FM MUASHER SAYS ISRAELI WALL IS KILLING PROSPECTS

1. (C) FM Muasher told a Senate staff delegation on January
15 that the Israeli separation barrier - "the wall" - is
killing prospects for a two-state solution, and that he
expects negative movement in the peace process this year. He
fears a future partitioning of Iraq if any arrangement is
made to weaken the central government and is concerned about
Iran's influence in the south. On Saudi Arabia, he said that
if there is a change in regimes it "will be to the Bin
Ladens". On Syria, he characterized President Bashar Al Asad
and FM Farouk Sharaa's views on the Iraqi Governing Council's
(IGC) progress as completely different. End Summary.



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Palestine-Israel


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2. (C) Muasher described the PNA as "in total paralysis" and
expects that there will be reversals in the peace process
this year. He described the wall's current location as a
"killer to future prospects for a two-state solution," and he
believes that its construction is not temporary. He stressed
Jordan's strategic interests - to protect Jordan from a
population transfer - arguing that construction of the wall
led to inevitable consequences that would undermine Jordan's
security.



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Iraq


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3. (C) He expressed deep concern that any arrangement made in
Iraq to weaken the central government would lead to a
partitioning into two or three areas, seriously endangering
stability. He said that the Sunnis feel marginalized and
that membership in the IGC should be more representative of
the population. He is worried over Iran's influence in the
south and described the planned withdrawal of U.S. forces in
July as a "disaster".



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Saudi Arabia and Syria


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4. (C) Muasher expressed Jordan's support for Crown Price
Abdullah but said he fears extremism and instability in the
Kingdom. He said pointedly that if there is a change in
regimes, "it will be to the Bin Ladens", not to liberal
democrats. On Syria, he observed that President Bashar Al
Asad and FM Faruk Shara seemed not to share the same view on
foreign policy. Citing a recent trip to Damascus, Muasher
described Shara's opinion of the IGC's progress as extremely
negative but said that Asad took the opposite view.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at

http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/

or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET
home page.
GNEHM