SUBDUED JORDANIAN REACTION TO ARAFAT'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009210

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014
TAGS: ASEC PREL KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: SUBDUED JORDANIAN REACTION TO ARAFAT'S DEATH

REF: AMMAN 09095

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The drawn-out nature of Yasser Arafat's demise, as
well as the long Eid al-Fitr holiday weekend, ensured that
there was a subdued response in Jordan to the Palestinian
leader's death. Jordan's official reaction was correct: the
PM declared a three-day mourning period nationwide and King
Abdullah attended Arafat's funeral in Cairo. Public
gatherings to honor Arafat, mainly in Palestinian refugee
camps, were small and peaceful. A public demand by Arafat's
Jordanian doctor for an autopsy cemented for many Jordanians
a belief that Arafat was poisoned. End Summary.

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GOJ OFFERS CONDOLENCES
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2. (C) Upon receiving the official word of Arafat's death
early on November 11, the GOJ set in motion its obviously
well-thought out reaction: three days of mourning for the
country (closing schools and government offices) and forty
days for the Royal Court (otherwise a hardly mournful place,
as the King in fact kept a busy public schedule, including
avoidable ceremonial events). The King joined other heads of
state at Arafat's Cairo funeral, and all Jordanian flags were
lowered to half-mast (although unlike the marking of the
death of the UAE's Sheikh Zayed, the enormous flag flying
above the Royal Palace compound -- visible from most of Amman
-- was at half mast for only a day, a truer indication of
Hashemite sentiment toward the man who tried to take Jordan
from them just over thirty years ago). The King designated
Foreign Minister al-Mulki to represent Jordan at Arafat's
burial in Ramallah; Amman MP, and gadfly, Mamdouh Abbadi
headed a Lower House delegation to Ramallah as well.


3. (U) The GOJ issued numerous public statements of
sympathy. King Abdullah sent a condolence cable to interim
Palestinian President Rawhi Fattouh, and offered a special
prayer for Arafat after he and the Queen shared iftar with a
group of orphans on November 11. The Royal Court issued a
statement expressing Jordan's sympathy to the Palestinian
people, describing Arafat as "a man who dedicated his life in
defending the rights of the Palestinian people to establish
their own state." The King told press that Jordan would
continue to support the cause by supporting "fresh peace
efforts," emphasizing that Jordan will always support the
Palestinians in restoring their legitimate rights. "We are
sure that the Palestinian brothers, who realize the current
challenges, will maintain their unity to serve their cause
and overcome such an ordeal," he added. Meanwhile, Deputy PM
Muasher pledged Jordan's full support to the Palestinians to
ensure a "smooth transition" and help revive the peace
process. Muasher made the remarks at Marka Airport in Amman
as he saw Abu Mazen and Fattouh off for Cairo.

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SUBDUED PUBLIC REACTION
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4. (U) The protracted drama surrounding Arafat's demise
appeared to take the steam out of any motivation for public
gatherings in Jordan after his death. Unlike large (and
sometimes violent) demonstrations after Sheikh Yassin's
assassination, Jordanian security sources reported only a few
small, peaceful gatherings in refugee camps after Friday
prayers on November 12. Camp representatives received
condolences for three days, as did the Palestinian mission in
Amman. Approximately 100 university students gathered at the
Palestinian mission briefly to express their sympathy on
November 12. Participants in a small sit-in on November 11
at the Professional Associations complex, ostensibly to
express solidarity with the Iraqi resistance and opposition
to the Fallujah operation, carried portraits of Arafat.


5. (U) Press coverage of Arafat's death was heavy, and many
are expected to have tuned in to satellite television
stations for live broadcasts of Arafat's funeral and burial
on November 12 (notably, Jordan TV did not carry the funeral
live, despite the King's attendance). Other Jordanians
skipped watching the event, preoccupied with preparations for
Eid al-Fitr, which began officially in Jordan on November 14.
In several "man on the street" interviews, Jordanians
expressed their sadness at Arafat's passing, but quite a few
also commented it was just another day for them, and that
Arafat's death made no difference in their personal lives.

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CALLS FOR PALESTINIAN UNITY
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6. (U) Members of Parliament issued statements of respect
for Arafat and called on the Palestinian factions to come
together for the sake of national unity. Amman MP Mamdouh
Abbadi said: "No one can take President Arafat's place but if
the Palestinian factions come together, they may fill the gap
left by his death." MP Bassam Haddadin from Zarqa predicted
that the Palestinians would now take a "more
institutionalized approach in leadership," although this
would take time. Worried that Arafat's death would
exacerbate a rift between the PLO and HAMAS, Abbadi said he
feared that an Islamist leadership "would mean an extreme
leadership that may lead the Palestinian people down a
different path." Islamic Action Front Deputy Hayat Massimi
disagreed: "HAMAS's main concern is not attaining leadership
but liberation," she said.


7. (U) Former PM Abdul Salam Majali, who signed the
Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty with Rabin in 1994, told local
press that he hoped that the Palestinians would "look to the
future as they learn lessons from the past." He added:
"Israel has no excuse now to keep saying we do not have a
partner to establish peace with. However, I hope Israel will
not create a new enemy to hinder future peace efforts."

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LOOKING FOR MORE FROM THE U.S.
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8. (U) An editorial in the English-language Jordan Times
daily criticized President Bush's remark that he hoped to see
a Palestinian state by the end of his new term. "When Bush
says that he envisions...a Palestinian state in four years,
he not only negates the roadmap's critical timetable, which
set 2005 as the time frame for that most important goal, but
he again delays the process of peace-making. By doing so, he
sentences the Palestinians to four more years of Israeli
occupation and four more years in which Israel can continue
its policy of establishing "facts on the ground," thereby
making withdrawal from Palestinian territories a
non-starter."

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RUMORS OF ARAFAT'S POISONING PERSIST
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9. (C) Persistent rumors that Arafat was poisoned
intensified in Jordan after Arafat's personal doctor, the
highly-respected Jordanian physician Ashraf al-Kurdi,
publicly called for an autopsy and full investigation into
the cause of his death. Unsurprisingly, Israel is the main
suspect, but several Palestinian-Jordanians shared their
suspicion with emboffs about the culpability of certain
senior PA officials in the "plot." In their minds, in this
area of conspiracy-driven thinking, the fact that the
officials (including Nabil Sha'ath) strongly dismissed the
possibility of poisoning only further implicated them.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) The timing of Arafat's death -- just before the
holidays ending Ramadan -- and the extensive coverage of his
deteriorating health tempered any potential negative
reactions in Jordan. The public expressions of sympathy
belie almost certain relief among some Jordanians
(particularly among East Bankers, including Jordanian
officialdom) that Arafat has finally gone, creating an
opening for new leaders and an opportunity for progress
toward a two-state solution. Some old-timers are doubtless
glad, having never forgiven Arafat for his role in Jordan's
1970 war. However, Jordanians will remain skeptical of the
new leaders' ability to change much on the ground and are
hoping for strong, tangible support from Israel and the
United States in order to bolster moderate Palestinian
leaders' ability to deliver on the needs of their
constituents.


11. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
HALE