GROWING TURKISH GOVERNMENT FRUSTRATION OVER LACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005195

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2014
TAGS: CY PREL TU
SUBJECT: GROWING TURKISH GOVERNMENT FRUSTRATION OVER LACK
OF MEASURES FOR TURKISH CYPRIOTS

REF: A. ANKARA 5180


B. ANKARA 5115

C. ANKARA 5029

D. ANKARA 4921

E. ANKARA 4886

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: GOT frustration at the perceived lack of
measures to ease Turkish Cypriots' isolation is growing. GOT
interlocutors at all levels have expressed this frustration
to us in recent meetings; Secretary Powell will hear much the
same if he meets with FM Gul at UNGA. For now, the EU is the
primary target of GOT irritation; however, criticism could
soon focus on the U.S. To prevent this from becoming an
irritant, we need to demonstrate concrete progress toward
ending TC isolation, even if it is not as dramatic or as
rapid as the Turks would like. End Summary.

GOT Frustration at All Levels
--------------


2. (C) GOT interlocutors at all levels have recently
expressed frustration to us at the perceived lack of measures
to end TCs' isolation. The EU has been the primary target,
but some interlocutors cast their criticism at a larger
circle:

-- In a September 13 meeting with the Ambassador, MFA Deputy
U/S Ilkin told the Ambassador PM Erdogan and FM Gul feel the
TCs has been put "on the back burner" (ref a);

-- In a September 8 meeting with the Ambassador, TGS DCHOD
Basbug called the lack of measures for the TCs "worrisome"
(ref b);

-- In a September 1 meeting with the Ambassador, FM Gul
expressed strong discomfort at the lack of EU measures for
TCs (ref c);

-- In an August 30 meeting, MFA Cyprus Department Head Bilman
was pessimistic that the EU would be able to overcome GC
obstruction of trade and aid measures for the TCs (ref d);

-- On August 26, MFA Maritime and Aviation Affairs DDG
Gokdenizler expressed impatience at perceived lack of
movement on direct flights between the U.S. and the north
(ref e);

-- On August 18, TGS J-5 Cyprus/Greece Section Chief RADM
Sislioglu told Pol/Mil Counselor Turkey is disappointed over
the lack of "international" response to the TCs' approval of
the April referendum.

More Trouble on the Horizon
--------------


3. (C) Two events on the horizon will sharpen Turkish
frustration. Before December, in order to get a date to
begin EU accession negotiations, the GOT will have extend
Customs Union recognition to the ROC. The Turks hope for a
GC concession, particularly on measures for TCs, to provide
political cover for recognition. Absent a concession, those
within the GOT who push for recognition will come under fire
from a broad coalition of nationalists for failure to gain
benefits for the TCs in return.


4. (C) Our GOT contacts are also focused on Greek Cypriot
property compensation cases in the ECHR. The GOT hoped the
issue would be put to rest with one-time compensation in the
Loizidou case coupled with Annan Plan settlement. ECHR
admission of another case will prompt renewed criticism of
the Loizidou settlement, fears of massive compensation
claims, and wider debate about what Turkey and TCs have
gained in exchange for their pro-settlement stance.

U.S. Not Yet the Focus of Criticism -- But We Could Be
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Thus far, the EU, not the U.S. is the primary focus
of Turkish criticism, both privately and in the media. Most
of our GOT contacts, like FM Gul, acknowledge U.S. efforts.
However, we expect pointed criticism of the U.S. in the near
future if there is a continued perception that the U.S. has
not meaningfully reached out to TCs. As GCs continue to
block and delay EU measures, Turkish hopes will shift to
measures from the U.S., over which the ROC has no veto.
While they recognize that the U.S. cannot provide TCs the
same tangible economic benefits as the EU, the Turks will
look to us to provide symbolic leadership that they assert
will encourage others to follow suit.

All Concrete Measures Help
--------------


6. (C) Direct flights are Turkey's highest priority and the
GOT will react positively to concrete steps to that end --
for example, TSA inspection of Ercan airport. Concrete
measures in other areas also help: in his September 13
meeting with the Ambassador, Deputy U/S Ilkin appeared to
welcome the prospect of a FAS visit to the north.


7. (C) When we take concrete steps, we should make sure the
GOT and Turkish media are aware. Where progress is slow, we
need to explain the difficulties, manage GOT expectations,
and make sure the GOT does not misjudge our political will.
We should make clear to the EU and capitals that reaching out
to the TCs, including bilaterally, promotes their integration
into Europe and overall Cyprus settlement. Even if U.S.
measures for TCs are not as dramatic or as rapid as the Turks
want, our ability to demonstrate concrete progress will
prevent the issue from becoming a bilateral irritant,
preserve pro-settlement sentiment in Ankara, and create the
right atmosphere for Ankara to take more steps toward Cyprus
settlement.
EDELMAN