TURKEY CLAIMS SYRIA AND IRAN SHARE CONCERN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000215

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: EXEMPTION 1.6 X5, X6
TAGS: PREL MARR TU IZ SY IR CY
SUBJECT: TURKEY CLAIMS SYRIA AND IRAN SHARE CONCERN OVER
KURDISH AMBITIONS IN IRAQ

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric S. Edelman. Reasons: 1.5
b and d.



1. (C) Summary: Syria and Iran have expressed concerns to
Turkey about the Kurds' ambition for maximum autonomy over a
greater territory in Iraq, according to MFA U/S Ziyal.
Ankara says it is resisting "ganging up" on the Kurds with
Damascus and Tehran, and is urging the Kurds to be
reasonable. Ziyal told the Ambassador that Turkey would like
a written response to the January 9 letter from PM Erdogan to
the President on Iraq. He voiced the hope that developments
in Iraq would not distract Ankara from focusing its attention
over the next few months to reaching a Cyprus settlement.
End Summary.



2. (C) During a January 12 meeting on another subject with
MFA Under Secretary Ugur Ziyal and other senior MFA
officials, the Ambassador raised Iraq. He noted that the
recent letter from PM Erdogan to the President was thoughtful
and asked whether the GOT expected a response or whether the
letter would simply contribute to the exchange the President
and PM would have on this subject when they meet on January

28. Ziyal confirmed that a written response would be best.



3. (C) Ziyal noted that the Kurds were making a play for
Kirkuk, but they have a "different concept of democracy."
They were moving people into the villages around both Kirkuk
and Mosul, Deputy U/S Ali Tuygun added. They do not hesitate
to use arms to get their way. The Ambassador responded that
the US was also concerned by recent developments in Kirkuk
and has begun taking steps to prevent any group from
effecting change through force, inspecting political party
offices, confiscating weapons, etc. It was important for all
of the communities there to remain calm and avoid provocation



4. (C) Ziyal noted that the concept of federalism in Iraq was
growing and that this was not a good development. He claimed
that both Syria and Iran had approached Turkey about their
concerns for this development. Turkish public concern was
also growing, he noted. The safety of the Turkomen in
northern Iraq would be an issue for Turkey, but the
overriding concern was that the political structure should be
decided democratically and not by the gun. The Ambassador
reiterated US commitment to Iraq's territorial integrity,
noting that CPA was encouraging the Iraqis to develop a
framework that would not risk the break up of the country.
Regarding the Kurds' proposals for greater autonomy, some
Arab members of the IGC were no happier about them than were
Turkey, Syria or Iran.



5. (C) The GOT has been warning the Iraqi Kurds "not to shoot
themselves in the foot again," Ziyal said. They should learn
the lessons of the past; "we do not want Kurds and Arabs
shooting at each other again." PUK leader Jalal Talabani
appeared to be more reasonable, Ziyal observed, noting that
he had some "political acumen," while KDP leader Masoud
Barzani "has gone over the edge of Kurdish nationalism."
Turkey does not want to be pushed back into the tripartite
(Turkey-Syria-Iran) framework, he repeated. Tuygun added
that three-party talks would appear as the neighbors "ganging
up" on the Kurds. Whatever happens, "we don't want the US to
be blamed for it," Ziyal added.



6. (C) The Ambassador noted that the US had a number of
overriding objectives in Iraq that the US has spelled out for
the Kurds: preserving the territorial integrity and
political unity of the country, opposing any change to the
status quo by force, abolishing militias, preserving oil
resources as national patrimony, and central government
control of Iraq's borders. There is a process underway now
addressing each of these subjects, which will continue.
Finally, even after the transfer of sovereignty to a
transitional authority, the US would maintain a strong
military presence to help ensure territorial integrity,
stability and security.



7. (C) Ziyal worried that the Transitional Authority would
simply be a new name for the Governing Council; Jalal
Talabani had told the Turks that the IGC members would
constitute the new body. This will not change the dynamics
in Baghdad, Ziyal lamented. Arab members of the IGC, like
Chalabi, have not developed domestic support and cannot stand
up to the Kurds. (Instead, they may be focusing more on
maximizing their financial gains while in office, he opined.)



8. (C) The point Ziyal said he really wanted to make was,
that in early 2003 an opportunity to resolve the Cyprus issue
was missed because the GOT was focused on the impending US
action against Iraq. The May 1 deadline for a Cyprus
settlement was quickly approaching, and Ziyal hoped that Iraq
would not again distract the parties from reaching a
settlement. (The subsequent discussion of Cyprus is reported
septel--notal.)



9. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
EDELMAN