Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BRATISLAVA1043
2004-11-16 18:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

CAUTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN GOS AS UKRAINE ELECTION

Tags:  PREL PGOV LO UP 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 001043 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV LO UP
SUBJECT: CAUTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN GOS AS UKRAINE ELECTION
NEARS

REF: STATE 240442

Classified By: DCM Scott N. Thayer for reasons 1.4 B & D

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 001043

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV LO UP
SUBJECT: CAUTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN GOS AS UKRAINE ELECTION
NEARS

REF: STATE 240442

Classified By: DCM Scott N. Thayer for reasons 1.4 B & D


1. (C) Summary and Introduction: Emboffs have discussed the
second round of presidential elections in Ukraine with
several GOS interlocutors this week. Expectations regarding
outcome are divided--the Prime Minister's foreign policy
advisor is optimistic about a Yushchenko win, while MFA
policy planners give the nod to Yanukovich. The MFA Director
General for EU Affairs cautioned against hasty negative
declarations following the election in order to avoid giving
Kuchma an excuse for invalidating the entire election. MFA
Ukraine desk officer refused to speculate on the outcome, but
predicted cooler relations with a Victor Yanukovich-led
Ukraine. End summary.

A Call for Post-Election Caution
--------------


2. (C) Director General for EU Affairs Frantisek Ruzicka
expressed caution and concern to DCM and POLEC Chief November
15 about international reaction to the second round.
Although EU foreign ministers will "certainly" discuss the
elction at the Nov 22 GAERC, Ruzicka worried that a premature
negative appraisal from international observers and
commentators might give Kuchma an opening to invalidate the
"flawed" elections, especially if there were a Yushchenko
victory, thus allowing him to stay in office until elections
could be rescheduled. With votes being counted up to ten
days after the elections, it might be better to wait until
the process has run its full course before making a final
judgment. (Comment: Given Ruzicka's near-constant engagement
with other EU interlocutors through COREU and the CFSP
coordination process, his comments may perhaps reflect
concerns of other EU member states.) Milan Jezovica, the
PM's foreign policy advisor, rejected this concern in a
separate conversation with DCM November 16, saying that
Kuchma would not risk popular unrest if the election results
were clearly disrespected.

The View from the Desk
--------------


3. (C) Poloff delivered reftel demarche November 16 to MFA
Ukraine desk officer Radoslav Kusenda. Kusenda reiterated
that the GOS wants to see a free and fair election in Ukraine
and remains concerned about antidemocratic actions, but did
not see Slovakia taking a hardline stance against its eastern
neighbor. Slovakia will send its largest observer mission in
its history to Ukraine and will reevaluate its foreign policy
towards Ukraine after the ballot count.


4. (U) The GOS and Slovak NGOs observed the first round and
will do the same for the second round vote. 108 Slovaks will
have observed one of the two votes; 20 percent observed the
first vote and 80 percent will observe the upcoming vote.
Kusenda agreed with the U.S. description of Ukrainian
pre-election and first round voting irregularities. The GOS
supported the OSCE statement following the first round vote.


5. (C) After the vote count is completed December 6, the GOS
will evaluate its policy towards Ukraine. Kusenda described
the first round,s outcome as &administratively
complicated.8 It was not obviously antidemocratic as in
Belarus, he said, but not completely free and fair either.
Any policy shifts, including visa restrictions, would be made
in close cooperation with the EU. He said bilateral visa
restrictions are difficult, since Slovakia borders on
Ukraine.


6. (C) Kusenda expected the GOS to have cooler relations
with a Viktor Yanukovich-led Ukraine. While both candidates
would need to court the same internal power interests, he
said, Yanukovich would draw more heavily on the eastern
Ukrainian industrial class and forge strong links with
Russia. Victor Yushchenko would draw Ukraine closer to
Brussels, giving the GOS a greater role in helping shape
European policy towards Ukraine, he said. Kusenda described
the EU policy towards Ukraine in the last year as
&incoherent.8 (NOTE: GOS often presents Ukraine as one of
its two foreign policy priorities and seeks a leadership role
on Ukrainian issues at the EU.)
WEISER


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