JORDANIAN RESPONSE TO GME INITIATIVE: U.S.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003227

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM PGOV JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN RESPONSE TO GME INITIATIVE: U.S.
CREDIBILITY LOW BUT PROPSALS NOT TOO BAD

REF: SECSTATE 86312

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) In response to ref, Post solicited feedback from our
interlocutors within the GOJ, academia, and the NGO community
about the G-8 Greater Middle East Initiative papers. The
response was generally favorable, but activists cautioned
that implementation will be difficult given low U.S.
credibility in the region related to the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict and Iraq. That said, all agreed that G-8
sponsorship for a regional reform initiative would make it
less controversial than U.S. sponsorship. Our contacts
commended the inclusion of references to previous Arab reform
documents as a way to show how the GMEI complements regional
efforts, and offered suggestions to counter criticism that it
is being imposed from "outside." Activists appreciated the
effort to involve representatives from all sectors of
society, and cautioned against letting resistant governments
make excuses to stall reform. They suggested that
coordinating through the G-8 would also help eliminate
redundancies in regional reform programming and funding, as
well as connect like-minded activists with a view to
increasing cooperation and replicating successful approaches.
End Summary.

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SUGGESTIONS TO ENHANCE GMEI'S REGIONAL FLAVOR
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2. (U) Interlocutors from the GOJ, NGO community, and
academia offered suggestions to further enhance the Greater
Middle East Initiative's (GMEI) "regional flavor" and counter
criticism that the ideas are being imposed from the
"outside." A senior GOJ official who read the papers said
that the initiative's inclusion of language from previous
Arab documents on civil society and democratic development,
including the Alexandria Library, Arab Business Council, and
Sana'a Declaration, was a positive way to highlight the fact
the GMEI is building on regional reform efforts. He said
that the Arab League should take a similar approach when they
meet in May to devise an Arab reform document.


3. (U) Regarding the idea of allocating funding through a
board of directors, one contact proposed selecting "credible"
intellectuals from the region to serve on the board. He also
suggested that the G-8 publicize the meetings held in Arab
countries with local activists (such as the roundtable
discussion in Amman with U/S Grossman) to show that the USG
indeed is making the effort to consult, not impose.


4. (U) They believe the proposed Foundation for Democracy
could select the most appropriate models of democratic
institutions that exist in Europe, the U.S. and other
countries to follow in the Middle East (e.g. parliamentary as
opposed to presidential government, or French versus
Anglo-Saxon legal or educational traditions). A professor of
political science suggests creating equivalent bodies on the
regional and national levels that can connect more
effectively to all levels of the population and advance
democratic tenets in a country-specific and culturally
sensitive manner.

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ACTIVISTS LAUD ALL-INCLUSIVE APPROACH
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5. (U) Interlocutors roundly applauded the proposals'
efforts to include government, business, and civil society
representatives in developing and implementing the
initiative. With regard to the Forum for the Future,
activists emphasized that no one sector should dominate, and
government in particular should not be allowed to veto or
stymie progress in "sensitive" areas such as press freedoms
and women's rights. One suggestion is to hold in parallel to
the G-8 a conference of civil society groups from the region
and democracy NGOs from the G-8 countries, which could then
compare initiatives and assessments of progress towards
democratization.

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AVOIDING DONOR REDUNDANCY IS KEY
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6. (U) Our contacts also approve of the effort to
coordinate donor support among G-8 members. "There is too
much money flying around in different directions" which is
funding often redundant projects, according to one activist.
With regard to the Democracy Assistance Group, the NGO
representatives like the idea of a clearing house which would
ensure donors are not double-funding the same project. They
also support creating a data bank which would register
projects aimed at strengthening democratic institutions in
different countries, so that civil society groups could
benefit from similar experiences in the region.

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HOW TO MAKE IT ALL WORK: STRUCTURAL SUGGESTIONS
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7. (U) NGO representatives and academics like the idea of
forming committees composed of civil society representatives
from participating Arab countries to start the Foundation for
Democracy, Democracy Assistance Group, and the Forum for the
Future, They say it is important that these representatives
be independent of their governments, but enjoy broad trust
among their constituents. However, the challenge will be
determining participation. They warn that identifying
appropriate activists could inadvertently spur individual
competition and jealousies between community leaders. To
avoid this common problem, one solution might be to include a
wide gathering of civil society representatives, possibly
chosen by independent but outside organizations like the
National Endowment for Democracy or the German foundation
Stiftungen, which have experience and contacts in the region.
This large gathering could elect a smaller regional steering
committee of civil society representatives, which could set
regional goals, brainstorm, coordinate funding and oversee
the screening and selection of project proposals.


8. (U) One academic said it is essential that the reform
program have measurable indicators so it does not devolve
into a tool that enhances the (undesirable) status quo or
that the reform effort stalls at the initial dialogue stage.
Obviously, dialogue is essential to make connections and
start the ball rolling, but the initiative will have to
identify and empower specific means and tools for change to
maintain momentum. Clear criteria defining progress would
help ensure that projects translate into real reform (and
societal progress).

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ALL ROADS LEAD BACK TO PALESTINE (AND IRAQ)
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9. (U) Activists worry that low USG credibility in the
Middle East and ongoing turmoil in Iraq and the West
Bank/Gaza will continue to hinder even a G-8 backed
initiative. One warned that many regional leaders will try
to use Iraq and Palestine as an excuse not to deal with
reform in their countries. For the badly needed reform
efforts to succeed, the people, according to our
interlocutors, must be convinced that the U.S. is committed
to a just solution to the conflicts, and they must see a
sincere effort underway to fight what many perceive as
anti-Arab and anti-Islam feelings/activities in the West.
Failure to do so, according to our Jordanian contacts, will
only increase extremism in the region and make the G-8's
reform efforts infinitely more difficult in the long run.

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COMMENT
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10. (U) Our NGO and civil society interlocutors in this
project -- many of whom met with U/S Grossman in March to
discuss the GMEI -- provided positive and concrete
suggestions not colored by a political message. That said,
all pointed to low U.S. credibility on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iraq as the main obstacles
to wide acceptance of the much-needed GMEI. We note that the
positive and constructive reaction from Embassy contacts --
some of whom are interested in USG funding for their own
related democracy and civil society projects -- is not
representative of most Jordanians, who we expect would
calibrate their reaction more closely with the negative
political climate in the region.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page.
GNEHM