IRAQIS IN JORDAN SHOW LITTLE INTEREST IN RETURNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 000723

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2014
TAGS: PREF PREL EAID KPAL IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN SHOW LITTLE INTEREST IN RETURNING
HOME, WHILE STILL MORE ARRIVE

REF: AMMAN 199

Classified By: CDA David Hale, per 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: A range of embassy contacts
report that Iraqis continue to seek refuge in Jordan, with
only limited returns from Iraq to Jordan. The handful of
voluntary returns in the last six months was limited to new
caseload refugees or individuals with particular reasons to
return to Iraq. The new Iraqi arrivals represent a broad
range of Iraqi society and include some who came to Jordan in
search of humanitarian assistance, and others who fear
retribution. NGO contacts report that old caseload Iraqis
have exhausted their financial resources, while their
employment opportunities have become more limited. UNHCR
acknowledges it has little knowledge of its potential volrep
caseload and has commissioned a profile of the extremely
vulnerable Iraqi population. While some Iraqis and NGOs
report some pressure on the Iraqi population, the presence of
a large Iraqi community has yet to become an overt political
issue in Jordan. Consequently, the GOJ continues to accept
the presence of the estimated 300,000 Iraqis in Jordan and we
have no reason to believe it will move toward a premature
return. End summary and comment.

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Iraqis Continue to Arrive at Steady Pace
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2. (SBU) Jordanian, Iraqi, UN and NGO officials all report
that significant numbers of Iraqis continue to seek refuge in
Jordan. While the GOJ has not provided precise figures of
new arrivals, anecdotal evidence indicates that Iraqis from
across the socio-economic spectrum continue to seek temporary
safety in Jordan. Ahmad Jiralla Al-Dabbagh, the Consul
General at the Iraqi Mission in Amman, told PolOff that the
flow of Iraqis from Iraq to Jordan continues, and that
Amman-based Iraqis he's talked to tell him that they are
waiting for the security situation to improve and for good
job opportunities. Al-Dabbagh added that although many
Iraqis in Jordan are eking out a meager existence, many feel
they would be worse off if they returned to Iraq now. ICMC
Country Representative Clive Cavanagh (who administers a
PRM-funded assistance program for the most vulnerable Iraqis)
estimates that 30-40 percent of ICMC's current caseload
arrived in Jordan after the fall of Saddam's regime. A small
number of these new arrivals (Cavanagh estimated 10 to 15
individuals) told ICMC they came to Jordan specifically for
the medical assistance offered by ICMC. (Cavanagh refused to
provide assistance to these individuals, to avoid creating a
pull factor among needy Iraqis inside Iraq.)


3. (C) On the other end of the spectrum, Amman since the
summer of 2003 has been awash in late-model luxury sedans
with Baghdad license plates, and Jordanians complain that
wealthy new Iraqi arrivals have bid up the price of real
estate. Local Iraqi churches report an increase in the
number of new Christian arrivals from Iraq. Some of these
are undoubtedly former supporters of Saddam fearful of
retribution in Iraq; others may be simply rich enough to come
to Jordan and ride out the present period of uncertainty and
instability at home.

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GOJ Limiting Entry?
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4. (C) Rumors persist that the Jordanian authorities limit
entry of Iraqis to those who can prove they have sufficient
resources either to support themselves in Jordan or transit
to another country. UNHCR staff in Ruweished report that
only Iraqis with USD 20,000 in cash or in banks in Jordan are
allowed to enter the country. While we have not been able to
confirm this report, Embassy Amman's civil-military liaison
officer at the Iraqi border reports that an average of 200
persons are denied entry to Jordan every day. The Jordanian
Armed Forces (JAF) LNO told a member of the Embassy's
Humanitarian Assistance Coordination Center (HACC),that
while there are no definitive monetary requirements for
Iraqis wishing to enter Jordan, they are asked to show
evidence of sufficient funds for the stated purpose of their
visit, i.e., vehicle or apartment purchase. UNHCR
Representative Sten Bronee worries that these rumors, if
true, indicate that the GOJ has a de facto closed border
policy in spite of written commitments made to UNHCR to allow
all asylum seekers to enter from Iraq. (Comment: The GOJ
does seem to have a closed border policy for those asylum
seekers it deems risky on either security or overstay
grounds.)

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While Few Iraqis Choose To Return Home
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5. (SBU) UNHCR, NGO and Iraqi embassy officials report that
only a limited number of Iraqis have chosen to return home in
the last six months. Iraqi Consul Al-Dabbagh told PolOff
January 14 that the majority of Iraqi citizens in Jordan --
regardless of socio-economic status -- plan to remain in
Jordan until security conditions in Iraq improve. According
to UNHCR Senior Protection Officer Jacqueline Parlevliet,
only two of the 7,630 Iraqis registered with UNHCR in Jordan
have informed UNHCR that they wish to return home. (Those
two Iraqis had been accepted for the U.S. refugee
resettlement program and decided to return after hearing from
PRM refcoords that their cases were not likely to be resolved
in the near future.) ICMC Representative Cavanagh reports
that only one beneficiary - a terminally ill cancer patient
who wanted to die in Iraq -- had returned home.


6. (SBU) Legal aid NGO Mizan believes many illegal Iraqi
residents of Jordan are reluctant to leave Jordan, for fear
of losing their ability to return. Under current Jordanian
policy, all Iraqis who have overstayed their residency are
denied legal re-entry to Jordan. The majority of returnees
in the last six months has come from the new caseload,
primarily Palestinians who fled Baghdad in April and May of

2003. UNHCR and IOM estimate that roughly 500 of 2,700 new
caseload refugees have returned to Iraq. Iraqi Consul
Al-Dabbagh told PolOff that he had recently hosted a Danish
delegation seeking his input on the repatriation to Iraq of
approximately 12,000 Iraqis based in Denmark. The Danes his
advice on whether to start repatriating Iraqi asylum-seekers
who now had no claim to political asylum. The Iraqi Consul
told the Danes that the current unstable situation in Iraq
did not bode well for their repatriation and suggested they
wait six months and consult with him at that time.

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Conditions Worsening
For Vulnerable Iraqis
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7. (SBU) UNHCR's NGO implementing partners report that there
are some signs of intolerance toward Iraqis in Jordan.
According to CARE community service workers, Jordanian
authorities have cracked down on illegal Iraqi workers.
While downtown Amman used to be full of Iraqi street vendors,
according to CARE, the only remaining vendors are women who
hide their wares under their hijab at the approach of
Jordanian policemen. These women tell CARE workers that
their male relatives are unable to find work and spend their
days hiding from Jordanian officials. ICMC social workers
echo these views, adding that longer-term Iraqi residents
seem to have exhausted their savings and are unable to find
work. According to ICMC Representative Cavanagh, many Iraqis
in Jordan now need assistance with food and shelter, a need
that did not exist when ICMC began this project in November

2002. We have also heard anecdotal evidence that some
destitute Iraqi women have turned to prostitution.

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UNHCR Commissions Profile of Iraqis;
NGOs Urge Creation of Information Centers
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8. (SBU) UNHCR acknowledges that it does not have a clear
understanding of the Iraqi community in Jordan and has
commissioned CARE to conduct a profile of 2,000 vulnerable
Iraqis between February and April 2004. UNHCR Representative
Bronee told refcoord January 12 that UNHCR lost its primary
means of communication with the Iraqi community when it
halted refugee status determinations in March 2003 and hopes
to reestablish links through the profile. Representatives
from CARE and ICMC were quite critical of UNHCR's ability to
reach the Iraqi community, telling visiting PRM officers
January 19 that UNHCR's low recognition rate (10 percent of
all Iraqi applicants) and rumored close links to Saddam's
intelligence agents had destroyed all trust of the refugee
agency. They urged PRM to fund information centers to spread
news about developments in Iraq and collect information about
the Iraqi community in Jordan. The very limited UNHCR
profiling exercise, they argued, would not be sufficient to
capture the full range of the Iraqi community in Jordan.

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GOJ Provides Assurances on Temporary Asylum;
Move Toward Premature Return Unlikely
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9. (C) In a January 19 meeting with the Iraqi Minister of
Displacement and Migration, Jordanian Minister of Interior
Habashneh reportedly provided assurances that King Abdullah
had instructed the government to maintain the current policy
of temporary asylum for Iraqi nationals. These assurances
echo statements we have received from other Jordanian
officials, including from the Coordinator for UNHCR and
Refugee Affairs (ref). Given the long-term nature of the
Iraqi population in Jordan, as well as the GOJ's careful
scrutiny of the security and overstay risks posed by Iraqis
seeking to enter Jordan, we have no reason to believe the GOJ
will move toward a premature, forced return of the estimated
300,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan. Further, that the 300,000
Iraqis in Jordan are not centralized and are disbursed
throughout Jordan decreases the pressure on the GOJ to push
Iraqis back to Iraq.

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Comment
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10. (SBU) Most Jordanians with whom we speak tend to lump all
300,000 Iraqis in Jordan into one category and consider them
all refugees. At the same time, however, most Jordanians
understand that security conditions in Iraq will discourage
refugee returns in the near term. Since the Iraqi population
in Jordan is not concentrated in camps or isolated
neighborhoods, Jordanians do not feel on a daily basis the
Iraqi community. These two factors should work to put off
any Jordanian popular or government pressure to encourage
large-scale returns.


11. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET
home page.
HALE