Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ANKARA6311
2004-11-08 16:17:00
SECRET
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

UK DIPLOMATS MEET IN ANKARA TO THINK ABOUT THE WAY

Tags:  PREL CY TU 
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S E C R E T ANKARA 006311 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014
TAGS: PREL CY TU
SUBJECT: UK DIPLOMATS MEET IN ANKARA TO THINK ABOUT THE WAY
AHEAD ON CYPRUS


Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T ANKARA 006311

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014
TAGS: PREL CY TU
SUBJECT: UK DIPLOMATS MEET IN ANKARA TO THINK ABOUT THE WAY
AHEAD ON CYPRUS


Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The UK Ambassadors to Greece and Turkey,
Cyprus High Commissioner Parker, and FCO EU and Mediterranean
Director Chilcott met in Ankara November 1 to discuss, inter
alia, the way forward on Cyprus. They assess that
Papadopolous' demands are not yet getting any support within
the EU and he will not cast a veto in December, but there is
some pressure for Turkey to sign a protocol extending
Turkey's Association Agreement with the EU to the ten new
members (including the ROC) before the December EU Summit.
After December, they assess that Papadopolous' leverage will
grow stronger and Turkey's weaker as more time passes without
a settlement, and that Turkey and the TCs should re-initiate
the settlement process. End Summary.

Papadopolous Not Yet Getting Any Traction
--------------


2. (C) They generally agreed that Papadopolous will continue
lobbying for Cyprus-related concessions in the run up to
December 17, but in the end will not veto Turkey getting a
date to begin accession negotiations. They predict he will
keep pressing two main points with EU members: Turkish
failure to recognize a fellow EU member, and Turkish troops
occupying an EU member's territory. The UK diplomats agree
that Papadopolous has not yet gotten any traction among EU
members to impose new Cyprus-related conditions on Turkey
before December 17.

Some Pressure to Extend Association Agreement By December
-------------- --------------


3. (C) While Papadopolous' demand for Turkey to recognize
the ROC is not getting any traction, the UK diplomats think
that before December 17 the GOT may have to sign a protocol
extending Turkey's Association Agreement with the EU to the
ten new member states (including the ROC). (The EU President
Dutch DCM and the Danish DCM told us recently Turkey has to
do this before December 17.) The Commission's October 6
report said it "expects a positive reply from Turkey to the
draft protocol on the necessary adaptations" of the Ankara
Agreement to take account of the new members, but did not
specify a date for Turkish compliance.


4. (C) The UK has not yet seen any member state threatening
to veto in December if there is no extension. However, they
worry that lack of a protocol will negatively affect the
strength of the EU's "yes" in December, the concomitant
conditions, and the promptness of the date Turkey will get to
begin negotiations. At a minimum, the UK thinks the Turks
should be actively talking to the Commission about extending
the Association Agreement; MFA Deputy U/S Bozkir has told the
UK that Turkey is in dialogue with the Commission on the
matter.


5. (C) Turkish MFA legal adviser Bolukbasi has told UK
diplomats that the GCs will use outright recognition to argue
that the Cyprus issue is merely an internal ROC matter and
the TCs merely an internal minority group. Extending the
Association Agreement would be one way around this, with the
Turks adding a reservation (as they did via a letter to
Solana when they signed the EU Constitutional Treaty on
October 29) that the protocol does not change Turkey's
position vis-a-vis the ROC.

The Way Forward in 2005
--------------


6. (C) After December, the UK consensus is that Turkey needs
to take the initiative to re-open talks between GCs and TCs.
They assess that Papadopolous' leverage with EU members will
grow stronger after December; Turkey's leverage will grow
weaker as it gets closer to actual accession without a
settlement. The UK sees an opportunity after the spring 2005
"TRNC President" elections, which they believe Talat will
win. The UK thinks the best course for the Turks would be to
prepare a "package" of measures they are willing to take on
Cyprus and the concessions they would seek in return.
(Comment: This would also blunt criticism here about Turkey
giving unilateral concessions. End Comment.) Even assuming
the GCs reject it, this would give the Turks credit for
continuing to seek a settlement. At a minimum, Talat should
try to engage Papadopolous in "talks about talks."


7. (S) UK political chief Sharma (strictly protect) told us
that when PM Blair met Erdogan on October 29, Blair told him
to focus the EU's "yes" in December and not get bogged down
in language, continue the reform process, and consider what
Cyprus concessions are doable before December in case
Papadopolous begins to win support for his demands.
EDELMAN