AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OPPOSITION LEADER FICO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000149

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV LO ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OPPOSITION LEADER FICO


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB. RONALD WEISER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (U) ROBERT FICO, CHAIRMAN OF SMER, MET WITH THE
AMBASSADOR ON FEBRUARY 2. THEY DISCUSSED A WIDE VARIETY OF
TOPICS RANGING FROM THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO
THE REFERENDUM ON EARLY ELECTIONS TO COALITION POLITICS.

SMER TO SUPPORT SCHUSTER IN THE FINAL HOUR
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2. (C) FICO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT MOST MEMBERS OF SMER
SUPPORT PRESIDENT SCHUSTER IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS, THOUGH SOME DID SUPPORT HZD LEADER IVAN
GASPAROVIC. FICO SAID THAT HIS PARTY WILL ANNOUNCE ITS
SUPPORT FOR SCHUSTER JUST PRIOR TO THE FIRST ROUND OF
ELECTIONS TO BE HELD ON APRIL 3. FICO ADDED THAT WHILE
GASPAROVIC IS AN INTERESTING CANDIDATE AND SHARES SOME OF
SMER'S VIEWS, THE PARTY WILL NOT SUPPORT A CANDIDATE THAT HAS
LITTLE CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SECOND ROUND. IN A RECENT
MEETING BETWEEN FICO AND SCHUSTER, FICO SUGGESTED TO THE
PRESIDENT THAT HIS OPPONENTS WILL TRY TO USE HIS AGE--AT 70
SCHUSTER IS THE OLDEST CANDIDATE IN THE RACE--AGAINST HIM AND
THAT TO COUNTER THESE CHARGES, SCHUSTER SHOULD TALK OPENLY
ABOUT HIS HEALTH AND VITALITY. (NOTE: IN AN ARTICLE IN SME
ON FEBRUARY 2, THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT HE WAS HEALTHIER NOW
THAN BEFORE HIS SURGERY IN JUNE 2000 THAT NEARLY KILLED HIM,
AND THAT HE PLAYS TENNIS REGULARLY.) FICO SAID THAT SMER
WOULD NOT OFFER SUPPORT TO FOREIGN MINISTER KUKAN OR FORMER
PRIME MINISTER MECIAR IN THEIR BIDS FOR PRESIDENCY. FICO
PROJECTED THAT TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE CANDIDATES WOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE SECOND ROUND: KUKAN, SCHUSTER, OR MECIAR.

REFERENDUM WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
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3. (C) FICO PREDICTED THAT THE REFERENDUM ON EARLY
ELECTIONS, WHICH SCHUSTER CONFIRMED IN HIS MEETING WITH FICO
WILL BE HELD ON APRIL 3, WILL BE SUCCESSFUL. FICO ESTIMATED
THAT 65 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE WILL TURN OUT FOR THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THEREFORE HE THOUGHT THAT THE
REFERENDUM WOULD GET AT LEAST THE 51 PERCENT OF THE REQUIRED
PARTICIPATION TO MAKE THE REFERENDUM VALID. HE WAS CONFIDENT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THOSE VOTING WOULD FAVOR EARLY
ELECTIONS. FICO ADDED THAT LEADERS FROM ANO, THE CHRISTIAN
DEMOCRATS (KDH),AND THE HUNGARIAN COALITION PARTY (SMK)
WOULD SUPPORT THE CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS IN PARLIAMENT IF
THE REFERENDUM WAS VALID.

WORKING WITH FREE FORUM
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4. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WORKING WITH IVAN
SIMKO'S FREE FORUM, FICO REPLIED THAT SIMKO HAS INDICATED
THAT HIS PARTY MAY SUPPORT SMER-GENERATED CALLS FOR VOTES OF
NO CONFIDENCE IN FINANCE MINISTER IVAN MIKLOS AND ECONOMY
MINISTER PAVOL RUSKO. FICO ADDED THAT HE EXPECTS TO WORK
WITH SIMKO IN PASSING THE LAWS ON CONFLICT OF INTEREST AND
PROPERTY DISCLOSURE. FICO OPINED THAT SIMKO HAD MISSED HIS
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A VIABLE THREAT TO PRIME MINISTER
DZURINDA AND THE SLOVAK DEMOCRATIC AND CHRISTIAN UNION
(SDKU). FICO CRITICIZED SIMKO'S EXPLANATION TO THE PUBLIC
THAT FREE FORUM SUPPORTED THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM BUT IT DID
NOT SUPPORT DZURINDA, SUGGESTING THAT THE AVERAGE SLOVAK
FOUND THIS EXPLANATION TO BE CONFUSING. (NOTE: IN A LATER
MEETING WITH SIMKO, HE INDICATED TO THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE
WOULD SUPPORT A NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON RUSKO BUT NOT MIKLOS
UNLESS THE FINANCE MINISTER MAKES A MAJOR MISTAKE OR UNLESS
THE ALLEGATIONS FICO MADE AGAINST MIKLOS ARE PROVEN TRUE.)

COMMENT
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5. (C) FICO HAS BECOME MUCH MORE POLISHED IN HIS MEETINGS
WITH THE AMBASSADOR. HIS VIEWS ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
AND IVAN SIMKO ARE REALISTIC. HOWEVER, SOME OF FICO'S OTHER
STATEMENTS CONFLICT WITH WHAT EMBOFFS HAVE HEARD FROM OTHER
SOURCES. NONE OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS IN ANO, KDH, OR SMK HAVE
SAID THEY WOULD SUPPORT EARLY ELECTIONS. FICO TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT HE IS LOOKING FORWARD TO A TRIP TO WASHINGTON
THIS SPRING.


WEISER

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