JORDANIANS AWAIT NEWS OF ARAFAT'S FATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009095

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014
TAGS: ASEC KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS AWAIT NEWS OF ARAFAT'S FATE


Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) News of Arafat's impending death and speculation
over succession have dominated Jordanian conversations in the
waning days of the Ramadan season. Many expect that an
announcement of his passing will be marked in Jordan with a
non-violent outpouring of emotion; this initial, sympathetic
reaction is likely to give way to a focus on succession
issues. King Abdullah told visiting congressmen that
regardless of who replaces Arafat in the immediate aftermath
of his continued incapacitation or death, elections should be
held as soon as possible. Most Jordanian interlocutors
expressed optimism that the transition after Arafat's death
would be peaceful, and hope it would provide an opening to
jump-start the peace process. Nearly all called on the U.S.
and Israel to take concrete steps to show support for any new
Palestinian government. End Summary.

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JORDANIANS WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY
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2. (C) Jordanians -- Palestinian-Jordanians and East
Bankers alike -- are following closely the news of Yasser
Arafat's deteriorating health. With no real news on Arafat's
prognosis, rumors proliferate instead, including speculation
that Arafat had been poisoned, that Arafat is worse off than
has been reported, or that he is already dead. Some critics
-- while expressing sadness at Arafat's situation on a human
level -- opine sarcastically that the "powers that be"
(including Suha Arafat) are busily jockeying over power and
PLO/PA coffers, waiting for the opportune moment to announce
his death.


3. (C) Loath to comment on the delicate issue of Arafat's
mortality in public lest it reveal the GOJ's true (negative)
feelings about the Palestinian leader, Jordanian official
reaction has been minimal and respectful. After providing
the helicopters to transport Arafat out of Ramallah on
October 28, King Abdullah spoke once with Arafat by telephone
in Paris on October 31 to wish him a speedy recovery,
according to Jordan's official news agency. FM Mulki said in
an interview: "We in Jordan are following President Arafat's
health condition with interest and wish him quick recovery."
Privately, the King told the Charge that when he first saw
the images of Arafat being transported out of the Muqata'a,
he felt pity for the ailing leader. While no love is lost
between the Hashemites and the Palestinian leader, the GOJ
will tread lightly, recognizing the potential for a negative
backlash from its majority Palestinian population.


4. (C) Royal Court Minister Samir Rifai told Charge that
the GOJ would oppose interring Arafat at the Haram al-Sharif
in Jerusalem (Comment: By all accounts not even a remote
possibility.) Jordan did not oppose his burial on the West
Bank, but Rifai said the King's opinion was the further away
from Jerusalem Arafat is buried, the better. However, Rifai
emphasized that the GOJ would not get involved in this highly
sensitive issue. A funeral or burial in Amman were not
options.

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HOPING FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION, NEW OPPORTUNITIES
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5. (C) Jordanians expect that news of Arafat's passing
would be met with widespread expressions of grief and
sympathy. The GOJ probably will declare a period of
mourning. Peace Corps volunteers report that conversation in
several East Bank villages is dominated by hopes that any
mourning period will dovetail with the Eid holidays, and thus
maximize days off from work.


6. (C) Police contacts who expressed concern when news of
Arafat's illness first broke now downplay the likelihood of
violence, though they have prepared contingency plans, and
are closely monitoring the refugee camps.


7. (C) Most Jordanians expect an initial outpouring of
sympathy to be short-lived as many will quickly focus on
succession issues. Our contacts hope that the leadership
transition will go smoothly for the sake of regional
stability. Indeed, many have told us they see his eventual
passing as a chance to break the stalemate in the peace
process. Rifai said that under any scenario, it would take
time for any leadership to emerge, but Arafat's passing would
almost certainly present an opportunity for positive change
as nothing could be worse than the current situation. PLC
member and political analyst Ghazi Sa'adi (who confided his
belief that Arafat is already dead) told us he expects a
peaceful transition, and that relations with Israel could be
marginally better. He predicted Abu Mazen will emerge as the
next president, but also sees positive signs that a national
government comprised of all factions will emerge. In an
interview, Islamic Action Front Secretary General Hamza
Mansur encouraged national unity as well: "The right option
in the present phase is what HAMAS and the other Palestinian
groups have proposed, which is the formation of a unified
national leadership representing all the groups."

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ELECTIONS SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY
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8. (C) King Abdullah told two separate groups of visiting
congressmen this week that regardless of who replaces Arafat
immediately after his death, Palestinian elections should be
held as soon as possible. Even if Arafat pulls through, he
believes his poor health hinders his ability to lead, and the
"new generation" of Palestinian leaders must be allowed to
emerge. He pointed to Marwan Barghouti as a prime candidate,
and speculated there was more to his relationship with the
Israelis than met the eye.

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ONUS ON ISRAEL, U.S. TO SUPPORT NEW LEADER
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9. (C) Regardless of how Arafat's situation plays out, our
Jordanian interlocutors see a significant role for Israel and
the United States in ensuring a smooth transition to the
post-Arafat era. During his meeting with visiting
congressmen, the King urged that the U.S. and Israel avoid
"the mistakes made when they failed to empower Abu Mazen as
prime minister." As soon as the new leaders emerge, it is
crucial to give them the means to have an impact on the
socio-economic level so ordinary people understand right away
what positive benefits they will receive, according to the
King. Sa'adi echoed this, saying it would "help
tremendously" if the U.S. and Israel could devise tangible
ways to support whatever leadership emerges. Prominent East
Banker Suleiman Arabiyyat told us that doing so would help
the U.S. recoup somewhat its tarnished image in the region.
Jamal Talhat, an East Banker with the National Defense
College, agreed, saying it is in the interest of the
countries surrounding Israel, of the West Bank and Gaza -- as
well as of the United States -- to do anything they can to
support any new Palestinian government.


8. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
HALE