Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ANKARA6946
2004-12-14 15:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY CONCERNED ABOUT KIRKUK ELECTION DELAY AND

Tags:  PREL PGOV TU IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

141556Z Dec 04
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006946 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY CONCERNED ABOUT KIRKUK ELECTION DELAY AND
POSSIBLE KRG REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE; VISITING KDP
OFFICIAL (TO US) LINKS THE TWO

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2092


B. BAGHDAD 2102

C. BAGHDAD 2137

Classified By: DCM Robert S. Deutsch for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006946

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY CONCERNED ABOUT KIRKUK ELECTION DELAY AND
POSSIBLE KRG REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE; VISITING KDP
OFFICIAL (TO US) LINKS THE TWO

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2092


B. BAGHDAD 2102

C. BAGHDAD 2137

Classified By: DCM Robert S. Deutsch for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) MFA Director General for the Middle East called in DCM
Dec. 14 to express concern about three issues: the KDP flag
flying over the Iraqi customs building at the Turkey/Iraq
border, a possible delay in Governorate elections in Kirkuk,
and reports that the KRG may hold a referendum on Kurdish
independence on Jan. 30. DCM responded that we have pushed
the Kurdish leadership and IIG on our view that elections
should be held on time everywhere in the country. A visiting
senior KDP official told us Dec. 13 that the KRG might hold
such a referendum if the IIG does not take Kurdish concerns
about Kirkuk "seriously." We cannot evaluate from Ankara
whether the Iraqi Kurds would in fact go through with such a
referendum, but such a vote would be hugely difficult for the
GOT to swallow. End summary.


2. (C) MFA Director General for the Middle East called in DCM
on Dec. 14 to discuss Iraq. Celikkol reported briefly on
Turkish outreach efforts to Sunni parties in Iraq for
upcoming elections (septel),then raised three issues of
concern to Turkey: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) flag
being raised at the Turkish/Iraqi border, Kurdish demands to
delay governorate council elections in Kirkuk, and possible
Kurdish plans for a de facto referendum on independence.

KDP Flag Flying at Habur
--------------


3. (C) Celikkol reported that the Iraqi flag over the Iraqi
border customs building at the Habur Gate had recently been
removed and replaced with the KDP flag. He stated that
Turkey firmly believes that the flag should be Iraqi.
Celikkol added that the Turkish embassy in Baghdad has raised
this issue with IIG authorities.

Election Delay in Kirkuk?
--------------


4. (C) Celikkol said that Turkey is concerned about recent
attempts by the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) to delay Kirkuk Governorate Council elections. He
emphasized that Turkey believes elections should take place

everywhere in the country on time.


5. (C) DCM responded that we share Turkey's position, and we
have pressed hard on this issue in recent weeks both in
Baghdad and Kirkuk with IIG leaders and Kurdish leaders. We
also understand that the Independent Election Commission of
Iraq (IECI) has confirmed that these elections shall take
place in Kirkuk on Jan. 30.

Kurdish Referendum on Independence?
--------------


6. (C) Celikkol said that Turkey has seen reports--though
perhaps only rumors--that Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)
leaders are planning for a "fourth ballot box" (i.e., in
addition to boxes for national, KRG, and Governorate
elections) where Kurds would vote on whether they would
prefer to break away from Iraq and become an independent
state. While apparently Kurdish leaders would portray such a
vote as only a non-binding measure of public opinion,
Celikkol warned that such a step would amount to a referendum
on independence. "This would be very unacceptable," Celikkol
stated. Celikkol said this was an unconfirmed report, and
that he was seeking clarification. DCM responded that this
would be news to us, and that we would pass this information
on to Baghdad and Washington.

Visiting KDP Official to Emboff: IIG
Must Take Us Seriously...
--------------


7. (C) On Dec. 13, PolMilOff met with Safeen Dizayee, head of
the KDP's international bureau and former KDP representative
in Ankara. PolMilOff repeated USG position (per reftels)
that we oppose delaying the elections in Kirkuk, and urged
that the KDP and PUK consider options that would allow them
to agree to go forward with elections Jan. 30. Dizayee
responded that progress to solve the Kirkuk issue under
Article 58 of the TAL has been glacial, and complained
especially that the Iraqi Property Claims Commission process
"has been a total failure." Dizayee also contended that
local IECI officials have denied to most Kurdish IDPs the
right to vote in Kirkuk; he claimed the IECI is dominated by
non-Kurds and has not treated the Kurds fairly.

...If They Don't, Referendum Is Possible
--------------


8. (C) Dizayee reported that within the next few days Jalal
Talabani of the PUK and Nechirvan Barzani of the KDP would
travel to Baghdad to discuss the Kirkuk election problem with
senior IIG leaders, including PM Allawi (NOTE: Dizayee said
the press of time and security considerations may dictate
that the Kurdish leaders may not be able to travel to
Baghdad; if not, they will conduct their consultations by
telephone. END NOTE.) Dizayee emphasized that the Kurdish
leaders will demand that IIG leaders "take seriously" Kurdish
concerns about Kirkuk, but stopped short of saying that the
election timing issue was non-negotiable. When PolMilOff
asked Dizayee what the consequences would be if Kurdish
leaders still were to insist on delayed elections in Kirkuk
but the vote were to go forward anyway, he said one response
might be to hold a referendum in the Kurdish areas on
independence. Dizayee emphasized that Iraq's Kurds have
compromised a great deal for the sake of a unified Iraq.

Comment: A Credible Threat?
--------------


9. (C) It is possible that Dizayee (perhaps even unwittingly;
he met us in a public setting) is the source of the Turks'
information that the Kurds are considering a referendum on
independence. If not, however, we have two data points
suggesting that this is on the Iraqi Kurds' minds. It goes
without saying that such a vote would draw a harsh reaction
from Turkey, since it would be seen as a serious threat to
Iraq's territorial integrity. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
EDELMAN