PEACE AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A VIEW FROM THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 013168

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2014
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: PEACE AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A VIEW FROM THE
DEMOCRATIC LEFT

REF: BOGOTA 12860

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.5 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: Leftist Senator Carlos Gaviria -- a
self-declared presidential candidate in 2006 -- told poloffs
to expect lawsuits against the recently approved
constitutional amendment authorizing presidential reelection
and expressed concerns about a possible clash between high
courts over the issue. He lamented the democratic left's
inability to coalesce around a single candidate capable of
challenging Uribe and suggested that former President Gaviria
could shift the official Liberal Party to the right in
alliance with Uribe. He blamed the internal armed conflict
on inequality of wealth and opportunity and complained that
the security forces do not set a high enough human rights
standard. He will be an articulate presidential candidate,
but his chances are poor. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On December 17, poloffs met with Senator Carlos
Gaviria Diaz, former Constitutional Court Magistrate, current
head of the center-left Democratic Alternative movement, and
self-proclaimed 2006 presidential candidate. In discussing
Congress's recent passage of Constitutional reform
legislation authorizing presidential reelection, Gaviria
noted that any person can file suit ("demanda") against the
legislation and said it is reasonable to expect a number of
such suits in the near future. He also expressed concern
about a potential clash between two of the country's high
courts -- the Constitutional Court and Council of State --
over the issue. Gaviria acknowledged that President Uribe's
popularity would be among the factors influencing the
Constitutional Court's ultimate decision, but asserted that
polls exaggerate the President's popularity.


3. (SBU) Gaviria said it would be difficult for Colombia's
democratic left to coalesce around a single presidential
candidate, despite general agreement among leftist parties on
a basic platform. One factor is the continued high level of
support for Uribe among the general public. Another is that
Bogota Mayor Luis Eduardo "Lucho" Garzon -- the left's most
charismatic candidate, who has publicly declared he will not
run for president in 2006 -- has concentrated on municipal
administration and pulled away from purely political debate
and infighting. (Note: Per reftel, the reelection law would
permit Garzon to run if he resigns as mayor one year prior to
the presidential election scheduled for May 2006. End Note.)
According to Gaviria, Garzon has distanced himself from the
Independent Democratic Pole party ("Polo Democratico
Independiente," or PDI) in recent months. PDI leaders
Antonio Navarro and Samuel Moreno both have presidential
aspirations, but neither is competitive in public opinion
polls at this time.


4. (SBU) Regarding the struggling official Liberal Party,
Gaviria predicted former Colombian President and OAS
Secretary General Cesar Gaviria may seek to take control of

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the party and lead it in a so-called "neoliberal" direction.
To do so, however, the former President would have to
overcome opposition from the party's vocal social democratic
wing. Gaviria said the former President might also move the
party toward open support for Uribe's reelection. However,
the "horse trading" to get Liberal Party support could strain
the Conservative Party's support for Uribe. Some
conservatives, while loyal to Uribe as a party, perceive that
Uribe has taken them for granted and would probably resent
any concessions Uribe might make to gain the support of his
former party's official structure.

5. (SBU) For Gaviria, former President Andres Pastrana's
failed appeasement policy with the Revolutionary Armed Forces
of Colombia (FARC) was politically motivated and poorly
negotiated, failing to exhaust the possibilities for a
negotiated settlement. Uribe's Democratic Security Policy
correctly focuses on achieving public order through expanded
state control, but has lost legitimacy because the security
forces have not maintained standards sufficiently superior to
those of the illegal armed groups they are trying to subdue.
Gaviria offered frequent cases of mass detentions as an
example of the state's failure to live up to its obligations.


6. (C) Comment: Gaviria is one of the loudest voices of the
center-left. He was realistic about his slim prospects in
the presidential campaign, continually pointing to Uribe's
approval numbers and the lack of coordinated center-left
opposition.
WOOD