Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04BOGOTA4632
2004-05-06 19:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:  

PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION PASSES FIRST TEST

Tags:  PGOV PINR CO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004632 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION PASSES FIRST TEST

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004632

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION PASSES FIRST TEST

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (SBU) Summary: Prospects for passage of legislation to
permit immediate presidential reelection are mixed. As
Constitutional reform, the proposal faces a challenging vote
hurdle. Approval requires eight votes: committee and
plenary, both chambers, this session and next. End Summary.


2. (U) Legislation to reform the Constitution to allow
immediate presidential reelection passed Senate committee (12
votes of 19 total) the week of April 26. The bill is now
before the full Senate. As Constitutional reform, the
measure requires approval by regular majorities (majority of
quorum) in both houses prior to the close of the current
congressional session on June 20. Subsequently, it would
need approval by "qualified" majorities (majority of total
members) in both houses during the July-December session.


3. (U) The Conservative Party, with 25 of 102 senators and
43 of 166 representatives, is the key swing vote on the
issue. If Uribista Liberals (roughly 35 in the Senate and 60
in the House) and Conservatives vote in unison in favor, the
reform will pass. Former President Andres Pastrana, leader
for a sizable percentage of the Conservative Party, publicly
opposes reelection on the grounds that it should not apply to
Uribe but only to future presidents. However, Pastrana, in a
leaked letter to party head Carlos Holguin, recommended that
party members vote their consciences on the issue. Uribe and
Interior Minister Sabas Pretelt have consulted regularly with
the Conservatives on the issue.


4. (U) Detractors include the Officialist Liberal Party, led
by former presidents Ernesto Samper, Julio Turbay, and
Alfonso Lopez, and the Independent Democratic Party (PDI) of
Senator Antonio Navarro and Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon. The
former stresses the view that reelection, if passed, should
not benefit Uribe. The latter largely resists reelection on
ideological grounds. The Liberals and PDI both hope to run
their own candidate in 2006. Many worry about the
possibility of a level playing field for challengers to a
sitting incumbent.


5. (C) The qualified majority requirement in the second
round is a serious hurdle. Public opinion is strongly on
Uribe's side, with 70-80 percent in favor of reelecting him,
according to various recent polls. Uribe has the numbers in
Congress provided that the Uribista Liberals and
Conservatives vote in unison on the issue. Our senior level
Conservative contacts concur that the party will vote almost
entirely in favor (with perhaps a handful of exceptions,
particularly in the lower house). However, Uribista Liberal
contacts in both houses have told us privately that some of
their ranks have become concerned with Uribe's over-attention
to the Conservatives.


6. (C) Comment: Defeat in this session of Congress--in
either house--would likely spell death for the issue, as the
clock would have to start over with the July-December session
and continue into the March-June session of 2005. Our
interlocutors say that would be too close to the presidential
election in summer 2006 to be viable.
WOOD