AMBASSADOR'S APRIL 30 MEETING WITH FM ABDULLAH GUL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002457

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2014
TAGS: AM CY IZ MOPS PHUM PREL TU
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S APRIL 30 MEETING WITH FM ABDULLAH GUL

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958,
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (S) BEGIN SUMMARY. TURKISH FM ABDULLAH GUL HOSTED A
LUNCH FOR AMBASSADOR EDELMAN AND UK AMBASSADOR PETER
WESTMACOTT TO THANK THEM FOR USG AND HMG EFFORTS TO SECURE A
CYPRUS SETTLEMENT BEFORE MAY 1. AMBASSADOR EDELMAN ALSO HAD
A SEPARATE 30 MINUTE MEETING TO DISCUSS OTHER ISSUES IN
PREPARATION FOR THE JUNE VISIT OF PRESIDENT BUSH INCLUDING,
ECONOMIC RELATIONS, IRAQ, GME, ARMENIA, THE STATUS OF THE
ORTHODOX PATRIARCHATE, TURKISH EU ACCESSION AND HUMAN RIGHTS
ISSUES. END SUMMARY.


CYPRUS
--------------



2. (S) ALTHOUGH ORIGINALLY BILLED AS A CELEBRATORY LUNCH FM
GUL AND HIS TEAM (U/S UGUR ZIYAL, DEPUTY U/S ILKIN AND AMB.
APAKAN) WERE IN A DOWNBEAT MOOD. GUL AND ZIYAL SAID THE
TURKS WERE DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED BY THE REVISED EU REGULATION,
BY THE ACTIONS OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY OF THE COUNCIL
OF EUROPE AND THE DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENT AT THE UNSC
THAT HAD BEEN SCRAPPED ON THURSDAY. GUL SAID HE WAS
SURPRISED AND DISAPPOINTED. THE EU FMS IN DUBLIN HAD BEEN
VERY SUPPORTIVE WHEN HE HAD MET WITH THEM BUT NOW HE FEARED
THAT VERY LITTLE CONCRETE HAD BEEN DONE TO IMPROVE THE
SITUATION OF THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS. ZIYAL SAID THE REVISED EU
REGULATION DIFFERED VERY LITTLE FROM WHAT HAD BEEN DRAFTED
PRIOR TO THE REFERENDUM RESULTS. ILKIN STRESSED THAT IT WAS
ESSENTIAL TO GET REAL RESULT FOR THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS IN THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS WHILE PEOPLE WERE STILL ANGRY AT THE GREEK
CYPRIOTS. "AFTER A SHORT TIME MEMORIES AND GOOD WILL START
TO FADE." GUL STRESSED THAT WHAT THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS NEEDED
WERE STEPS TO IMPROVE THEIR REAL LIVING CONDITIONS. ZIYAL
ADDED THAT SYMBOLIC STEPS WERE ALSO IMPORTANT. DE SOTO
VISITING WITH TALAT AT HIS OFFICE IN THE NORTH WAS A VERY
GOOD THING. ZIYAL SAID HE HOPED THE UK HIGH COMMISSIONER AND
US AMBASSADOR WOULD DO THE SAME.



3. (S) AMBASSADORS WESTMACOTT AND EDELMAN TRIED TO ENCOURAGE
THE TURKS TO LOOK AT THE POSITIVE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AFTER AMB. WESTMACOTT REVIEWED THE BIDDING ON THE
EU REGULATION HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH IT HAD ITS DEFICIENCIES
IT REMAINED CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN IT HAD STARTED. THE
TURKS ALL AGREED THAT WHAT MATTERED WAS HOW THINGS WORKED IN
PRACTICE AND WHETHER THE REGULATION COULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN A
MANNER THAT BROUGHT RELIEF TO THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS. AMB.
EDELMAN STRESSED THAT THE TURKS NEEDED TO BE THINKING ABOUT
THE "LONG GAME." THEY NEEDED TO KEEP THEIR FOCUS ON GETTING
AN ACCESSION DATE FROM THE EU IN DECEMBER AND ON "STAYING ONE
STEP AHEAD OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS" WHICH WAS, AFTER ALL, THE
STRATEGY WHICH HAD GOTTEN THEM INTO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION DESPITE EVERYONE'S UNDERSTANDABLE DISAPPOINTMENT
ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE REFERENDUM IN THE SOUTH. BOTH
EDELMAN AND WESTMACOTT, IN THAT CONTEXT, URGED THE TURKS TO
THINK ABOUT STEPS LIKE LIFTING THE PASSPORT RESTRICTION AT
THE GREEN LINE AND POSSIBLY TROOP WITHDRAWALS TO STAY AHEAD
OF THE CURVE.



4. (S) GUL REPLIED THAT THE TURKS VERY MUCH WANTED TO STAY
ONE STEP AHEAD OF THE CURVE AND "HAD THE POLITICAL COURAGE TO
TAKE EVEN MORE STEPS" THAN THEY HAD ALREADY. THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, HOWEVER, IF THERE WERE NO CONCRETE
STEPS TO BENEFIT THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS THAT WERE VISIBLE TO
THE TURKISH PUBLIC. TURKEY IS A DEMOCRACY, HE SAID, AND
PUBLIC OPINION PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE. ZIYAL ADDED THAT
THE PRESS HAD BEEN LARGELY POSITIVE IN TURKEY SINCE SATURDAY
BUT IT WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SOUR A LITTLE BIT AND NO ONE
COULD BE SURE HOW LONG THE CURRENT HONEYMOON WOULD LAST. GUL
SAID THE TURKS HAD TRIED TO CONVEY THEIR DETERMINATION TO
TAKE STEPS IN HIS INTERVIEW WITH POLITIS AND IN MINISTER
SENER'S SPEECH IN BRUSSELS. IN ORDER FOR THE TURKS TO
MAINTAIN THIS POSTURE THEY NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO SHOW RESULTS.
ZIYAL ADDED THAT THE GOVERNMENT NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO REBUT
ITS CRITICS BY DEMONSTRATING THAT "CONTINUING TO STAY ONE
STEP AHEAD IS THE RIGHT PATH." ILKIN NOTED THAT THE TURKS
WOULD HAVE TO WORK OUT REASONABLE MODALITIES TO DEAL WITH THE
GREEK CYPRIOTS. TURKEY BOTH NEEDED TO DO THIS AND WANTED TO
DO IT BUT GETTING THERE WOULD BE HARD. THAT WAS WHY IT WAS
SO IMPORTANT TO GET THE CONTEXT RIGHT. "WE NEED SOME
CONCRETE STEPS ON THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS THAT ENABLE US TO MAKE
THE RIGHT GESTURES TO THE GREEK CYPRIOTS." ZIYAL EXPRESSED
HIS FEAR THAT THE GREEK CYPRIOTS, "ONCE THE DUST HAS
SETTLED," WOULD START TO MAKE TROUBLE FOR TURKEY'S EU
ACCESSION. EDELMAN AND WESTMACOTT STRESSED THAT THIS WAS ALL
THE MORE REASON FOR TURKEY TO CONTINUE ITS POSTURE OF
'STAYING ONE STEP AHEAD OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS." GUL SUMMED
UP BY SAYING THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS NEEDED THINGS LIKE
INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRADE, DIRECT FLIGHTS, SHIP
VISITS AND INCREASED TOURISM. TURKEY WOULD CONTINUE TO DO
ITS PART AND PM ERDOGAN WOULD GO TO ATHENS ON MAY 7-8.


EU ACCESSION AND FURTHER REFORMS
--------------



5. (S) FM GUL SAID THE GOVERNMENT WAS WORKING HARD ON ITS
FURTHER PACKAGE OF REFORMS. THE REFORMS INCLUDED SIGNIFICANT
STEPS TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES AND CIVILIAN
CONTROL OF THE MILITARY. AMBASSADOR WESTMACOTT RAISED THE
CASE OF LEYLA ZANA NOTING THAT IT HAD BECOME A BIG CAUSE
CELEBRE IN THE EU. ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT KNOW THE ANSWER IT
WAS CLEAR THAT IF THE GOT COULD SOMEHOW RESOLVE THIS IT WOULD
BE ENORMOUSLY HELPFUL TO TURKEY'S CASE IN DECEMBER. GUL
SAID, WE WANT TO SOLVE THIS. "IT IS A BIG HEADACHE FOR US.
YOU WOULD NOT BELIEVE HOW HARD WE WORKED TO GET THE STATE
SECURITY COURT TO REVERSE ITS VERDICT, BUT IT WAS
IMPOSSIBLE." THE JUDGES, HE SAID, APPARENTLY BELIEVED THAT
THEY WERE BEING ACCUSED OF SOME PERSONAL FAILING BY HAVING
THE CASE REMANDED BACK TO THEM FOR RETRIAL. "I AM PERSONALLY
QUITE WORRIED ABOUT THIS CASE. WHAT WILL BE DO IF LEYLA ZANA
BECOMES THE FIRST TURK TO WIN THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE? HOW
WILL THAT LOOK?" GUL SAID THAT HE HAD HOPED THAT ZANA AND
HER CO-DEFENDANTS COULD BE GOTTEN OFF WITH TIME SERVED FOR
"GOOD BEHAVIOR." "WE APPROACHED THEM AND THEIR LAWYERS AND
SAID FOR GOD'S SAKE PLEASE STOP INSULTING THE JUDGES SO WE
CAN GET YOU OFF. BUT THEY REFUSED." THE FOREIGN MINISTER
SAID THAT THE WAY FORWARD WAS TO GET THE NEW CONSTITUTIONAL
PACKAGE PASSED. HE ANTICIPATE THIS WOULD HAPPEN IN TWO
WEEKS. THEN THE ABOLITION OF THE STATE SECURITY COURTS WOULD
OPEN THE WAY TO A SOLUTION. THE CASE COULD BE REMANDED TO A
DIFFERENT COURT AND, HE HOPED, A DIFFERENT OUTCOME.


HALKI SEMINARY
--------------



6. (S) AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE LUNCH, THE TWO AMBASSADORS
RAISED THE CASE OF HALKI SEMINARY AS ANOTHER STEP THAT WOULD
BE SOLVE A BILATERAL U.S.-TURKISH CONCERN BUT ALSO ADVANCE
THE CAUSE OF TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY. GUL REPLIED THAT "WE
WANT TO SOLVE THIS ISSUE." THE GOT BELIEVED IN FREEDOM OF
RELIGION AND HAD NO OBJECTION TO THE PATRIARCHATE TRAINING
PRIESTS. BOTH ZIYAL AND ILKIN (SURPRISINGLY) CHIMED IN
NOTING THAT THEY UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO
ORTHODOX COMMUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE
DESIRABILITY OF REACHING A SOLUTION. MINISTER OF EDUCATION
CELIK WAS WORKING ON SOME IDEAS ABOUT HOW TO MOVE FORWARD.
MINISTER GUL NOTED PUBLIC PRESSURE FROM THE U.S. TO SOLVE
THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO REACH AN
OUTCOME THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE TO THE PATRIARCHATE.


IRAQ AND INCIRLIK
--------------



7. (S) AMBASSADOR THANKED THE GOT FOR ITS ASSISTANCE WITH
THE GLOC FOR IRAQ AS WELL AS THE ONGOING TANKER OPERATIONS
AND JUST COMPLETED TROOP ROTATION. HE NOTED THAT THE COUNCIL
OF MINISTERS DECISION, WHICH HAD PROVIDED A RUBRIC UNDER
WHICH MANY OF THESE ACTIVITIES COULD GO FORWARD, WOULD EXPIRE
AT THE END OF JUNE. HE URGED THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS TO
RENEW THIS DECISION. WE MIGHT WELL SEEK ANOTHER TROOP
ROTATION IN THE FALL AND THERE MIGHT BE OTHER POSSIBLE USES
OF INCIRLIK THAT WOULD FALL INTO THIS AREA. GUL WAS
NONCOMMITTAL BUT TOOK NOTE OF AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST. HE NOTED
THAT, ALTHOUGH HE RECOGNIZED THE U.S. HAD ITS HANDS FULL IN
IRAQ AT THE MOMENT, THE PKK ISSUE CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM
FOR THE GOT. RECENT INTELLIGENCE ON WHAT THE PKK MIGHT BE
PLANNING WAS "VERY DISTURBING." HE ASKED THAT THE U.S.G.
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WAYS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE. THINGS WERE
CHANGING IN THE SOUTH EAST. THE AKP GOVERNMENT HAD WON
IMPORTANT VICTORIES THERE IN THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
SHATTERING THE STEREOTYPE THAT KURDS IN TURKEY WOULD ONLY
VOTE FOR A KURDISH PARTY. THIS WAS DEMOCRACY AT WORK BUT IT
COULD WELL STIMULATE THE PKK TO TAKE VIOLENT ACTION TO
DISRUPT THINGS. THE PRESS CONTINUED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
THE GOVERNMENT ON THIS. AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT THE
MINISTER WAS CORRECT ABOUT THE SERIOUS SECURITY CHALLENGES
FACING THE U.S. IN IRAQ. GENERAL BASBUG HAD RAISED TURKISH
CONCERNS ABOUT THE PKK IN WASHINGTON IN HIS MARCH MEETINGS
WITH GENERAL PACE. WORK ON THAT SUBJECT IN WASHINGTON
CONTINUED AND THE AMBASSADOR UNDERTOOK TO REPORT THE
MINISTER'S PERSONAL EXPRESSION OF CONCERN.


ARMENIA
--------------



8. (S) AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT MINISTER GUL HAD BEEN
WORKING WITH FM OSKANYAN ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS. THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE SUMMIT OFFERED AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE SOME
SYMBOLIC STEPS ON OPENING THE BORDER. IF NOT A FULL OPENING
PERHAPS ALLOWING DIPLOMATIC PASSPORT HOLDERS TO CROSS AS A
STEP ALONG A DEFINED PATH TO ULTIMATELY OPENING THE BORDER.
ABSENT PROGRESS ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS IT WOULD BE
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO HOLD THE LINE IN THE U.S. CONGRESS
ON A GENOCIDE RESOLUTION. THE PASSAGE BY THE CANADIAN
PARLIAMENT OF SUCH A RESOLUTION WAS BOTH INSTRUCTIVE AND
CAUTIONARY. THE USG HOPED IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR PEOPLE TO
PEOPLE EFFORTS LIKE TARC TO CONTINUE BUT GOVERNMENTS HAD TO
TAKE SOME STEPS AS WELL. GUL RESPONDED THAT HE UNDERSTOOD.
"WE WANT TO TAKE SOME STEPS WITH ARMENIA AND WE HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERING SOMETHING ON DIPLOMATIC PASSPORT HOLDERS." GUL
NOTED THAT A GROUP OF ARMENIAN CHILDREN HAD BEEN ALLOWED TO
CROSS THE BORDER FOR THE APRIL 23 YOUTH DAY CELEBRATIONS IN
TURKEY AND SOME OTHER GESTURES. HE PROMISED TO PROVIDE THE
AMBASSADOR WITH MORE DETAIL ON THESE MATTERS AND TO THINK
FURTHER ABOUT WHAT MIGHT BE DONE.


ECONOMIC RELATIONS
--------------



9. (S) GUL SAID THAT THE GOT HOPED THAT THE PRESIDENT'S
VISIT WOULD BE "SUCCESSFUL AND HISTORIC." IT WOULD BE
IMPORTANT TO MOVE THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP FORWARD IN THAT
CONTEXT. HE PROVIDED AMBASSADOR WITH GOT'S SMALL EDITS ON
THE DRAFT AGREEMENT LANGUAGE (TRANSMITTED SEPARATELY VIA
EMAIL). HE ALSO ASKED FOR A STATUS REPORT ON THE QIZ.
AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT WE HAD WELCOMED GOT'S
WILLINGNESS TO MOVE FORWARD ON A QIZ WITHOUT REFERENCE TO
TEXTILES. THE USG WAS NOW SEEKING AN APPROPRIATE LEGISLATIVE
VEHICLE TO MOVE THIS FORWARD.
EDELMAN