointed Smer and other opposition parties by refusing to
support early elections. Politicians and the public are left
scratching their heads and asking, "What does Simko want?"

Simko has laudable goals such as legislating reforms in the
SIS and NBU, strengthening parliamentary oversight, and
keeping defense reform on track. However, apart from this
legislative list, he seems to be drifting without a compass.


7. (C) Fellow MP's view Simko as an introvert who lacks the
spark to lift his new party off the ground. It is doubtful
that he can build yet another political party in Slovakia's
already-saturated field. We asked Simko point-blank how he
planned to win support and differentiate himself from the
SDKU of Dzurinda. He answered, "We need a plan."

What Motivates Dzurinda?
--------------

8. (C) According to Stano, Dzurinda evaluates people as
individuals, rather than as members of a team. Individuals
that he trusts, such as his controversial advisor Sergei
Michalic, can do anything. Individual grudges, however, go
deep and last long. Stano gave as an example Dzurinda's
feeling of betrayal when Jan Figel refused to leave the KDH
with Dzurinda and Simko, which almost cost Figel an
appointment as Slovakia's EU Commissioner . Homola described
Dzurinda's favoritism for youthful energy, saying the first
question he asked about new employees was, "How old is he?"
Stano said that Dzurinda resents being told directly what he
should do, particularly by foreign governments, and sometimes
does the opposite just to prove he can. On the flip side,
Dzurinda advisor and pollster Tatiana Rosova said Dzurinda
considers his legacy to be integration of Slovakia into NATO
and the EU, so he obviously cares very much what foreign
governments think of him.


9. (C) In November, Rosova told P/E chief that Dzurinda
realized coalition politics were getting out of hand, and he
was toning down his rhetoric towards other politicians, and
especially in the press. Rosova said SDKU's falling numbers
in the polls did not indicate a defection of voters to other
parties but to "undecided," due to disenchantment with party
strife. Homola said when the going got tough and Bratislava
looked bleak, Dzurinda started calling SDKU leaders in the
regions to mobilize support. Dzurinda's strategy to return
to his previous "consultative" leadership style, to ignore
Simko, and to stop public battles seems to have paid off.
Opinion polls published in January show SDKU's numbers still
low, but on the rise again.

Coalition Partners Unhappy, but Muddling Through
-------------- ---

10. (C) All coalition partners are upset to be in a minority
government. But they are determined to stick it out through
the end of their term, with the support of defectors from
other parties, independent MPs, and the Free Forum. None
profess support for early elections. Voros and Pokstaller of
the SMK said that Simko is not a real player and he took with
him only "lackluster MP's." SMK believes Simko was pushed by
others within Free Forum to call for Dzurinda's dismissal,
because he was not so radical in private talks with SMK chair
Bela Bugar. KDH MP and presidential candidate Frantisek
Miklosko gushed to P/E chief, "I like Dzurinda, I really do.
It's a shame he let things deteriorate so far. His old style
of consulting everyone before making a decision was better."
KDH has refrained from public comment and is watching with
some pleasure as the former "betrayers" of KDH fight with
each other. With party leader Pavol Rusko safely ensconced
in the Ministry of Economy, ANO sided early with Dzurinda.

Comment
--------------

11. (C) Constitutionally and under the coalition agreement,
the PM was in his full right to fire a cabinet minister from
his party who had lost his trust. Simko's struggle against
Dzurinda for power within the SDKU was probably as much a
factor in his removal as his unwillingness to go along with
sacking Mojzis. When Simko first created the "Free Forum
Platform," said Homola, Dzurinda offered to discuss Free
Forum's complaints at a May 2004 party congress--essentially
dismissing Simko for 6 months. Dzurinda did not hold out an
olive branch to Simko. Dzurinda's calculation was clever in
a way, stupid in another. Simko is no longer a threat to
Dzurinda within the SDKU, nor is Simko with his fledgling
party a threat to Dzurinda on the larger political scene.
However, it will be much harder work now to get legislation
passed through parliament. Dzurinda made political mistakes
in late 2003, but seems to have learned from his errors. The
coalition government will likely stay in office to the end of
its term, and not only survive, but continue to push through
one of the most aggressive and successful reform agendas in
Central Europe.
WEISER


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