LEBANON: WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMAL?

S E C R E T BEIRUT 004941

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV KISL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMAL?

REF: BEIRUT 4587

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher W. Murray for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (S) Summary and comment: The Amal Movement is unable to
keep up with Hizballah's popularity because Amal is seen as
disorganized, corrupt, and based too much on party leader
Nabih Berri. Referred to as "the thieves," Amal's leaders
maintain party support through a patronage system that uses
government and international aid funds to pay supporters.
Amal enjoys little real popularity; many of its supporters
are more anti-Hizballah than pro-Amal. Berri is unwilling to
reform Amal and has not prepared the party for the future,
which suggests future Amal electoral losses to Hizballah.
End summary and comment.

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WHERE DOES THE MONEY GO?
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2. (S) The Amal Movement, Hizballah's rival for leadership
of Lebanon's Shia community, is corrupt and disorganized
under the leadership of Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri,
according to Shia politicians and citizens whom we
interviewed. None are supporters of Hizballah. Amal's
leadership is referred to as "the thieves," according to
Professor Nizar Hamzeh of the American University of Beirut.
Berri delivers social services and development aid to
predominantly-Shia southern Lebanon. But the way he does it
("wheeling, dealing, and stealing," according to a relative
of Amal's founder Imam Musa Sadr) gives him a poor
reputation. While Hizballah uses Iranian money and donations
to fund its social services, Berri simply redirects Lebanese
taxpayer money to his supporters.


3. (S) Much of the GOL's reconstruction and development
contracts in southern Lebanon are awarded to Berri associates
who hire Berri supporters, according to Hamzeh. Berri
directs government tobacco subsidies to Lebanon's inefficient
tobacco farms in his political base along the southern
Lebanese coast, according to Ahmad Assaad, an independent
Shia politician. Assaad added that the GOL-funded Council of
the South rebuilds homes in southern Lebanon destroyed by
Israeli bombing and shelling, but Amal supporters receive far
more compensation for their homes than Hizballah supporters
do. Abdallah Bitar, the pro-Amal President of the Nabatiyeh
Merchants' Association, told econoff that municipalities that
vote for Hizballah get little GOL development aid. Nabatiyeh
residents expressed concern to econoff that recent Hizballah
gains on the municipal council will cost their town
infrastructure aid.


4. (C) Yasser Atwi, the English language coordinator at an
Amal-run school, provided econoff with an example of Amal
charity work that is mostly funded by taxpayer money. Atwi
said that Amal built the school with party money and private
donations, but it does not pay for the operating costs.
Tuition in the Tyre school is subsidized by the GOL at USD
600 per student; the parents pay USD 400. The school, though
run by Amal party loyalists, is effectively funded by the GOL
and tuition payments.


5. (C) Berri has been successful in obtaining international
development aid, but many Shia doubt if it goes to the
Lebanese people. Hamzeh told us that a center for
handicapped and retarded children is closed for most of the
year but opened when the center's Italian donors visit.
Hamzeh said that there is a director and staff who collect
paychecks, but they are Berri associates who do not normally
show up for work.

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BERRI, MAN OF THE PEOPLE... HIS PEOPLE
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6. (S) Our contacts blame much of Amal's stagnation on
Berri. One who personally knows Berri described him as
temperamental, easily angered, and egotistical. Berri,
unlike Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, is not
accessible to his subordinates and is regarded as aloof.
Mohammad Baydun, a member of the Chamber of Deputies from
Tyre and former Amal member, told econoff that Berri tries to
make all decisions himself, but he makes those decisions in
the interests of his family members' finances, not for the
sake of the party. Bitar said that Berri's inner circle acts
as his gatekeepers; they use their access to information to
increase their personal wealth. Berri acknowledged Amal's
shortcomings in his conversations with Bitar, but he appeared
too old and tired to do anything about it. "He didn't care,"
said Bitar.


7. (S) Berri has become wealthy and owns a large estate
outside of Sidon. No one knows how Berri became wealthy, but
his practice of taking a cut of investments in southern
Lebanon is one source of income. Berri insists on becoming a
partner in any new venture in southern Lebanon without
investing any of his own capital, according to southern
Lebanese businessmen (reftel). Assaad confirmed this
practice, saying that Berri scares off investment in the
economically depressed south by demanding a share and the
hiring of his cronies.


8. (S) While Berri's wealth has increased, Amal appears to
be having difficulty raising money. Amal is losing members
to Hizballah, according to Hamzeh. Hamzeh said that Amal's
street fundraising is also drying up. More Shia imams are
directing charity money to Hizballah projects, according to
Baydun. Wealthy Lebanese Shia expatriates in Africa are no
longer sending donations to Amal because they do not trust
Amal leaders to spend the money on the people, according to
Baydun.


9. (C) Iran is providing some funds to Amal, though not
nearly as much as it gives to Hizballah, according to MP Ali
Osseirran of Sidon, a member of Berri's parliamentary bloc.
Hamzeh estimated that Iran gives Amal about USD 1 million
annually.

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SOFT SUPPORT
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10. (C) Amal supporters are often more anti-Hizballah than
pro-Amal. Amal supporters Bitar and Atwi cited Hizballah's
extreme Islamist ideology as the reason they lean to Amal.
Atwi told econoff that he was afraid of what Hizballah might
do if it were in charge. At the same time, moderate,
pro-Western Shia have admitted to us that Hizballah is clean
of corruption, efficient at providing social services, and
considered heroic for forcing the Israeli Army to withdraw
from southern Lebanon in 2000.


11. (C) Amal's armed element is no match for Hizballah's
military wing, according to Professor Timur Goksel, former
UNIFIL spokesman and political adviser for 24 years. Goksel
estimates that there are as many as 5,000 armed members of
Amal, but they do not train or operate as an organized
militia. Goksel reflected on the days when Amal commanded
15,000 militiamen and how far it has atrophied since then.
Bitar had a similar view of Amal's armed element, saying that
the party didn't have a "real militia." Syria and Iran
restrain Hizballah from routing Amal by force, according to
Georges Nasr, political officer in the UN mission to southern
Lebanon.

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A BLEAK FUTURE
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12. (S) As a result of Amal's corruption and Berri's poor
leadership, Hizballah's political strength is increasing.
Hamzeh estimates that one-third of Lebanese Shia support
Amal, while two-thirds support Hizballah. Hizballah is
increasing its political power in areas traditionally
supportive of Amal, like Nabatiyeh and the southern Lebanon
coast. Hizballah gained control of Nabatiyeh's municipal
council in elections this year and is seeking to expand its
influence over this historically independent town of 30,000
people. Bitar told us that Hizballah in the past few months
has opened 40-50 new offices to provide social services, in
some cases leasing apartments for office space. Support for
Amal is weakening in Sidon and the Jezzine area, according to
Baydun. Amal is still strong only in the Tyre area, Baydun
and Hamzeh told us. They predict Hizballah will likely make
gains against Amal in next spring's parliamentary elections.


13. (S) Baydun believes that Amal's disorganization may
lead Syria to replace Berri in the Shia-held position of
Speaker of Parliament. He cited as evidence the fact that
Berri has met with Syrian President Bashar Asad only twice in
the past 15 months, each time for less than a half hour.
Baydun listed Surete Generale chief Jamil Sayyid among
Berri's possible Shia successors, following parliamentary
elections.


14. (C) There is no heir apparent in Amal, according to
Hamzeh. All of the candidates come from Berri's family.
Hamzeh said Berri's son, Abdallah, was being groomed, but
Berri had not begun to prepare him until recently. One of
our contacts described Abdallah Berri as a "fine young man"
as a student who has since become corrupt in his party
involvement. Berri's wife, Randa, reportedly prefers her 16
year-old son Basil to Abdallah, but Randa is not well-liked
in the Shia community.

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COMMENT
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15. (S) All of the people we talked to were anti-Hizballah,
and some were pro-Amal. Amal is near universally derided as
corrupt to the core, but it is also considered the only
alternative for moderate, secular Shia. Ahmad Assaad hopes
to start a third way for Shia by identifying clean
politicians who do not have an extremist ideology. This
would be a positive development for the well-being and
stability of southern Lebanon. End comment.


MURRAY