Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04AMMAN2882
2004-04-15 18:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

JORDANIANS WORRY CONCESSIONS TO ISRAEL PAVE WAY

Tags:  PREL PREF ASEC KPAL IS JO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002882 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2014
TAGS: PREL PREF ASEC KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WORRY CONCESSIONS TO ISRAEL PAVE WAY
FOR MORE VIOLENCE


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for Reasons 1.5 (b)(d)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002882

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2014
TAGS: PREL PREF ASEC KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WORRY CONCESSIONS TO ISRAEL PAVE WAY
FOR MORE VIOLENCE


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for Reasons 1.5 (b)(d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Jordanian commentators and contacts almost uniformly
criticized President Bush's remarks on April 14 endorsing
Israel's plan to withdraw from Gaza, seeing his statements
about Palestinians' right of return and Israeli settlements
as an inappropriate attempt to prejudge final status issues.
Several contacts said the U.S. statements overshadowed the
positive news of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Commentators and contacts deplored the perceived inattention
to Arab leaders' input and the timing of the announcement,
just days before King Abdullah's meeting with President Bush.
To many, the U.S. concessions to Sharon presented another
embarrassing predicament before the King, who will be hard
pressed to highlight the positive aspects of the plan to an
angry and disillusioned public. Prince Faisal and the
Foreign Minister (septel),however, are clearly focused on
putting the statements in the best possible light. There is
no evidence of public protest, but contacts expect some
protests after Friday prayers April 16. End Summary.

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BUSH HAS "NO RIGHT" TO PREJUDGE FINAL STATUS ISSUES
-------------- --------------


2. (C) There was local criticism of President Bush's
announcement on April 14 endorsing Israel's Gaza withdrawal
plan, which was seen as prejudging final status issues,
particularly the Palestinians' right of return. Many decried
the perceived policy shift on settlements, charging that
sanctioning Israel's retention of settlements in the West
Bank contravenes international law, previous UN resolutions,
and long-standing U.S. policy. Karak Member of Parliament
Atef Tarawni told Poloff that President Bush does not have
the right to "cancel" Palestinians' right to return to their
original home in present-day Israel.


3. (C) Jordan University professor Mohammad Khair Mustafa
said the potential good news about Israel's withdrawal from
Gaza was obscured by the President's decision to stake out a
new public position on final status issues at a time when

anti-Israeli and anti-U.S. sentiment in the region is at an
all-time high. Head of Dar al-Jalil Publishing House Ghazi
Saadi termed President Bush's speech as "very painful,"
particularly with regard to settlements. He worried that the
U.S. agreement to allow Israeli settlements to remain in the
West Bank will significantly reduce the available land to
which Palestinian refugees can feasibly return. "How can we
accommodate those Palestinians who want to return if we have
no land?" he asked rhetorically. He said the President
should have defined under what conditions the "temporary"
wall could come down, and offered guarantees to the
Palestinians in this regard.

--------------
JORDANIANS FEAR DOOR OPEN FOR MORE VIOLENCE
--------------


4. (C) Many contacts recognize that any final agreement
probably would mirror the terms the President defined. At
the same time, they worry that the U.S. assurances to Israel
will embolden Sharon to continue heavy handed tactics against
Palestinians. Specifically, some say that U.S. sanctioning
of Israel's "right to defend itself," and only requiring
Israel to remove "certain military installations" in Gaza,
has left the door open for more targeted killings, ongoing
destruction of Palestinian homes and property, and other
collective punishment measures against Palestinians that will
only intensify the cycle of violence, not improve chances for
peace.

--------------
ANOTHER SLIGHT TO JORDAN
--------------


5. (C) During a meeting to discuss other issues, Prince
Faisal expressed to the Defense Attach his disappointment at
what he considered concessions to Sharon, yet voiced hope
that the vague wording might present the opportunity for
"reinterpretation" more favorable to the Palestinian point of
view. Several contacts criticized the way the U.S. and
Israel appeared to hammer out the terms while seeming to
ignore requests from Arab leaders -- including King Abdullah
-- not to concede to Israel's demand for assurances on final
status issues.


6. (C) Former MP Hamadeh Faraneh told Poloff that the
timing of the announcement, just before King Abdullah's
meeting in Washington with President Bush, was unfortunate,
particularly because many now believe that the U.S. ignored
Jordanian concerns about Sharon's request for U.S. assurances
on the right of return and border demarcation. Faraneh
compared the King's dilemma with the embarrassment the King
experienced when Israel killed Sheikh Yassin just days after
the King met Sharon in Israel. He predicted the King will be
hard pressed to show a frustrated and angry public something
positive from his meeting with President Bush. This point
was captured in Amman's morning papers which featured banner
headlines critical of the President's "concessions" to PM
Sharon, juxtaposed with the Palace's announcement of the
King's impending arrival in Washington.


7. (C) The perceived U.S. rejection of Arab views
reinforces ordinary people's belief that the U.S. is intent
on imposing its will on the region, according to Director of
International Relations at Philadelphia University Dr.
Ibrahim Badran. The U.S. "go-it-alone" approach enhances
popular perception that the U.S. has no interest in working
with its regional supporters to ensure enduring solutions to
the region's problems, according to Al-Quds Research Center
Director and journalist Oreib al-Rintawi. Dr. Badran, a
long-time contact and former negotiator with Israel, told
Poloff that friends of the U.S. in Jordan -- himself included
-- find it increasingly difficult to defend U.S. policies in
the region. He said academics like himself were the last
bastion of reason among a population that is frustrated and
angry with U.S. heavy-handed tactics in Iraq and the
perceived unwavering bias for Israel.

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FRIDAY PROTESTS
--------------


8. (C) There is no sign of public protest in Jordan, but
Friday prayers on April 16 are likely to provoke some
expression of anger, especially among the Palestinian refugee
population. UNRWA officials expect protests Friday
afternoon, but have found refugees to be depressed, rather
than angry, about President Bush's statements about right of
return and Israeli "population centers" in the West Bank.
RSO contacts believe that if protests occur, they will not be
as virulent as Jordan experienced after Sheikh Yassin's
assassination.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) In Jordan, the good news of an Israeli withdrawal
from Gaza and some West Bank settlements has been drowned out
by disappointment at the nearly universal perception that the
U.S. has changed its position on final status issues to the
disadvantage of Arabs. Attempts to explain the strategic
opportunity of Sharon's disengagement plan and the nuances of
the President's remarks, including on final status issues,
tend to be dismissed as "sugar coating" a poison pill.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page.
HALE