DCM URGES CONTINUED EU PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006627

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU TU
SUBJECT: DCM URGES CONTINUED EU PROGRESS

REF: ANKARA 6489

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Eric S. Edelman; reasons 1.4 b
and d.


1. (C) Summary: The DCM November 26 urged MFA officials to
look for ways to bolster Turkey's EU candidacy in the run-up
to the December Summit. With opposition to Turkish
membership building in Europe, the GOT should strengthen its
position by pursuing reforms. Signing a protocol extending
its EU Association agreement to the 10 new EU members,
including the Republic of Cyprus, could mark an additional
step. USG leaders will be contacting EU counterparts on
Turkey's behalf. MFA officials said FM Gul is adamantly
opposed to signing the protocol before the Summit. Moreover,
the GOT has a number of EU-related concerns, which Gul
explained to EU Troika representatives on November 23. The
GOT insists that the EU set a date in 2005 to begin formal
accession talks. While the outcome of the talks cannot be
determined in advance, Turkey must be offered full membership
if it meets all criteria. The EU can discuss restrictions on
the migration of Turkish workers during accession talks, but
should not include the matter in the written Summit
conclusions. End Summary.

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Gul "Adamantly Opposed" to Signing Protocol
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2. (U) In a meeting with MFA Director General for EU Affairs
Naci Akinci and his deputy, Selim Yenel, the DCM encouraged
the GOT to seek steps they could take to renew the momentum
of Turkeys' EU candidacy. He noted that EU representatives,
including those from countries strongly supporting Turkey's
candidacy, insist that Turkey sign an additional protocol to
the 1963 Ankara Agreement that would include the 10 new
members, including the Republic of Cyprus, in the Turkey-EU
Customs Union. EUR DAS Kennedy raised this issue with GOT
officials November 12 (reftel). Since then, the Embassy has
learned more details. The EU apparently submitted to the GOT
a draft protocol including all 10 new EU member states,
including Cyprus. Other associated states have already
signed such agreements, and more are being asked to sign.
The EU considers this routine business, not a special
concession by Turkey on Cyprus.


3. (C) Yenel said the protocol issue was discussed during the
November 23 EU Troika meeting. The GOT does not believe
there is any need to sign the protocol before the December
Summit. During the accession process, Turkey, like all
candidates, will have to adopt the EU acquis, including all
requirements relating to the Customs Union. EU Troika
representatives said Turkey needs to sign the protocol in
order to convince the Greek Cypriots not to undermine
Turkey's candidacy at the Summit. FM Gul gave a blunt reply:
The EU always asks Turkey to make concessions on Cyprus, but
never asks anything of the Greek Cypriots. A GOT decision to
sign the protocol will not ease Greek Cypriot hostility, and
therefore Turkey has nothing to gain. Yenel said Gul is
adamantly opposed to signing before the Summit. Akinci noted
that in recent, written exchanges the EU has confirmed an
additional protocol was necessary and Turkey has confirmed it
is willing to negotiate. He said, however, that it would not
be signed before the December 17 Summit. Such a signature
would require a Turkish re-statement of its position of
non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus, which would
undermine any gains that could be made with EU members.


4. (C) The DCM said the U.S. is urging EU leaders to focus on
the larger, strategic issues at stake in Turkey's EU
candidacy, and not be overly distracted by technical matters
like the protocol. However, the GOT has to realize that
Turkey's EU momentum has slowed. Europeans are growing
increasingly concerned about Muslim immigration, and this is
strengthening Turkey's opponents. The GOT should be looking
for ways to demonstrate, before the Summit, its political
will to join the EU; signing the protocol -- which Turkey
will have to do before accession in any case -- would help
achieve that. It is true that signing would have no impact
on Greek Cypriot attitudes, but it could influence the other
EU members.

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GOT Raises Concerns at Troika
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5. (C) Yenel said Gul explained the full range of GOT
concerns to EU interlocutors at the Troika. The European
Commission has recommended the EU apply a "screening process"
before opening talks on each chapter of the acquis. This is
not a problem for Turkey as long as screening starts in the
beginning of 2005 and the formal accession talks start later
in the year. But the GOT would object to a plan that would
postpone formal talks until 2006. EU officials did not
reveal their position on the matter, saying only that a
decision would be made the following week. The GOT is also
concerned about possible references to the accession talks as
"open ended." Of course, the final outcome of talks cannot
be known in advance, but the goal must be accession and full
membership. Any suggestion that Turkey would be offered
less, even if it met all criteria, is unacceptable. The EU
has no legitimate grounds to treat Turkey differently from
other candidate countries. Yenel said the Dutch are
apparently lobbying in support of an interpretation of "open
ended" that would be acceptable to Turkey. But a strong
minority of states continues to favor a different approach.
Yenel said Gul noted that the Commission recommended the EU
consider adopting "permanent safeguards" allowing EU states
to restrict the migration of Turkish workers. The GOT
believes such measures can be discussed during accession
talks, but should not be included in the written EU Summit
conclusions. Yenel noted that the Dutch were not
particularly helpful with the Turks' concerns and that the
GOT viewed the Troika discussions as a mixed bag at best. He
added that the Turks had learned that the Dutch intended to
circulate draft conclusions on Turkey to the member states
the week of November 29, but they would not be sharing them
with Turkey.

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USG Will Continue Support
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6. (C) The DCM urged the GOT to quickly adopt three pending
laws cited by the European Commission as important for EU
accession -- the Criminal Procedure Code, the Judicial Police
Law, and the Execution of Punishments Law. He said USG
officials, including at the most senior levels, will contact
select EU leaders on Turkey's behalf. Any new examples of
the GOT's continuing legal reforms, or their implementation,
would help the U.S. make Turkey's case. Naci Akinci, MFA
Director General for EU Affairs, said Turkey appreciates U.S.
support. However, such support in some areas could be
counterproductive. The U.S. can probably be most effective
by using subtle methods of persuasion with select EU states
in the run-up to the December Summit.

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Comment
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7. (C) The GOT still seems to have a distorted view of how it
is going to fare on December 17. It is taking a fairly
typical maximalist position, but is unable or unwilling to
take additional measures to improve the odds of a positive
outcome. In public, officials seem to be emphasizing the
negative reactions from the EU and boxing themselves in
against taking any new measures. We exclude neither the
possibility that the GOT will take the expected EU's
qualified "yes" as a "no," nor the possibility that some
within the government or State apparatus will be happy with
that outcome.
EDELMAN