MFA VIEW ON UKRAINE'S PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000127

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV LO UP SLOVAK UKRAINE
SUBJECT: MFA VIEW ON UKRAINE'S PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENT

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 101 B. KIEV 129

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR RONALD WEISER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) POLOFF CALLED ON MFA UKRAINE DESK OFFICER PETER VIZDAL
FOR A GENERAL DISCUSSION ON SLOVAK-UKRAINE RELATIONS. VIZDAL
POINTED OUT THAT SLOVAKIA SIGNED THE EU DECLARATION
CRITICIZING A PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO ALLOW
KUCHMA TO RUN FOR A THIRD TERM (REF B),AS A MATTER OF COMMON
FOREIGN POLICY LOOKING AHEAD TO EU INTEGRATION. VIZDAL, WHO
SPENT THE LAST FOUR YEARS AT THE SLOVAK EMBASSY IN KIEV,
ADDED THAT SLOVAKIA IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE ISSUE AND IS
TROUBLED BY THE AMENDMENT. HE PREDICTED THAT THE AMENDMENT
WOULD PASS TO THE SECOND READING, AND NOTED THE
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT IN UKRAINE HAS ALREADY RULED THAT THE
AMENDMENT WOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM.


2. (C) VIZDAL EMPHASIZED THAT UKRAINE IS USUALLY UNRESPONSIVE
TO "DECLARATIONS" AND IN FACT WILL TEND TO DO THE OPPOSITE OF
WHAT IS ASKED. AS FOR SLOVAKIA'S INFLUENCE, VIZDAL NOTED
THAT WHILE SLOVAKIA AND UKRAINE HAVE A GOOD DIALOGUE, UKRAINE
SEES ITSELF AS A REGIONAL LEADER THAT, WITH ITS POPULATION OF
50 MILLION, HAS LITTLE REASON TO LISTEN TO SLOVAKIA, A
COUNTRY ONE-TENTH UKRAINE'S SIZE. HISTORICALLY AND
ECONOMICALLY, POLAND HAS BEEN A MUCH CLOSER PARTNER WITH
UKRAINE. IF THE UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT DOES APPROVE THE
AMENDMENT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE SLOVAKIA CAN DO. VIZDAL ALSO
OBSERVED THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO OTHER CANDIDATE BESIDES
KUCHMA WHO HAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO BE ABLE TO GOVERN UKRAINE.


3. (C) COMMENT: MFA OFFICIALS HAVE TOLD US IN THE PAST THAT
THEY WOULD LIKE TO DEVELOP "NICHE CAPABILITIES" IN FOREIGN
POLICY, INCLUDING THE BALKANS AND SLOVAKIA'S EASTERN
NEIGHBORS. POLICY TOWARD UKRAINE, BELARUS, MOLDOVA AND OTHER
FORMER STATES OF THE USSR WILL BE A MAJOR THEME OF DISCUSSION
AT THE MARCH 18-19 BRATISLAVA II CONFERENCE HOSTED BY PM
DZURINDA. WHILE PRESIDENT SCHUSTER'S VIEW OF KUCHMA (REF A)
IS COLORED BY THEIR FRIENDSHIP, LOWER LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT
ARE PRODUCTIVELY ENGAGING UKRAINIAN COUNTERPARTS ON ISSUES
SUCH AS BETTER LAW-ENFORCEMENT COOPERATION AT THE BORDER.
SLOVAKIA CAN'T INFLUENCE UKRAINE SINGLE-HANDEDLY, BUT WOULD
SUPPORT A V-4, EU, OR U.S. INITIATIVE THAT ENGAGES
REFORM-ORIENTED UKRAINE LEADERS.
THAYER

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