JORDANIAN CIVIL SOCIETY REPS QUESTION U.S. STAYING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 001737

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN CIVIL SOCIETY REPS QUESTION U.S. STAYING
POWER ON DEMOCRATIC REFORM

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. Jordanian civil society reps told U/S Grossman March 3
that they supported reforms in the Middle East, but saw deep
mistrust of U.S. motives among Arabs. Most doubted the
ability of the U.S. to carry through on its commitments to
democratic reform. Many asked that the U.S. not impose ideas
from outside, although one thought that the West should
encourage faster reform. All mentioned that a just solution
to the Arab-Israeli conflict was central to regional
perceptions of U.S. motives, U.S. credibility, and the
success of reform efforts in the region. END SUMMARY

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WE SUPPORT REFORM IN PRINCIPLE, BUT...
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2. (C) U/S Marc Grossman met with a group of Jordanian NGO
and civil society activists in Amman March 3 to discuss how
to promote and support reform in the region. He outlined the
key principles underpinning his trip: the best ideas will
come from the region; real, lasting reform takes time and is
never completely finished; the Greater Middle East initiative
(GME) is not a substitute for progress in the Arab-Israeli
conflict, but the conflict should not be an excuse to
postpone reform; the U.S. is acting now because the
conversation on reform in the region has already begun and
will not stop.

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SHORT U.S. ATTENTION SPAN CREATES MONSTERS
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3. (C) The groups responses followed several themes. All
supported in general the idea of reform in the Middle East,
and agreed that while there is a conversation on democracy
and reform, it lagged far behind the rest of the world.
Nearly all, however, expressed strong doubts about the
ability of the USG to follow through on its rhetoric to
support reform in the Middle East, or regain the credibility
it needs to press its ideas. One journalist commented that,
when the U.S. is forced to choose between its interests and
its principles, "its interests always win."


4. (C) Several participants argued that U.S. policies in
the region create monsters because the U.S. loses interest
and fails to complete its job. Usama Bin Laden, several
argued, was "made in America" as a convenient tool to use
against the Soviet Union. Once the Cold War was won, the
U.S. merely cast him aside: "if you raise a lion cub then
let it loose in the neighborhood, it will attack the
neighbors, and maybe even you." Others echoed these thoughts
with regard to Saddam Hussein, whom most believed the U.S.
had supported in the 1980's as a counterweight to the Islamic
revolution in Iran. Again, according to this argument, when
Iran was weakened, the U.S. lost focus on Iraq, and Saddam
was permitted to develop WMD and invade Kuwait. The group
feared that the U.S. reform effort could also end badly for
the region. A human rights activist said that most Arabs
understand the term democracy to mean free elections, and
democratic reforms run the risk of replacing "the tyranny of
an individual with the tyranny of the majority."

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NO TO IMPOSITION OF DEMOCRACY
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5. (C) Nearly all participant asked the U.S. not to impose
reforms on the region. This, they argued, could lead to a
popular backlash that would undermine the reforms themselves.
Even if the U.S. seeks to consult, one academic noted, the
size and power of the U.S. "on the receiving end is
overwhelming" and makes even friendly advice seem like
dictates. While most Arabs believe that reform and democracy
are needed, most also reject the Western model of democracy
because of popular objections to U.S. policy and "hegemony"
in the region. The lack of U.S. credibility in the region is
a major impediment to the success of democratic reform.


6. (C) One academic disagreed and said he would be
disappointed if the U.S. was seeking to support only locally
produced reforms. "If you wait for us to democratize, reform
will take too long." He encouraged the U.S. to push the
governments of the region toward faster and deeper change.
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U.S. POLICIES HAVE HURT DEMOCRACY IN THE REGION
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7. (C) Many Arabs believe that the U.S. is "better off
without democracy" in the region because it can more easily
manipulate dictatorial regimes, and therefore question the
sincerity of the U.S. initiative. The U.S., several argued,
has historically supported regimes in the Middle East that
repressed free political expression. One businessman noted
that he was taught by his parents never to go into politics
even in a time of political openness because that openness
always ended, and those who went too far were always punished
-- they would be jailed, or they and their families would
never be permitted to establish a good career. It will take
time for Arabs to get over their mistrust of the U.S., and of
their own governments.

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...AND DON'T FORGET ISRAEL-PALESTINE
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8. (C) Most participants agreed that "the core of our
problem is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," which the U.S.
must address if the GME is to have any credibility. For many
years, one academic argued, Arab regimes supported by the
U.S. told their people that they had to sacrifice political
and economic development in order to "solve the Arab-Israeli
problem through arms." Arabs were told that democratic
reform and economic prosperity would come after a "just"
settlement. Much of the anger at the U.S., a former diplomat
argued, is due to "the undeserved support of the U.S. for
Israel." "The belief that ignorance and backwardness are the
source of terrorism is wrong: they only provide a source for
recruitment," but the Arab-Israeli conflict drives Arab anger.

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FOCUS ON WOMEN
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9. (C) One women's right activist asked that the U.S. focus
the GME on women "not only as half the population, but as
those who raise the other half of the population, including
suicide bombers." She wondered what kind of values the
mothers of suicide bombers had taught them in their
childhood, and hoped that women educated to be modern and
tolerant would teach their children those same principles.

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PARTICIPANTS
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10. (U) U.S.

U/S Marc Grossman
Amb. Edward W. Gnehm
NSC Staffer Dan Fried
NEA DAS Alina Romanowski
EUR A/DAS Glyn Davies
P Special Assistant Jonathan Carpenter
A/DCM Doug Silliman (notetaker)
PAO Haynes Mahoney

JORDAN
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Nancy Bakir, Women's Rights Activist and human rights advisor
to the PM
Dr. Mohammad Kheir Mustafa, Professor, Jordan University
Amb. Hassan Abu Nimeh, former Jordanian PermRep to the UN,
New York
Jamal Tahat, NGO head and Director, Strategic Studies Center,
National Defense College
Nidal Mansour, Committee for the Defense of the Freedom of
Journalists
Bassem Sakijha, Transparency International, columnist
Walid al-Turk, World Affairs Council, businessman


11. (U) U/S Grossman has cleared this message.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at

http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/

or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET
home page.
HALE